Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Hillenbrand, Inc. (HI)
$47.62
+1.05 (+2.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 1,590.20 | 1,770.10 | 1,807.30 | 2,517 | 2,864.80 | 3,341.08 | 3,896.55 | 4,544.36 | 5,299.87 | 6,180.99 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 267.90 | 221.70 | 257.80 | 182.80 | 541.20 | 466.35 | 543.88 | 634.30 | 739.76 | 862.74 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 211.30 | 165.20 | 199.30 | 52.20 | 426.10 | 338.09 | 394.30 | 459.85 | 536.30 | 625.46 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 56.60 | 56.50 | 58.50 | 130.60 | 115.10 | 128.26 | 149.58 | 174.45 | 203.46 | 237.28 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 66 | 56 | 399 | 302.20 | 446.10 | 380.68 | 443.97 | 517.78 | 603.86 | 704.25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 331.30 | 338.80 | 398.50 | 417.60 | 445.40 | 629.21 | 733.81 | 855.81 | 998.09 | 1,164.03 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 151.60 | 172.50 | 176.60 | 385.40 | 411.60 | 392.44 | 457.68 | 533.78 | 622.52 | 726.01 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 158 | 196.80 | 236.20 | 271.60 | 361.30 | 384.39 | 448.30 | 522.83 | 609.75 | 711.13 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -22 | -27 | -25.50 | -35.90 | -40 | -47.73 | -55.66 | -64.91 | -75.71 | -88.29 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 47.62 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.380 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 75.40 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 29.37 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.16% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.362 |
Total Debt | 1,318.50 |
Total Equity | 3,590.55 |
Total Capital | 4,909.05 |
Debt Weighting | 26.86 |
Equity Weighting | 73.14 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 1,590.20 | 1,770.10 | 1,807.30 | 2,517 | 2,864.80 | 3,341.08 | 3,896.55 | 4,544.36 | 5,299.87 | 6,180.99 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 267.90 | 221.70 | 257.80 | 182.80 | 541.20 | 466.35 | 543.88 | 634.30 | 739.76 | 862.74 |
EBIT | 211.30 | 165.20 | 199.30 | 52.20 | 426.10 | 338.09 | 394.30 | 459.85 | 536.30 | 625.46 |
Tax Rate | 32.98% | 47.71% | 31.30% | -224.86% | 29.37% | -16.70% | -16.70% | -16.70% | -16.70% | -16.70% |
EBIAT | 141.61 | 86.38 | 136.93 | 169.58 | 300.97 | 394.55 | 460.15 | 536.65 | 625.87 | 729.92 |
Depreciation | 56.60 | 56.50 | 58.50 | 130.60 | 115.10 | 128.26 | 149.58 | 174.45 | 203.46 | 237.28 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -7.50 | -59.70 | -19.10 | -27.80 | -183.81 | -104.61 | -122 | -142.28 | -165.94 |
Inventories | - | -20.90 | -4.10 | -208.80 | -26.20 | 19.16 | -65.24 | -76.09 | -88.74 | -103.50 |
Accounts Payable | - | 38.80 | 39.40 | 35.40 | 89.70 | 23.09 | 63.91 | 74.53 | 86.92 | 101.37 |
Capital Expenditure | -22 | -27 | -25.50 | -35.90 | -40 | -47.73 | -55.66 | -64.91 | -75.71 | -88.29 |
UFCF | 176.21 | 126.28 | 145.53 | 71.78 | 411.77 | 333.54 | 448.13 | 522.63 | 609.52 | 710.86 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 308.95 | 384.48 | 415.34 | 448.68 | 484.69 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 2,042.15 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.96 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 725.07 |
Terminal Value | 12,165.65 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 8,295.09 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 10,337.23 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 872.40 |
Equity Value | 9,464.83 |
Shares Outstanding | 75.40 |
Equity Value Per Share | 125.53 |