Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hollysys Automation Technologies Lt... (HOLI)

$25.77

+0.07 (+0.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 40.05 | 25.77 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 570.34503.33593.47707.46777.37845.88920.421,001.531,089.791,185.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 164.42135.24123.16103.27122.18180.62196.53213.85232.70253.21
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 155.97126.07112.4391.26111.89166.86181.57197.57214.98233.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8.459.1710.731210.2913.7614.9716.2917.7219.28
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 477.65613.73713.13691.96644.83857.05932.581,014.761,104.181,201.49
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 553.04485.99580.15606.36616.37771.91839.93913.95994.491,082.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 42.9848.2147.9191.24111.6388.7296.54105.05114.31124.38
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 110.38117.46140.24173.95170.63190.93207.75226.06245.98267.66
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -10.59-8.10-18.13-26.37-40.92-26.24-28.55-31.07-33.81-36.79
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25.77
Beta 0.548
Diluted Shares Outstanding 62.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 9.73
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.877
Total Debt 35
Total Equity 1,598.63
Total Capital 1,633.62
Debt Weighting 2.14
Equity Weighting 97.86
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 570.34503.33593.47707.46777.37845.88920.421,001.531,089.791,185.82
EBITDA 164.42135.24123.16103.27122.18180.62196.53213.85232.70253.21
EBIT 155.97126.07112.4391.26111.89166.86181.57197.57214.98233.92
Tax Rate 12.85%18.57%18.37%16.51%9.73%15.20%15.20%15.20%15.20%15.20%
EBIAT 135.93102.6691.7876.20101141.49153.96167.53182.29198.36
Depreciation 8.459.1710.731210.2913.7614.9716.2917.7219.28
Accounts Receivable -67.05-94.16-26.22-10.01-155.54-68.02-74.02-80.54-87.64
Inventories --5.230.30-43.33-20.3922.91-7.82-8.51-9.26-10.07
Accounts Payable -7.0822.7733.72-3.3220.3016.8318.3119.9221.68
Capital Expenditure -10.59-8.10-18.13-26.37-40.92-26.24-28.55-31.07-33.81-36.79
UFCF 133.80172.6413.292636.6516.6881.3688.5396.33104.82
WACC
PV UFCF 15.6171.3272.6574.0175.40
SUM PV UFCF 309

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.81
Free cash flow (t + 1) 106.92
Terminal Value 2,222.80
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,598.97

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,907.97
Net Debt -576.64
Equity Value 2,484.60
Shares Outstanding 62.03
Equity Value Per Share 40.05