Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Harmonic Inc. (HLIT)

$14.91

+0.15 (+1.02%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -7.74 | 14.91 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 358.25403.56402.87378.83507.15558.35614.72676.78745.11820.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -50.7115.7924.66132.552.863.153.473.824.20
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -73.63-5.555.06-14.7119.50-23.13-25.46-28.03-30.86-33.98
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 22.9221.3419.6115.7113.0525.9928.6131.5034.6838.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 57.0265.9993.0698.65133.43120.29132.43145.80160.52176.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 76.4592.93109.8176.0396.63123.67136.16149.91165.04181.70
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 25.9825.6429.0435.0371.2049.2454.2259.6965.7272.35
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 33.1133.7840.9323.5464.4352.1457.4063.2069.5876.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -11.40-7.04-10.33-32.20-12.98-20.72-22.81-25.11-27.64-30.44
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.91
Beta 0.875
Diluted Shares Outstanding 106.17
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -49.41
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.59%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.819
Total Debt 190.21
Total Equity 1,583.01
Total Capital 1,773.22
Debt Weighting 10.73
Equity Weighting 89.27
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 358.25403.56402.87378.83507.15558.35614.72676.78745.11820.33
EBITDA -50.7115.7924.66132.552.863.153.473.824.20
EBIT -73.63-5.555.06-14.7119.50-23.13-25.46-28.03-30.86-33.98
Tax Rate 2.07%-24.11%10.19%-11.65%-49.41%-14.58%-14.58%-14.58%-14.58%-14.58%
EBIAT -72.11-6.884.54-16.4229.13-26.50-29.18-32.12-35.36-38.93
Depreciation 22.9221.3419.6115.7113.0525.9928.6131.5034.6838.18
Accounts Receivable --16.48-16.8833.79-20.60-27.04-12.49-13.75-15.13-16.66
Inventories -0.34-3.40-5.99-36.1621.95-4.97-5.47-6.03-6.63
Accounts Payable -0.677.16-17.3940.89-12.295.265.806.387.02
Capital Expenditure -11.40-7.04-10.33-32.20-12.97-20.72-22.81-25.11-27.64-30.44
UFCF -60.58-8.070.69-22.5113.33-38.61-35.56-39.15-43.11-47.46
WACC
PV UFCF -35.89-30.73-31.45-32.18-32.94
SUM PV UFCF -163.18

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.58
Free cash flow (t + 1) -48.41
Terminal Value -867.54
Present Value of Terminal Value -602.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -765.23
Net Debt 56.78
Equity Value -822.01
Shares Outstanding 106.17
Equity Value Per Share -7.74