Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

At Home Group Inc. (HOME)

$36.99

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -91.17 | 36.99 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 765.63950.531,165.901,365.031,737.062,132.862,618.843,215.543,948.224,847.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 106.89136.14132.56-90.04-6.95139.30171.04210.02257.87316.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 69.9687.3676.04-159.46-78.3936.9245.3355.6668.3583.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 36.9248.7856.5369.4271.44102.38125.71154.35189.52232.71
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 7.098.5310.9512.08125.8446.4657.0570.0586.01105.61
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----22.2227.2933.5041.1450.5162.02
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 243.79269.84382.02417.76364.47616.75757.28929.831,141.701,401.84
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 58.4379.63115.82119.19130.33179.91220.91271.24333.05408.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -124.27-232.70-357.52-246.76-72.29-399.34-490.33-602.05-739.23-907.66
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 36.99
Beta 2.520
Diluted Shares Outstanding 64.43
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -40.09
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.17%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.661
Total Debt 397.50
Total Equity 2,383.13
Total Capital 2,780.63
Debt Weighting 14.30
Equity Weighting 85.70
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 765.63950.531,165.901,365.031,737.062,132.862,618.843,215.543,948.224,847.83
EBITDA 106.89136.14132.56-90.04-6.95139.30171.04210.02257.87316.63
EBIT 69.9687.3676.04-159.46-78.3936.9245.3355.6668.3583.92
Tax Rate 36.74%51.55%-0.03%-12.12%-40.09%7.21%7.21%7.21%7.21%7.21%
EBIAT 44.2642.3376.06-178.78-109.8134.2642.0651.6563.4277.87
Depreciation 36.9248.7856.5369.4271.44102.38125.71154.35189.52232.71
Accounts Receivable ------5.06-6.22-7.63-9.37-11.51
Inventories --26.05-112.18-35.7453.29-252.28-140.53-172.55-211.87-260.14
Accounts Payable -21.2036.193.3711.1449.5940.9950.3361.8075.89
Capital Expenditure -124.27-232.70-357.52-246.76-72.29-399.34-490.33-602.05-739.23-907.66
UFCF -43.09-146.44-300.92-388.49-46.23-470.46-428.31-525.90-645.72-792.85
WACC
PV UFCF -414.17-331.95-358.82-387.87-419.27
SUM PV UFCF -1,912.08

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.59
Free cash flow (t + 1) -808.71
Terminal Value -6,977.66
Present Value of Terminal Value -3,689.85

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -5,601.93
Net Debt 271.65
Equity Value -5,873.59
Shares Outstanding 64.43
Equity Value Per Share -91.17