Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC)

$25.53

+0.28 (+1.11%)
Financial Summary
Financial Statements
Quarter Financials
Chart
Financial Ratios
Profile
Historical Data
DCFDCF Levered
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -24,708.43 | 25.53 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 15,361,14615,888,617.0314,931,008.9713,170,518.9414,552,695.8914,411,186.9314,271,053.9914,132,283.6813,994,862.7713,858,778.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,771,7341,648,317.071,460,298.071,514,150.031,644,486.071,570,389.781,555,119.461,539,997.641,525,022.861,510,193.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,058,641.03926,622.08760,421.06889,911.021,033,423.03912,938.60904,061.28895,270.28886,564.76877,943.89
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 713,092.97721,694.99699,877.01624,239611,063.04657,451.17651,058.18644,727.36638,458.09632,249.79
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 2,469,665.052,657,395.032,862,405.963,053,326.943,892,673.992,937,150.922,908,590.362,880,307.522,852,299.702,824,564.22
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,641,161.962,744,878.072,512,266.932,596,467.982,590,881.062,559,803.072,534,911.802,510,262.582,485,853.032,461,680.85
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,523,455.021,586,786.971,560,5681,545,600.041,918,547.971,593,160.891,577,669.161,562,328.061,547,136.141,532,091.94
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,224,626.971,184,882.02958,468.951,088,060.951,236,233.031,112,693.361,101,873.641,091,159.131,080,548.811,070,041.66
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -572,489.94-607,806.97-601,257.99-551,136.96-449,226.01-543,322.50-538,039.29-532,807.45-527,626.48-522,495.89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25.53
Beta 0.793
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,719.96
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 33.93
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.14%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.351
Total Debt 8,102,556
Total Equity 43,910.63
Total Capital 8,146,466.63
Debt Weighting 99.46
Equity Weighting 0.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 15,361,14615,888,617.0314,931,008.9713,170,518.9414,552,695.8914,411,186.9314,271,053.9914,132,283.6813,994,862.7713,858,778.12
EBITDA 1,771,7341,648,317.071,460,298.071,514,150.031,644,486.071,570,389.781,555,119.461,539,997.641,525,022.861,510,193.69
EBIT 1,058,641.03926,622.08760,421.06889,911.021,033,423.03912,938.60904,061.28895,270.28886,564.76877,943.89
Tax Rate 4.99%37.68%42.30%28.08%33.93%29.40%29.40%29.40%29.40%29.40%
EBIAT 1,005,815.93577,442.02438,727.63640,061.08682,775.32644,563.52638,295.85632,089.12625,942.75619,856.14
Depreciation 713,092.97721,694.99699,877.01624,239611,063.04657,451.17651,058.18644,727.36638,458.09632,249.79
Accounts Receivable --103,716.12232,611.14-84,201.045,586.9131,077.9924,891.2724,649.2324,409.5424,172.19
Inventories --63,331.9526,218.9614,967.96-372,947.93325,387.0715,491.7415,341.1015,191.9215,044.20
Accounts Payable --39,744.95-226,413.07129,592.01148,172.08-123,539.67-10,819.72-10,714.51-10,610.32-10,507.15
Capital Expenditure -572,490-607,807-601,258-551,137-449,226-543,322.50-538,039.29-532,807.45-527,626.48-522,495.89
UFCF 1,146,418.96484,537.02569,763.68773,522.06625,423.42991,617.58780,878.03773,284.85765,765.51758,319.28
WACC
PV UFCF 989,835.88778,074.44769,124.10760,276.72751,531.11
SUM PV UFCF 4,048,842.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 0.18
Free cash flow (t + 1) 773,485.67
Terminal Value -42,499,212.37
Present Value of Terminal Value -42,118,776.28

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -38,069,934.03
Net Debt 4,427,625
Equity Value -42,497,559.03
Shares Outstanding 1,719.96
Equity Value Per Share -24,708.43