Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP)

$51.69

+0.21 (+0.41%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -104.35 | 51.69 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,804.74	2,487.27	2,798.49	1,773.93	1,218.57	1,164.99	1,113.77	1,064.80	1,017.98	973.23
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	420.34	613.57	535.62	-128.24	13.81	142.14	135.89	129.91	124.20	118.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-165.20	29.77	-27.18	-610.13	-405.92	-178.55	-170.70	-163.20	-156.02	-149.16
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	585.54	583.80	562.80	481.88	419.73	320.69	306.59	293.11	280.22	267.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	565.87	325.82	400.90	577.22	1,116.23	426.20	407.46	389.55	372.42	356.05
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	477.07	565.20	497.75	194.99	233.41	226.22	216.27	206.77	197.67	188.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	137.20	158.13	149.65	104.18	84.06	74.74	71.46	68.31	65.31	62.44
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	135.63	132.66	123.15	36.47	72	58.75	56.16	53.69	51.33	49.08
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-397.57	-466.58	-458.40	-140.80	-82.15	-167.40	-160.04	-153	-146.28	-139.85
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 51.69
Beta	1.744
Diluted Shares Outstanding	107.82
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	26.07
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.976
Total Debt	1,075.97
Total Equity	5,573.11
Total Capital	6,649.08
Debt Weighting	16.18
Equity Weighting	83.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,804.74	2,487.27	2,798.49	1,773.93	1,218.57	1,164.99	1,113.77	1,064.80	1,017.98	973.23
EBITDA	420.34	613.57	535.62	-128.24	13.81	142.14	135.89	129.91	124.20	118.74
EBIT	-165.20	29.77	-27.18	-610.13	-405.92	-178.55	-170.70	-163.20	-156.02	-149.16
Tax Rate	30.55%	-2,946.98%	34.29%	22.31%	26.07%	-566.75%	-566.75%	-566.75%	-566.75%	-566.75%
EBIAT	-114.74	907.02	-17.86	-474.01	-300.08	-1,190.51	-1,138.17	-1,088.13	-1,040.28	-994.55
Depreciation	585.54	583.80	562.80	481.88	419.73	320.69	306.59	293.11	280.22	267.90
Accounts Receivable	-	-88.13	67.45	302.76	-38.42	7.19	9.95	9.51	9.09	8.69
Inventories	-	-20.93	8.48	45.47	20.12	9.31	3.29	3.14	3	2.87
Accounts Payable	-	-2.96	-9.52	-86.68	35.53	-13.25	-2.58	-2.47	-2.36	-2.26
Capital Expenditure	-397.57	-466.58	-458.40	-140.79	-82.15	-167.40	-160.04	-153	-146.28	-139.85
UFCF	73.24	912.22	152.95	128.64	54.73	-1,033.97	-980.97	-937.84	-896.60	-857.18
WACC
PV UFCF						-944.52	-818.59	-714.90	-624.34	-545.25
SUM PV UFCF										-3,647.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.47
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-874.33
Terminal Value	-11,704.52
Present Value of Terminal Value	-7,445.23

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-11,092.83
Net Debt	158.44
Equity Value	-11,251.26
Shares Outstanding	107.82
Equity Value Per Share	-104.35