Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
At Home Group Inc. (HOME)
$36.99
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 765.63 | 950.53 | 1,165.90 | 1,365.03 | 1,737.06 | 2,132.86 | 2,618.84 | 3,215.54 | 3,948.22 | 4,847.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 106.89 | 136.14 | 132.56 | -90.04 | -6.95 | 139.30 | 171.04 | 210.02 | 257.87 | 316.63 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 69.96 | 87.36 | 76.04 | -159.46 | -78.39 | 36.92 | 45.33 | 55.66 | 68.35 | 83.92 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 36.92 | 48.78 | 56.53 | 69.42 | 71.44 | 102.38 | 125.71 | 154.35 | 189.52 | 232.71 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 7.09 | 8.53 | 10.95 | 12.08 | 125.84 | 46.46 | 57.05 | 70.05 | 86.01 | 105.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | 22.22 | 27.29 | 33.50 | 41.14 | 50.51 | 62.02 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 243.79 | 269.84 | 382.02 | 417.76 | 364.47 | 616.75 | 757.28 | 929.83 | 1,141.70 | 1,401.84 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 58.43 | 79.63 | 115.82 | 119.19 | 130.33 | 179.91 | 220.91 | 271.24 | 333.05 | 408.93 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -124.27 | -232.70 | -357.52 | -246.76 | -72.29 | -399.34 | -490.33 | -602.05 | -739.23 | -907.66 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 36.99 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.520 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 64.43 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -40.09 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.17% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 16.376 |
| Total Debt | 397.50 |
| Total Equity | 2,383.13 |
| Total Capital | 2,780.63 |
| Debt Weighting | 14.30 |
| Equity Weighting | 85.70 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 765.63 | 950.53 | 1,165.90 | 1,365.03 | 1,737.06 | 2,132.86 | 2,618.84 | 3,215.54 | 3,948.22 | 4,847.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 106.89 | 136.14 | 132.56 | -90.04 | -6.95 | 139.30 | 171.04 | 210.02 | 257.87 | 316.63 |
| EBIT | 69.96 | 87.36 | 76.04 | -159.46 | -78.39 | 36.92 | 45.33 | 55.66 | 68.35 | 83.92 |
| Tax Rate | 36.74% | 51.55% | -0.03% | -12.12% | -40.09% | 7.21% | 7.21% | 7.21% | 7.21% | 7.21% |
| EBIAT | 44.26 | 42.33 | 76.06 | -178.78 | -109.81 | 34.26 | 42.06 | 51.65 | 63.42 | 77.87 |
| Depreciation | 36.92 | 48.78 | 56.53 | 69.42 | 71.44 | 102.38 | 125.71 | 154.35 | 189.52 | 232.71 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | -5.06 | -6.22 | -7.63 | -9.37 | -11.51 |
| Inventories | - | -26.05 | -112.18 | -35.74 | 53.29 | -252.28 | -140.53 | -172.55 | -211.87 | -260.14 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 21.20 | 36.19 | 3.37 | 11.14 | 49.59 | 40.99 | 50.33 | 61.80 | 75.89 |
| Capital Expenditure | -124.27 | -232.70 | -357.52 | -246.76 | -72.29 | -399.34 | -490.33 | -602.05 | -739.23 | -907.66 |
| UFCF | -43.09 | -146.44 | -300.92 | -388.49 | -46.23 | -470.46 | -428.31 | -525.90 | -645.72 | -792.85 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -408.88 | -323.52 | -345.24 | -368.42 | -393.16 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,839.23 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 15.06 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -808.71 |
| Terminal Value | -6,192.27 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -3,070.63 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -4,909.87 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 271.65 |
| Equity Value | -5,181.52 |
| Shares Outstanding | 64.43 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -80.43 |