Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP)

$51.69

+0.21 (+0.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -104.35 | 51.69 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,804.742,487.272,798.491,773.931,218.571,164.991,113.771,064.801,017.98973.23
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 420.34613.57535.62-128.2413.81142.14135.89129.91124.20118.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -165.2029.77-27.18-610.13-405.92-178.55-170.70-163.20-156.02-149.16
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 585.54583.80562.80481.88419.73320.69306.59293.11280.22267.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 565.87325.82400.90577.221,116.23426.20407.46389.55372.42356.05
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 477.07565.20497.75194.99233.41226.22216.27206.77197.67188.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 137.20158.13149.65104.1884.0674.7471.4668.3165.3162.44
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 135.63132.66123.1536.477258.7556.1653.6951.3349.08
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -397.57-466.58-458.40-140.80-82.15-167.40-160.04-153-146.28-139.85
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 51.69
Beta 1.744
Diluted Shares Outstanding 107.82
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.07
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.976
Total Debt 1,075.97
Total Equity 5,573.11
Total Capital 6,649.08
Debt Weighting 16.18
Equity Weighting 83.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,804.742,487.272,798.491,773.931,218.571,164.991,113.771,064.801,017.98973.23
EBITDA 420.34613.57535.62-128.2413.81142.14135.89129.91124.20118.74
EBIT -165.2029.77-27.18-610.13-405.92-178.55-170.70-163.20-156.02-149.16
Tax Rate 30.55%-2,946.98%34.29%22.31%26.07%-566.75%-566.75%-566.75%-566.75%-566.75%
EBIAT -114.74907.02-17.86-474.01-300.08-1,190.51-1,138.17-1,088.13-1,040.28-994.55
Depreciation 585.54583.80562.80481.88419.73320.69306.59293.11280.22267.90
Accounts Receivable --88.1367.45302.76-38.427.199.959.519.098.69
Inventories --20.938.4845.4720.129.313.293.1432.87
Accounts Payable --2.96-9.52-86.6835.53-13.25-2.58-2.47-2.36-2.26
Capital Expenditure -397.57-466.58-458.40-140.79-82.15-167.40-160.04-153-146.28-139.85
UFCF 73.24912.22152.95128.6454.73-1,033.97-980.97-937.84-896.60-857.18
WACC
PV UFCF -944.52-818.59-714.90-624.34-545.25
SUM PV UFCF -3,647.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.47
Free cash flow (t + 1) -874.33
Terminal Value -11,704.52
Present Value of Terminal Value -7,445.23

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -11,092.83
Net Debt 158.44
Equity Value -11,251.26
Shares Outstanding 107.82
Equity Value Per Share -104.35