Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY)
$57.14
-1.12 (-1.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 287.24 | 531.99 | 733.57 | 756.56 | 861.75 | 1,163.65 | 1,571.32 | 2,121.81 | 2,865.17 | 3,868.94 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 94 | 123.28 | 154.93 | 107.02 | 171.53 | 258.49 | 349.05 | 471.33 | 636.46 | 859.44 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 75.82 | 67.93 | 39.02 | -30.17 | 10.33 | 97.03 | 131.03 | 176.93 | 238.92 | 322.62 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 18.19 | 55.35 | 115.90 | 137.19 | 161.20 | 161.46 | 218.02 | 294.40 | 397.54 | 536.82 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 361.47 | 191.73 | 328.80 | 225.41 | 254.27 | 619.07 | 835.96 | 1,128.83 | 1,524.30 | 2,058.31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 25.67 | 70.86 | 72.77 | 87.43 | 96.84 | 127.93 | 172.75 | 233.27 | 314.99 | 425.34 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3.52 | 3.98 | 1.61 | 27.54 | 13.90 | 17.33 | 23.40 | 31.60 | 42.67 | 57.62 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -15.04 | -42.07 | -96.96 | -137.08 | -48.54 | -116.63 | -157.50 | -212.67 | -287.18 | -387.79 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 57.14 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.797 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 84.44 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -31.38 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.87% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.260 |
| Total Debt | 994.49 |
| Total Equity | 4,825.02 |
| Total Capital | 5,819.50 |
| Debt Weighting | 17.09 |
| Equity Weighting | 82.91 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 287.24 | 531.99 | 733.57 | 756.56 | 861.75 | 1,163.65 | 1,571.32 | 2,121.81 | 2,865.17 | 3,868.94 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 94 | 123.28 | 154.93 | 107.02 | 171.53 | 258.49 | 349.05 | 471.33 | 636.46 | 859.44 |
| EBIT | 75.82 | 67.93 | 39.02 | -30.17 | 10.33 | 97.03 | 131.03 | 176.93 | 238.92 | 322.62 |
| Tax Rate | 2.53% | 8.09% | -113.38% | 33.64% | -31.38% | -20.10% | -20.10% | -20.10% | -20.10% | -20.10% |
| EBIAT | 73.90 | 62.43 | 83.26 | -20.02 | 13.57 | 116.54 | 157.36 | 212.49 | 286.94 | 387.46 |
| Depreciation | 18.19 | 55.35 | 115.90 | 137.19 | 161.20 | 161.46 | 218.02 | 294.40 | 397.54 | 536.82 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -45.19 | -1.90 | -14.66 | -9.41 | -31.09 | -44.82 | -60.52 | -81.72 | -110.35 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.46 | -2.37 | 25.93 | -13.64 | 3.43 | 6.07 | 8.20 | 11.07 | 14.95 |
| Capital Expenditure | -15.04 | -42.07 | -96.96 | -137.08 | -48.54 | -116.63 | -157.50 | -212.67 | -287.18 | -387.79 |
| UFCF | 77.04 | 30.98 | 97.93 | -8.65 | 103.18 | 133.70 | 179.14 | 241.90 | 326.65 | 441.09 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 125.13 | 156.91 | 198.30 | 250.60 | 316.70 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,047.64 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.85 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 449.91 |
| Terminal Value | 9,276.47 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 6,660.55 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 7,708.19 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 740.22 |
| Equity Value | 6,967.97 |
| Shares Outstanding | 84.44 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 82.52 |