Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hess Midstream LP (HESM)

$29.13

+0.35 (+1.22%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -8,282.62 | 29.13 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 565.80662.40848.301,091.901,203.801,456.911,763.232,133.962,582.633,125.65
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 155.70195.10274.90282.90332416.29503.81609.74737.94893.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 42.6072.10132.40126166.40173.03209.41253.45306.73371.23
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 113.10123142.50156.90165.60243.25294.40356.30431.21521.87
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 47.2020.303.30110.602.2064.4277.9694.35114.19138.20
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 59.806387.9093.20120.30142.69172.69209252.95306.13
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 34.7031.1078.505126.9078.6495.17115.18139.40168.70
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -136.40-235.60-306.40-301.10-163.20-398.98-482.87-584.39-707.27-855.97
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.13
Beta 1.632
Diluted Shares Outstanding 18.32
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 92.66
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.262
Total Debt 2,563.50
Total Equity 533.68
Total Capital 3,097.18
Debt Weighting 82.77
Equity Weighting 17.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 565.80662.40848.301,091.901,203.801,456.911,763.232,133.962,582.633,125.65
EBITDA 155.70195.10274.90282.90332416.29503.81609.74737.94893.10
EBIT 42.6072.10132.40126166.40173.03209.41253.45306.73371.23
Tax Rate 85.53%80.98%77.93%95.12%92.66%86.45%86.45%86.45%86.45%86.45%
EBIAT 6.1613.7129.226.1512.2123.4528.3834.3541.5750.32
Depreciation 113.10123142.50156.90165.60243.25294.40356.30431.21521.87
Accounts Receivable --3.20-24.90-5.30-27.10-22.39-30-36.31-43.94-53.18
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --3.6047.40-27.50-24.1051.7416.5320.0124.2229.31
Capital Expenditure -136.40-235.60-306.40-301.10-163.20-398.98-482.87-584.39-707.27-855.97
UFCF -17.14-105.69-112.18-170.85-36.59-102.93-173.55-210.05-254.21-307.66
WACC
PV UFCF -100.73-166.20-196.83-233.11-276.07
SUM PV UFCF -972.93

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.19
Free cash flow (t + 1) -313.81
Terminal Value -165,163.73
Present Value of Terminal Value -148,208.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -149,181.29
Net Debt 2,561.30
Equity Value -151,742.59
Shares Outstanding 18.32
Equity Value Per Share -8,282.62