Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hillenbrand, Inc. (HI)

$36.65

-0.05 (-0.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 114.09 | 36.65 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,590.201,770.101,807.302,5172,864.803,341.083,896.554,544.365,299.876,180.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 267.90221.70257.80182.80541.20466.35543.88634.30739.76862.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 211.30165.20199.3052.20426.10338.09394.30459.85536.30625.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 56.6056.5058.50130.60115.10128.26149.58174.45203.46237.28
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 6656399302.20446.10380.68443.97517.78603.86704.25
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 331.30338.80398.50417.60445.40629.21733.81855.81998.091,164.03
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 151.60172.50176.60385.40411.60392.44457.68533.78622.52726.01
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 158196.80236.20271.60361.30384.39448.30522.83609.75711.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -22-27-25.50-35.90-40-47.73-55.66-64.91-75.71-88.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 36.65
Beta 1.391
Diluted Shares Outstanding 75.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 29.37
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.530
Total Debt 1,318.50
Total Equity 2,763.41
Total Capital 4,081.91
Debt Weighting 32.30
Equity Weighting 67.70
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,590.201,770.101,807.302,5172,864.803,341.083,896.554,544.365,299.876,180.99
EBITDA 267.90221.70257.80182.80541.20466.35543.88634.30739.76862.74
EBIT 211.30165.20199.3052.20426.10338.09394.30459.85536.30625.46
Tax Rate 32.98%47.71%31.30%-224.86%29.37%-16.70%-16.70%-16.70%-16.70%-16.70%
EBIAT 141.6186.38136.93169.58300.97394.55460.15536.65625.87729.92
Depreciation 56.6056.5058.50130.60115.10128.26149.58174.45203.46237.28
Accounts Receivable --7.50-59.70-19.10-27.80-183.81-104.61-122-142.28-165.94
Inventories --20.90-4.10-208.80-26.2019.16-65.24-76.09-88.74-103.50
Accounts Payable -38.8039.4035.4089.7023.0963.9174.5386.92101.37
Capital Expenditure -22-27-25.50-35.90-40-47.73-55.66-64.91-75.71-88.29
UFCF 176.21126.28145.5371.78411.77333.54448.13522.63609.52710.86
WACC
PV UFCF 307.49380.88409.51440.30473.41
SUM PV UFCF 2,011.59

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.47
Free cash flow (t + 1) 725.07
Terminal Value 11,206.69
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,463.27

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 9,474.86
Net Debt 872.40
Equity Value 8,602.46
Shares Outstanding 75.40
Equity Value Per Share 114.09