Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hologic, Inc. (HOLX)

$76.6

-0.39 (-0.51%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 99.10 | 76.6 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,217.903,367.303,776.405,632.304,862.805,498.306,216.857,029.317,947.948,986.62
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 210.40346.201,499.102,863.401,772.501,581.371,788.032,021.702,285.912,584.65
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -269.90-116.901,123.102,456.501,683.301,056.901,195.021,351.191,527.771,727.43
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 480.30463.10376406.9089.20524.47593.01670.51758.14857.22
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 666.70601.807011,170.302,339.501,386.031,567.161,771.972,003.542,265.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 579.20648.701,028.90942.70617.601,033.101,168.111,320.771,493.381,688.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 384.10444.90395.10501.20623.70630.50712.89806.06911.401,030.51
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 192.20186.50178.80215.90197.70265.51300.21339.44383.80433.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -105.60-113.60-156.40-162.70-70.60-166.46-188.21-212.81-240.62-272.07
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 76.6
Beta 1.007
Diluted Shares Outstanding 253.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.02
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.271
Total Debt 2,823.40
Total Equity 19,444.53
Total Capital 22,267.93
Debt Weighting 12.68
Equity Weighting 87.32
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,217.903,367.303,776.405,632.304,862.805,498.306,216.857,029.317,947.948,986.62
EBITDA 210.40346.201,499.102,863.401,772.501,581.371,788.032,021.702,285.912,584.65
EBIT -269.90-116.901,123.102,456.501,683.301,056.901,195.021,351.191,527.771,727.43
Tax Rate 73.41%20.99%-11.31%20.74%18.02%24.37%24.37%24.37%24.37%24.37%
EBIAT -71.76-92.361,250.111,947.121,379.96799.33903.791,021.901,155.451,306.45
Depreciation 480.30463.10376406.9089.20524.47593.01670.51758.14857.22
Accounts Receivable --69.50-380.2086.20325.10-415.50-135.01-152.66-172.61-195.16
Inventories --60.8049.80-106.10-122.50-6.80-82.40-93.17-105.34-119.11
Accounts Payable --5.70-7.7037.10-18.2067.8134.7039.2344.3650.16
Capital Expenditure -105.60-113.60-156.40-162.70-70.60-166.46-188.21-212.81-240.62-272.07
UFCF 302.94121.141,131.612,208.521,582.96802.851,125.881,273.011,439.381,627.48
WACC
PV UFCF 746.35972.991,022.731,0751,129.95
SUM PV UFCF 4,947.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.57
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,660.03
Terminal Value 29,803.11
Present Value of Terminal Value 20,692.16

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 25,639.18
Net Debt 483.90
Equity Value 25,155.28
Shares Outstanding 253.84
Equity Value Per Share 99.10