Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Howard Hughes Corporation (HHC)

$72.62

+1.84 (+2.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -337.41 | 72.62 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,100.121,064.541,300.54699.491,427.901,702.252,029.322,419.222,884.043,438.17
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 318.10282.78363.74335.19406.44544.14648.69773.33921.921,099.05
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 187.17154.53208.57117.76201.29267.25318.60379.81452.79539.79
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 130.92128.25155.17217.44205.15276.89330.10393.52469.13559.26
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 861.06499.68422.861,014.69843.211,231.871,468.561,750.722,087.102,488.10
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 399.34271.61384.54387.73574.79636.87759.23905.111,079.011,286.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -198.3560.7356.9458.55151.26180.32214.97256.27305.51
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 35.8938.7537.4828.5972.8364.597791.79109.43130.45
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -302.06-625.20-669.61-1.61-1.81-469.93-560.22-667.86-796.17-949.15
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 72.62
Beta 1.392
Diluted Shares Outstanding 52.31
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 12.45
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.44%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.354
Total Debt 4,660.52
Total Equity 3,798.61
Total Capital 8,459.13
Debt Weighting 55.09
Equity Weighting 44.91
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,100.121,064.541,300.54699.491,427.901,702.252,029.322,419.222,884.043,438.17
EBITDA 318.10282.78363.74335.19406.44544.14648.69773.33921.921,099.05
EBIT 187.17154.53208.57117.76201.29267.25318.60379.81452.79539.79
Tax Rate -39.38%22.13%28.57%408.42%12.45%86.44%86.44%86.44%86.44%86.44%
EBIAT 260.88120.33148.98-363.18176.2336.2443.2151.5161.4073.20
Depreciation 130.92128.25155.17217.44205.15276.89330.10393.52469.13559.26
Accounts Receivable -127.74-112.93-3.19-187.06-62.08-122.36-145.88-173.90-207.32
Inventories --137.623.79-1.60-92.71-29.06-34.65-41.30-49.24
Accounts Payable -2.86-1.27-8.8944.24-8.2412.4114.7917.6421.03
Capital Expenditure -302.06-625.20-669.61-1.61-1.81-469.93-560.22-667.86-796.17-949.15
UFCF 89.75-246.03-342.04-155.65235.14-319.82-325.93-388.56-463.21-552.21
WACC
PV UFCF -303-292.56-330.43-373.21-421.52
SUM PV UFCF -1,720.71

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.55
Free cash flow (t + 1) -563.26
Terminal Value -15,866.41
Present Value of Terminal Value -12,111.21

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -13,831.92
Net Debt 3,817.31
Equity Value -17,649.23
Shares Outstanding 52.31
Equity Value Per Share -337.41