Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

High Liner Foods Incorporated (HLF.TO)

$13.73

-0.12 (-0.87%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 28.35 | 13.73 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,053.85	1,048.53	942.22	827.45	875.41	838.14	802.46	768.29	735.59	704.27
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	49.88	61.17	58.06	78.09	86.27	60.38	57.81	55.35	52.99	50.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	33.57	43.40	35.60	54.86	63.19	41.82	40.04	38.34	36.71	35.14
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	16.31	17.77	22.45	23.23	23.08	18.56	17.77	17.01	16.29	15.59
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	5.31	12.07	3.38	33.15	0.98	10.28	9.84	9.42	9.02	8.64
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	105.93	91.28	88.58	63.54	92.99	77.88	74.56	71.39	68.35	65.44
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	353.43	301.41	294.91	250.86	308.18	266.70	255.35	244.48	234.07	224.11
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	198.33	146.99	122.50	98.92	149.47	125.50	120.16	115.04	110.14	105.45
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-26.49	-13.96	-6.57	-8.95	-20.32	-13.32	-12.75	-12.21	-11.69	-11.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 13.73
Beta	0.713
Diluted Shares Outstanding	33.85
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	13.92
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.342
Total Debt	266.19
Total Equity	464.81
Total Capital	731
Debt Weighting	36.41
Equity Weighting	63.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,053.85	1,048.53	942.22	827.45	875.41	838.14	802.46	768.29	735.59	704.27
EBITDA	49.88	61.17	58.06	78.09	86.27	60.38	57.81	55.35	52.99	50.74
EBIT	33.57	43.40	35.60	54.86	63.19	41.82	40.04	38.34	36.71	35.14
Tax Rate	-80.48%	26.63%	29.16%	21.46%	13.92%	2.14%	2.14%	2.14%	2.14%	2.14%
EBIAT	60.58	31.84	25.22	43.09	54.39	40.93	39.19	37.52	35.92	34.39
Depreciation	16.31	17.77	22.45	23.23	23.08	18.56	17.77	17.01	16.29	15.59
Accounts Receivable	-	14.64	2.70	25.05	-29.46	15.11	3.32	3.17	3.04	2.91
Inventories	-	52.02	6.50	44.05	-57.32	41.48	11.35	10.87	10.41	9.96
Accounts Payable	-	-51.34	-24.49	-23.58	50.55	-23.97	-5.34	-5.12	-4.90	-4.69
Capital Expenditure	-26.49	-13.96	-6.57	-8.95	-20.32	-13.32	-12.75	-12.21	-11.69	-11.19
UFCF	50.40	50.98	25.81	102.88	20.93	78.79	53.53	51.25	49.07	46.98
WACC
PV UFCF						74.55	47.92	43.41	39.32	35.62
SUM PV UFCF										240.83

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.69
Free cash flow (t + 1)	47.92
Terminal Value	1,298.61
Present Value of Terminal Value	984.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,225.54
Net Debt	265.74
Equity Value	959.80
Shares Outstanding	33.85
Equity Value Per Share	28.35