Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Thales S.A. (HO.PA)

121.4 €

+0.40 (+0.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 193.53 | 121.4 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 15,795.4015,854.7018,401.1016,988.9016,19216,356.8016,523.2716,691.4316,861.3117,032.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,671.801,854.702,667.201,853.902,380.202,040.982,061.752,082.732,103.932,125.34
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,167.701,369.701,554.70675.901,317.601,197.201,209.391,221.701,234.131,246.69
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 504.104851,112.501,1781,062.60843.77852.36861.04869.80878.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 4,607.705,887.502,931.405,003.905,049.404,673.934,721.504,769.554,818.104,867.13
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,803.403,080.603,731.303,508.503,3363,229.173,262.043,295.243,328.783,362.66
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,652.602,674.302,960.505,9982,069.203,200.513,233.093,265.993,299.233,332.81
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -438.90-393.20-503.30-395.40-450.80-428.72-433.09-437.49-441.95-446.44
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 121.4
Beta 0.697
Diluted Shares Outstanding 212.89
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 6.50
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.28%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.138
Total Debt 5,921.40
Total Equity 25,844.60
Total Capital 31,766
Debt Weighting 18.64
Equity Weighting 81.36
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 15,795.4015,854.7018,401.1016,988.9016,19216,356.8016,523.2716,691.4316,861.3117,032.92
EBITDA 1,671.801,854.702,667.201,853.902,380.202,040.982,061.752,082.732,103.932,125.34
EBIT 1,167.701,369.701,554.70675.901,317.601,197.201,209.391,221.701,234.131,246.69
Tax Rate 28.63%26.85%22.49%16.97%6.50%20.29%20.29%20.29%20.29%20.29%
EBIAT 833.401,001.991,204.99561.201,231.95954.32964.03973.84983.75993.76
Depreciation 504.104851,112.501,1781,062.60843.77852.36861.04869.80878.65
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --277.20-650.70222.80172.50106.83-32.87-33.20-33.54-33.88
Accounts Payable -21.70286.203,037.50-3,928.801,131.3132.5732.9033.2433.58
Capital Expenditure -438.90-393.20-503.30-395.40-450.80-428.72-433.09-437.49-441.95-446.44
UFCF 898.60838.291,449.694,604.10-1,912.552,607.501,383.011,397.091,411.311,425.67
WACC
PV UFCF 2,477.911,248.961,198.961,150.971,104.90
SUM PV UFCF 7,181.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.23
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,454.18
Terminal Value 45,021.18
Present Value of Terminal Value 34,891.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 42,073.14
Net Debt 872
Equity Value 41,201.14
Shares Outstanding 212.89
Equity Value Per Share 193.53