Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. (HLF)

$17.24

-0.45 (-2.54%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 111.77 | 17.24 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,427.704,891.804,877.105,541.805,802.806,216.546,659.787,134.627,643.318,188.28
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 731.80745.60702.10749.70821.50918.19983.661,053.791,128.921,209.42
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 632645.20604.40649.40713.90794.18850.81911.47976.461,046.08
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 99.80100.4097.70100.30107.60124.01132.85142.32152.47163.34
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,278.801,198.90839.401,045.40601.501,241.201,329.701,424.511,526.081,634.89
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 93.3070.5079.7083.3066.9097.46104.41111.85119.83128.37
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 341.20381.80436.20501.40575.70539.89578.38619.62663.80711.13
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 67.8081.1081.6088.7092100.06107.20114.84123.03131.80
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -95.50-84-106.10-112-151.40-132.78-142.25-152.39-163.26-174.90
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.24
Beta 1.155
Diluted Shares Outstanding 108.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.26
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.06%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.043
Total Debt 3,006.60
Total Equity 1,867.09
Total Capital 4,873.69
Debt Weighting 61.69
Equity Weighting 38.31
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,427.704,891.804,877.105,541.805,802.806,216.546,659.787,134.627,643.318,188.28
EBITDA 731.80745.60702.10749.70821.50918.19983.661,053.791,128.921,209.42
EBIT 632645.20604.40649.40713.90794.18850.81911.47976.461,046.08
Tax Rate 54.61%36.11%31.10%27.85%20.26%33.98%33.98%33.98%33.98%33.98%
EBIAT 286.89412.25416.41468.56569.29524.29561.68601.72644.63690.59
Depreciation 99.80100.4097.70100.30107.60124.01132.85142.32152.47163.34
Accounts Receivable -22.80-9.20-3.6016.40-30.56-6.95-7.44-7.97-8.54
Inventories --40.60-54.40-65.20-74.3035.81-38.49-41.24-44.18-47.33
Accounts Payable -13.300.507.103.308.067.137.648.198.77
Capital Expenditure -95.50-84-106.10-112-151.40-132.78-142.25-152.39-163.26-174.90
UFCF 291.19424.15344.91395.16470.89528.84513.97550.61589.87631.93
WACC
PV UFCF 499.05457.69462.70467.76472.88
SUM PV UFCF 2,360.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.97
Free cash flow (t + 1) 644.57
Terminal Value 16,235.94
Present Value of Terminal Value 12,149.62

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 14,509.69
Net Debt 2,405.10
Equity Value 12,104.59
Shares Outstanding 108.30
Equity Value Per Share 111.77