Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hindustan Oil Exploration Company L... (HINDOILEXP.NS)

130.1 ₹

-0.80 (-0.61%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -3,653.78 | 130.1 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	487.13	2,651.41	2,020.55	1,138.65	1,557.25	3,167.53	6,442.92	13,105.22	26,656.69	54,221.07
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	470.12	2,023.47	1,720.47	809.83	521.05	2,296.81	4,671.84	9,502.76	19,329.10	39,316.37
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	385.43	1,585.39	1,426.61	576.17	258.91	1,753.23	3,566.17	7,253.76	14,754.52	30,011.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	84.69	438.08	293.86	233.65	262.15	543.58	1,105.67	2,249	4,574.57	9,304.91
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,349.55	1,473.88	1,710.80	922.67	1,052.72	3,585.23	7,292.55	14,833.41	30,171.92	61,371.23
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	282.75	278.29	265.87	360.96	309.84	844.44	1,717.63	3,493.74	7,106.45	14,454.89
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	180.69	162.76	658.86	362.39	379.20	836.33	1,701.13	3,460.19	7,038.21	14,316.08
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-567.30	-1,183.19	-3,029.56	-2,066.15	-2,659.96	-4,201.98	-8,547.05	-17,385.13	-35,362.24	-71,928.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 130.1
Beta	1.057
Diluted Shares Outstanding	132.41
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-1.57
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.74%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.504
Total Debt	3,573.43
Total Equity	17,226.36
Total Capital	20,799.79
Debt Weighting	17.18
Equity Weighting	82.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	487.13	2,651.41	2,020.55	1,138.65	1,557.25	3,167.53	6,442.92	13,105.22	26,656.69	54,221.07
EBITDA	470.12	2,023.47	1,720.47	809.83	521.05	2,296.81	4,671.84	9,502.76	19,329.10	39,316.37
EBIT	385.43	1,585.39	1,426.61	576.17	258.91	1,753.23	3,566.17	7,253.76	14,754.52	30,011.46
Tax Rate	0.00%	0.08%	-0.19%	-3.08%	-1.57%	-0.95%	-0.95%	-0.95%	-0.95%	-0.95%
EBIAT	385.43	1,584.12	1,429.28	593.90	262.97	1,769.90	3,600.07	7,322.73	14,894.81	30,296.81
Depreciation	84.69	438.08	293.86	233.65	262.15	543.58	1,105.67	2,249	4,574.57	9,304.91
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	4.46	12.41	-95.08	51.11	-534.59	-873.19	-1,776.12	-3,612.71	-7,348.44
Accounts Payable	-	-17.92	496.09	-296.47	16.82	457.13	864.81	1,759.06	3,578.02	7,277.87
Capital Expenditure	-567.30	-1,183.19	-3,029.56	-2,066.15	-2,659.96	-4,201.98	-8,547.05	-17,385.13	-35,362.24	-71,928.60
UFCF	-97.18	825.55	-797.91	-1,630.15	-2,066.92	-1,965.96	-3,849.68	-7,830.46	-15,927.55	-32,397.44
WACC
PV UFCF						-1,831.53	-3,341.20	-6,331.44	-11,997.82	-22,735.41
SUM PV UFCF										-46,237.39

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.34
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-33,045.39
Terminal Value	-618,827.50
Present Value of Terminal Value	-434,271.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-480,509.21
Net Debt	3,282.21
Equity Value	-483,791.43
Shares Outstanding	132.41
Equity Value Per Share	-3,653.78