Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI)
$122.66
+1.94 (+1.61%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,976.70 | 1,999 | 1,781.30 | 2,073.10 | 2,738.80 | 3,003.99 | 3,294.85 | 3,613.88 | 3,963.79 | 4,347.59 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 650.70 | 720 | 669.20 | 868.60 | 1,189.70 | 1,152.58 | 1,264.18 | 1,386.59 | 1,520.84 | 1,668.10 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 205.90 | 249.90 | 202.80 | 379.90 | 558.90 | 438.79 | 481.28 | 527.88 | 578.99 | 635.05 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 444.80 | 470.10 | 466.40 | 488.70 | 630.80 | 713.79 | 782.91 | 858.71 | 941.86 | 1,033.05 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 27.80 | 33 | 33 | 35.10 | 53.50 | 51.41 | 56.38 | 61.84 | 67.83 | 74.40 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 332.40 | 306.70 | 301.20 | 388.10 | 522.50 | 521.89 | 572.42 | 627.85 | 688.64 | 755.32 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 17.90 | 18.10 | 16.13 | 18.77 | 24.80 | 27.20 | 29.84 | 32.73 | 35.89 | 39.37 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 147 | 126.50 | 125.80 | 280.60 | 318.30 | 276.27 | 303.02 | 332.36 | 364.54 | 399.84 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -849 | -695.30 | -385.50 | -641.80 | -1,272.20 | -1,062.11 | -1,164.95 | -1,277.75 | -1,401.47 | -1,537.17 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 122.66 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.416 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 30.20 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 23.88 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.13% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 15.514 |
Total Debt | 3,615.40 |
Total Equity | 3,704.33 |
Total Capital | 7,319.73 |
Debt Weighting | 49.39 |
Equity Weighting | 50.61 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,976.70 | 1,999 | 1,781.30 | 2,073.10 | 2,738.80 | 3,003.99 | 3,294.85 | 3,613.88 | 3,963.79 | 4,347.59 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 650.70 | 720 | 669.20 | 868.60 | 1,189.70 | 1,152.58 | 1,264.18 | 1,386.59 | 1,520.84 | 1,668.10 |
EBIT | 205.90 | 249.90 | 202.80 | 379.90 | 558.90 | 438.79 | 481.28 | 527.88 | 578.99 | 635.05 |
Tax Rate | -0.44% | 25.31% | 21.68% | 22.83% | 23.88% | 18.65% | 18.65% | 18.65% | 18.65% | 18.65% |
EBIAT | 206.80 | 186.64 | 158.83 | 293.17 | 425.43 | 356.94 | 391.50 | 429.41 | 470.98 | 516.59 |
Depreciation | 444.80 | 470.10 | 466.40 | 488.70 | 630.80 | 713.79 | 782.91 | 858.71 | 941.86 | 1,033.05 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 25.70 | 5.50 | -86.90 | -134.40 | 0.61 | -50.53 | -55.43 | -60.79 | -66.68 |
Inventories | - | -0.20 | 1.97 | -2.64 | -6.03 | -2.40 | -2.63 | -2.89 | -3.17 | -3.48 |
Accounts Payable | - | -20.50 | -0.70 | 154.80 | 37.70 | -42.03 | 26.75 | 29.34 | 32.18 | 35.30 |
Capital Expenditure | -849 | -695.30 | -385.50 | -641.80 | -1,272.20 | -1,062.11 | -1,164.95 | -1,277.75 | -1,401.47 | -1,537.17 |
UFCF | -197.40 | -33.56 | 246.51 | 205.32 | -318.70 | -35.20 | -16.96 | -18.61 | -20.41 | -22.38 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -32.18 | -14.17 | -14.21 | -14.25 | -14.28 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -89.09 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.40 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -22.83 |
Terminal Value | -308.52 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -196.88 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -285.97 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 3,561.90 |
Equity Value | -3,847.87 |
Shares Outstanding | 30.20 |
Equity Value Per Share | -127.41 |