Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC)
$25.53
+0.28 (+1.11%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 15,361,146 | 15,888,617.03 | 14,931,008.97 | 13,170,518.94 | 14,552,695.89 | 14,411,186.93 | 14,271,053.99 | 14,132,283.68 | 13,994,862.77 | 13,858,778.12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,771,734 | 1,648,317.07 | 1,460,298.07 | 1,514,150.03 | 1,644,486.07 | 1,570,389.78 | 1,555,119.46 | 1,539,997.64 | 1,525,022.86 | 1,510,193.69 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,058,641.03 | 926,622.08 | 760,421.06 | 889,911.02 | 1,033,423.03 | 912,938.60 | 904,061.28 | 895,270.28 | 886,564.76 | 877,943.89 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 713,092.97 | 721,694.99 | 699,877.01 | 624,239 | 611,063.04 | 657,451.17 | 651,058.18 | 644,727.36 | 638,458.09 | 632,249.79 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 2,469,665.05 | 2,657,395.03 | 2,862,405.96 | 3,053,326.94 | 3,892,673.99 | 2,937,150.92 | 2,908,590.36 | 2,880,307.52 | 2,852,299.70 | 2,824,564.22 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2,641,161.96 | 2,744,878.07 | 2,512,266.93 | 2,596,467.98 | 2,590,881.06 | 2,559,803.07 | 2,534,911.80 | 2,510,262.58 | 2,485,853.03 | 2,461,680.85 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,523,455.02 | 1,586,786.97 | 1,560,568 | 1,545,600.04 | 1,918,547.97 | 1,593,160.89 | 1,577,669.16 | 1,562,328.06 | 1,547,136.14 | 1,532,091.94 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,224,626.97 | 1,184,882.02 | 958,468.95 | 1,088,060.95 | 1,236,233.03 | 1,112,693.36 | 1,101,873.64 | 1,091,159.13 | 1,080,548.81 | 1,070,041.66 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -572,489.94 | -607,806.97 | -601,257.99 | -551,136.96 | -449,226.01 | -543,322.50 | -538,039.29 | -532,807.45 | -527,626.48 | -522,495.89 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 25.53 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.793 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,719.96 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 33.93 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.14% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.351 |
Total Debt | 8,102,556 |
Total Equity | 43,910.63 |
Total Capital | 8,146,466.63 |
Debt Weighting | 99.46 |
Equity Weighting | 0.54 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 15,361,146 | 15,888,617.03 | 14,931,008.97 | 13,170,518.94 | 14,552,695.89 | 14,411,186.93 | 14,271,053.99 | 14,132,283.68 | 13,994,862.77 | 13,858,778.12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,771,734 | 1,648,317.07 | 1,460,298.07 | 1,514,150.03 | 1,644,486.07 | 1,570,389.78 | 1,555,119.46 | 1,539,997.64 | 1,525,022.86 | 1,510,193.69 |
EBIT | 1,058,641.03 | 926,622.08 | 760,421.06 | 889,911.02 | 1,033,423.03 | 912,938.60 | 904,061.28 | 895,270.28 | 886,564.76 | 877,943.89 |
Tax Rate | 4.99% | 37.68% | 42.30% | 28.08% | 33.93% | 29.40% | 29.40% | 29.40% | 29.40% | 29.40% |
EBIAT | 1,005,815.93 | 577,442.02 | 438,727.63 | 640,061.08 | 682,775.32 | 644,563.52 | 638,295.85 | 632,089.12 | 625,942.75 | 619,856.14 |
Depreciation | 713,092.97 | 721,694.99 | 699,877.01 | 624,239 | 611,063.04 | 657,451.17 | 651,058.18 | 644,727.36 | 638,458.09 | 632,249.79 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -103,716.12 | 232,611.14 | -84,201.04 | 5,586.91 | 31,077.99 | 24,891.27 | 24,649.23 | 24,409.54 | 24,172.19 |
Inventories | - | -63,331.95 | 26,218.96 | 14,967.96 | -372,947.93 | 325,387.07 | 15,491.74 | 15,341.10 | 15,191.92 | 15,044.20 |
Accounts Payable | - | -39,744.95 | -226,413.07 | 129,592.01 | 148,172.08 | -123,539.67 | -10,819.72 | -10,714.51 | -10,610.32 | -10,507.15 |
Capital Expenditure | -572,490 | -607,807 | -601,258 | -551,137 | -449,226 | -543,322.50 | -538,039.29 | -532,807.45 | -527,626.48 | -522,495.89 |
UFCF | 1,146,418.96 | 484,537.02 | 569,763.68 | 773,522.06 | 625,423.42 | 991,617.58 | 780,878.03 | 773,284.85 | 765,765.51 | 758,319.28 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 989,835.88 | 778,074.44 | 769,124.10 | 760,276.72 | 751,531.11 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 4,048,842.24 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 0.18 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 773,485.67 |
Terminal Value | -42,499,212.37 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -42,118,776.28 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -38,069,934.03 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 4,427,625 |
Equity Value | -42,497,559.03 |
Shares Outstanding | 1,719.96 |
Equity Value Per Share | -24,708.43 |