Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hollysys Automation Technologies Lt... (HOLI)

$16.88

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 46.55 | 16.88 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 540.77570.34503.33593.47707.46762820.74884.01952.161,025.57
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 139.35152.47107.04121.55112.55167.88180.82194.76209.78225.95
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 130.06144.0297.87110.82100.55154.89166.83179.69193.54208.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 9.298.459.1710.731212.9913.9915.0716.2317.49
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 405.11477.65613.73713.13691.96759.82818.39881.48949.441,022.63
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 507.08553.04485.99580.15606.36717.44772.74832.31896.48965.59
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 58.0742.9848.2147.9191.2474.4180.1486.3292.98100.14
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 129.48110.38117.46140.24173.95175.03188.53203.06218.72235.58
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.30-10.59-7.12-18.13-26.37-15.97-17.20-18.53-19.95-21.49
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16.88
Beta 0.653
Diluted Shares Outstanding 61.57
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.51
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.13%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.492
Total Debt 19.51
Total Equity 1,039.28
Total Capital 1,058.79
Debt Weighting 1.84
Equity Weighting 98.16
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 540.77570.34503.33593.47707.46762820.74884.01952.161,025.57
EBITDA 139.35152.47107.04121.55112.55167.88180.82194.76209.78225.95
EBIT 130.06144.0297.87110.82100.55154.89166.83179.69193.54208.46
Tax Rate 17.34%12.85%18.57%18.37%16.51%16.72%16.72%16.72%16.72%16.72%
EBIAT 107.50125.5279.7090.4683.95128.98138.93149.64161.17173.60
Depreciation 9.298.459.1710.731212.9913.9915.0716.2317.49
Accounts Receivable --45.9667.05-94.16-26.22-111.07-55.31-59.57-64.16-69.11
Inventories -15.09-5.230.30-43.3316.83-5.74-6.18-6.65-7.17
Accounts Payable --19.097.0822.7833.721.0813.4914.5315.6516.86
Capital Expenditure -2.30-10.59-7.12-18.13-26.37-15.97-17.20-18.53-19.95-21.49
UFCF 114.4973.43150.6611.9833.7532.8588.1794.97102.29110.17
WACC
PV UFCF 30.8777.8478.7779.7280.68
SUM PV UFCF 347.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) 112.38
Terminal Value 2,536.74
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,857.61

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,205.49
Net Debt -660.24
Equity Value 2,865.74
Shares Outstanding 61.57
Equity Value Per Share 46.55