Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) (HOMB)
$21.71
+0.11 (+0.51%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 655.34 | 654.13 | 684.56 | 699.78 | 918.88 | 1,006.18 | 1,101.77 | 1,206.44 | 1,321.06 | 1,446.56 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 539.08 | 559.82 | 391.19 | 488.46 | 545.52 | 712.69 | 780.40 | 854.54 | 935.72 | 1,024.62 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 519.87 | 540.39 | 371.11 | 468.97 | 513.67 | 682.33 | 747.16 | 818.14 | 895.86 | 980.97 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 19.21 | 19.43 | 20.08 | 19.48 | 31.86 | 30.36 | 33.24 | 36.40 | 39.86 | 43.64 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2,443.80 | 2,574.44 | 3,737.57 | 6,770.12 | 4,766.38 | 5,631.85 | 6,166.89 | 6,752.76 | 7,394.29 | 8,096.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 48.94 | 45.09 | 60.53 | 46.74 | 103.20 | 82.73 | 90.59 | 99.20 | 108.62 | 118.94 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 67.91 | 102.41 | 128 | 113.87 | 196.88 | 165.85 | 181.60 | 198.86 | 217.75 | 238.43 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7.95 | -14.90 | -11.55 | -10.28 | -9.02 | -15.35 | -16.81 | -18.41 | -20.15 | -22.07 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 21.71 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.179 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 195.02 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.64 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 8.45% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.058 |
| Total Debt | 1,090.42 |
| Total Equity | 4,233.86 |
| Total Capital | 5,324.28 |
| Debt Weighting | 20.48 |
| Equity Weighting | 79.52 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 655.34 | 654.13 | 684.56 | 699.78 | 918.88 | 1,006.18 | 1,101.77 | 1,206.44 | 1,321.06 | 1,446.56 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 539.08 | 559.82 | 391.19 | 488.46 | 545.52 | 712.69 | 780.40 | 854.54 | 935.72 | 1,024.62 |
| EBIT | 519.87 | 540.39 | 371.11 | 468.97 | 513.67 | 682.33 | 747.16 | 818.14 | 895.86 | 980.97 |
| Tax Rate | 24.05% | 24.92% | 22.78% | 23.45% | 22.64% | 23.57% | 23.57% | 23.57% | 23.57% | 23.57% |
| EBIAT | 394.85 | 405.75 | 286.58 | 358.98 | 397.40 | 521.53 | 571.08 | 625.33 | 684.74 | 749.79 |
| Depreciation | 19.21 | 19.43 | 20.08 | 19.48 | 31.86 | 30.36 | 33.24 | 36.40 | 39.86 | 43.64 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 3.86 | -15.44 | 13.79 | -56.46 | 20.47 | -7.86 | -8.61 | -9.42 | -10.32 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 34.50 | 25.59 | -14.13 | 83.01 | -31.03 | 15.76 | 17.25 | 18.89 | 20.69 |
| Capital Expenditure | -7.95 | -14.90 | -11.55 | -10.28 | -9.02 | -15.35 | -16.81 | -18.41 | -20.15 | -22.07 |
| UFCF | 406.11 | 448.63 | 305.26 | 367.84 | 446.78 | 525.97 | 595.40 | 651.97 | 713.91 | 781.73 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 482.85 | 501.78 | 504.41 | 507.05 | 509.71 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 2,505.81 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.93 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 797.37 |
| Terminal Value | 11,506.01 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 7,502.18 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 10,007.99 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 365.63 |
| Equity Value | 9,642.36 |
| Shares Outstanding | 195.02 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 49.44 |