Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI)

$123.2

+2.24 (+1.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -99.02 | 123.2 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,754.501,976.701,9991,781.302,0732,172.912,277.632,387.402,502.462,623.07
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 506650.60707.20653.10676723.17758.02794.55832.85872.98
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 75.60205.80237.10186.70244212.22222.45233.17244.40256.18
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 430.40444.80470.10466.40432510.95535.57561.39588.44616.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 41.5027.8033333538.9540.8342.8044.8647.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 386.30332.40306.70301.20388390.26409.07428.79449.45471.11
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 23.7017.9022.5520.1023.3924.5125.7026.9328.2329.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 152147126.50125.80280186.86195.86205.30215.20225.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -576-849-695.30-385.50-48-584.60-612.77-642.30-673.26-705.71
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 123.2
Beta 2.643
Diluted Shares Outstanding 30.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.76
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.83%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.277
Total Debt 2,341
Total Equity 3,757.60
Total Capital 6,098.60
Debt Weighting 38.39
Equity Weighting 61.61
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,754.501,976.701,9991,781.302,0732,172.912,277.632,387.402,502.462,623.07
EBITDA 506650.60707.20653.10676723.17758.02794.55832.85872.98
EBIT 75.60205.80237.10186.70244212.22222.45233.17244.40256.18
Tax Rate 348.91%-0.44%25.31%21.68%22.76%83.65%83.65%83.65%83.65%83.65%
EBIAT -188.18206.70177.08146.23188.4734.7136.3838.1339.9741.90
Depreciation 430.40444.80470.10466.40432510.95535.57561.39588.44616.80
Accounts Receivable -53.9025.705.50-86.80-2.26-18.81-19.72-20.67-21.66
Inventories -5.80-4.652.46-3.29-1.13-1.18-1.24-1.30-1.36
Accounts Payable --5-20.50-0.70154.20-93.149.019.449.8910.37
Capital Expenditure -576-849-695.30-385.50-48-584.60-612.77-642.30-673.26-705.71
UFCF -333.78-142.80-47.57234.38636.58-135.47-51.80-54.30-56.92-59.66
WACC
PV UFCF -122.60-42.43-40.25-38.18-36.21
SUM PV UFCF -279.66

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.50
Free cash flow (t + 1) -60.85
Terminal Value -715.92
Present Value of Terminal Value -434.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -714.23
Net Debt 2,306
Equity Value -3,020.23
Shares Outstanding 30.50
Equity Value Per Share -99.02