Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI)

$151.77

+2.09 (+1.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -185.33 | 151.77 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,9991,781.302,073.102,738.803,2823,753.264,292.194,908.505,613.316,419.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 720669.20868.601,189.705831,326.301,516.751,734.541,983.602,268.42
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 249.90202.80379.90558.90-207.18422.66483.35552.75632.12722.88
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 470.10466.40488.70630.80790.18903.651,033.401,181.791,351.481,545.53
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 333335.1053.507169.9179.9591.43104.56119.57
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 306.70301.20388.10522.50563654.60748.59856.08979.011,119.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 126.50125.80280.60318.30212337.85386.36441.83505.28577.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -695.30-385.50-641.80-1,272.20-1,098.10-1,255.78-1,436.09-1,642.30-1,878.12-2,147.80
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 151.77
Beta 2.300
Diluted Shares Outstanding 28.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.37
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.03%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.141
Total Debt 4,319
Total Equity 4,355.80
Total Capital 8,674.80
Debt Weighting 49.79
Equity Weighting 50.21
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,9991,781.302,073.102,738.803,2823,753.264,292.194,908.505,613.316,419.32
EBITDA 720669.20868.601,189.705831,326.301,516.751,734.541,983.602,268.42
EBIT 249.90202.80379.90558.90-207.18422.66483.35552.75632.12722.88
Tax Rate 25.31%21.68%22.83%23.88%22.37%23.22%23.22%23.22%23.22%23.22%
EBIAT 186.64158.83293.17425.43-160.83324.54371.14424.43485.37555.06
Depreciation 470.10466.40488.70630.80790.18903.651,033.401,181.791,351.481,545.53
Accounts Receivable -5.50-86.90-134.40-40.50-91.60-93.99-107.49-122.92-140.58
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --0.70154.8037.70-106.30125.8548.5155.4863.4472.55
Capital Expenditure -695.30-385.50-641.80-1,272.20-1,098.10-1,255.78-1,436.09-1,642.30-1,878.12-2,147.80
UFCF -38.56244.53207.97-312.67-615.556.65-77.04-88.10-100.75-115.22
WACC
PV UFCF 6.07-64.12-66.90-69.80-72.82
SUM PV UFCF -267.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) -115.80
Terminal Value -1,271.09
Present Value of Terminal Value -803.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,070.97
Net Debt 4,248
Equity Value -5,318.97
Shares Outstanding 28.70
Equity Value Per Share -185.33