Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI)
$123.2
+2.24 (+1.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,754.50 | 1,976.70 | 1,999 | 1,781.30 | 2,073 | 2,172.91 | 2,277.63 | 2,387.40 | 2,502.46 | 2,623.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 506 | 650.60 | 707.20 | 653.10 | 676 | 723.17 | 758.02 | 794.55 | 832.85 | 872.98 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 75.60 | 205.80 | 237.10 | 186.70 | 244 | 212.22 | 222.45 | 233.17 | 244.40 | 256.18 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 430.40 | 444.80 | 470.10 | 466.40 | 432 | 510.95 | 535.57 | 561.39 | 588.44 | 616.80 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 41.50 | 27.80 | 33 | 33 | 35 | 38.95 | 40.83 | 42.80 | 44.86 | 47.02 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 386.30 | 332.40 | 306.70 | 301.20 | 388 | 390.26 | 409.07 | 428.79 | 449.45 | 471.11 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 23.70 | 17.90 | 22.55 | 20.10 | 23.39 | 24.51 | 25.70 | 26.93 | 28.23 | 29.59 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 152 | 147 | 126.50 | 125.80 | 280 | 186.86 | 195.86 | 205.30 | 215.20 | 225.57 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -576 | -849 | -695.30 | -385.50 | -48 | -584.60 | -612.77 | -642.30 | -673.26 | -705.71 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 123.2 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.643 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 30.50 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.76 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.83% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 15.277 |
| Total Debt | 2,341 |
| Total Equity | 3,757.60 |
| Total Capital | 6,098.60 |
| Debt Weighting | 38.39 |
| Equity Weighting | 61.61 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,754.50 | 1,976.70 | 1,999 | 1,781.30 | 2,073 | 2,172.91 | 2,277.63 | 2,387.40 | 2,502.46 | 2,623.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 506 | 650.60 | 707.20 | 653.10 | 676 | 723.17 | 758.02 | 794.55 | 832.85 | 872.98 |
| EBIT | 75.60 | 205.80 | 237.10 | 186.70 | 244 | 212.22 | 222.45 | 233.17 | 244.40 | 256.18 |
| Tax Rate | 348.91% | -0.44% | 25.31% | 21.68% | 22.76% | 83.65% | 83.65% | 83.65% | 83.65% | 83.65% |
| EBIAT | -188.18 | 206.70 | 177.08 | 146.23 | 188.47 | 34.71 | 36.38 | 38.13 | 39.97 | 41.90 |
| Depreciation | 430.40 | 444.80 | 470.10 | 466.40 | 432 | 510.95 | 535.57 | 561.39 | 588.44 | 616.80 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 53.90 | 25.70 | 5.50 | -86.80 | -2.26 | -18.81 | -19.72 | -20.67 | -21.66 |
| Inventories | - | 5.80 | -4.65 | 2.46 | -3.29 | -1.13 | -1.18 | -1.24 | -1.30 | -1.36 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -5 | -20.50 | -0.70 | 154.20 | -93.14 | 9.01 | 9.44 | 9.89 | 10.37 |
| Capital Expenditure | -576 | -849 | -695.30 | -385.50 | -48 | -584.60 | -612.77 | -642.30 | -673.26 | -705.71 |
| UFCF | -333.78 | -142.80 | -47.57 | 234.38 | 636.58 | -135.47 | -51.80 | -54.30 | -56.92 | -59.66 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -122.60 | -42.43 | -40.25 | -38.18 | -36.21 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -279.66 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.50 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -60.85 |
| Terminal Value | -715.92 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -434.57 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -714.23 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,306 |
| Equity Value | -3,020.23 |
| Shares Outstanding | 30.50 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -99.02 |