Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
High Liner Foods Incorporated (HLF.TO)
$12.98
+0.12 (+0.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,053.85 | 1,048.53 | 942.22 | 827.45 | 875.41 | 838.14 | 802.46 | 768.29 | 735.59 | 704.27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 49.88 | 61.17 | 58.06 | 78.09 | 86.27 | 60.38 | 57.81 | 55.35 | 52.99 | 50.74 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 33.57 | 43.40 | 35.60 | 54.86 | 63.19 | 41.82 | 40.04 | 38.34 | 36.71 | 35.14 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 16.31 | 17.77 | 22.45 | 23.23 | 23.08 | 18.56 | 17.77 | 17.01 | 16.29 | 15.59 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 5.31 | 12.07 | 3.38 | 33.15 | 0.98 | 10.28 | 9.84 | 9.42 | 9.02 | 8.64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 105.93 | 91.28 | 88.58 | 63.54 | 92.99 | 77.88 | 74.56 | 71.39 | 68.35 | 65.44 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 353.43 | 301.41 | 294.91 | 250.86 | 308.18 | 266.70 | 255.35 | 244.48 | 234.07 | 224.11 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 198.33 | 146.99 | 122.50 | 98.92 | 149.47 | 125.50 | 120.16 | 115.04 | 110.14 | 105.45 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -26.49 | -13.96 | -6.57 | -8.95 | -20.32 | -13.32 | -12.75 | -12.21 | -11.69 | -11.19 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 12.98 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.681 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 33.85 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 13.92 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.56% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.135 |
| Total Debt | 266.19 |
| Total Equity | 439.42 |
| Total Capital | 705.61 |
| Debt Weighting | 37.72 |
| Equity Weighting | 62.28 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,053.85 | 1,048.53 | 942.22 | 827.45 | 875.41 | 838.14 | 802.46 | 768.29 | 735.59 | 704.27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 49.88 | 61.17 | 58.06 | 78.09 | 86.27 | 60.38 | 57.81 | 55.35 | 52.99 | 50.74 |
| EBIT | 33.57 | 43.40 | 35.60 | 54.86 | 63.19 | 41.82 | 40.04 | 38.34 | 36.71 | 35.14 |
| Tax Rate | -80.48% | 26.63% | 29.16% | 21.46% | 13.92% | 2.14% | 2.14% | 2.14% | 2.14% | 2.14% |
| EBIAT | 60.58 | 31.84 | 25.22 | 43.09 | 54.39 | 40.93 | 39.19 | 37.52 | 35.92 | 34.39 |
| Depreciation | 16.31 | 17.77 | 22.45 | 23.23 | 23.08 | 18.56 | 17.77 | 17.01 | 16.29 | 15.59 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 14.64 | 2.70 | 25.05 | -29.46 | 15.11 | 3.32 | 3.17 | 3.04 | 2.91 |
| Inventories | - | 52.02 | 6.50 | 44.05 | -57.32 | 41.48 | 11.35 | 10.87 | 10.41 | 9.96 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -51.34 | -24.49 | -23.58 | 50.55 | -23.97 | -5.34 | -5.12 | -4.90 | -4.69 |
| Capital Expenditure | -26.49 | -13.96 | -6.57 | -8.95 | -20.32 | -13.32 | -12.75 | -12.21 | -11.69 | -11.19 |
| UFCF | 50.40 | 50.98 | 25.81 | 102.88 | 20.93 | 78.79 | 53.53 | 51.25 | 49.07 | 46.98 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 74.22 | 47.50 | 42.84 | 38.63 | 34.84 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 238.03 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.16 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 47.92 |
| Terminal Value | 1,151.90 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 854.30 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,092.32 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 265.74 |
| Equity Value | 826.58 |
| Shares Outstanding | 33.85 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 24.42 |