Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI)

$122.66

+1.94 (+1.61%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -127.41 | 122.66 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,976.701,9991,781.302,073.102,738.803,003.993,294.853,613.883,963.794,347.59
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 650.70720669.20868.601,189.701,152.581,264.181,386.591,520.841,668.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 205.90249.90202.80379.90558.90438.79481.28527.88578.99635.05
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 444.80470.10466.40488.70630.80713.79782.91858.71941.861,033.05
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 27.80333335.1053.5051.4156.3861.8467.8374.40
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 332.40306.70301.20388.10522.50521.89572.42627.85688.64755.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 17.9018.1016.1318.7724.8027.2029.8432.7335.8939.37
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 147126.50125.80280.60318.30276.27303.02332.36364.54399.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -849-695.30-385.50-641.80-1,272.20-1,062.11-1,164.95-1,277.75-1,401.47-1,537.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 122.66
Beta 2.416
Diluted Shares Outstanding 30.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.88
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.13%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.514
Total Debt 3,615.40
Total Equity 3,704.33
Total Capital 7,319.73
Debt Weighting 49.39
Equity Weighting 50.61
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,976.701,9991,781.302,073.102,738.803,003.993,294.853,613.883,963.794,347.59
EBITDA 650.70720669.20868.601,189.701,152.581,264.181,386.591,520.841,668.10
EBIT 205.90249.90202.80379.90558.90438.79481.28527.88578.99635.05
Tax Rate -0.44%25.31%21.68%22.83%23.88%18.65%18.65%18.65%18.65%18.65%
EBIAT 206.80186.64158.83293.17425.43356.94391.50429.41470.98516.59
Depreciation 444.80470.10466.40488.70630.80713.79782.91858.71941.861,033.05
Accounts Receivable -25.705.50-86.90-134.400.61-50.53-55.43-60.79-66.68
Inventories --0.201.97-2.64-6.03-2.40-2.63-2.89-3.17-3.48
Accounts Payable --20.50-0.70154.8037.70-42.0326.7529.3432.1835.30
Capital Expenditure -849-695.30-385.50-641.80-1,272.20-1,062.11-1,164.95-1,277.75-1,401.47-1,537.17
UFCF -197.40-33.56246.51205.32-318.70-35.20-16.96-18.61-20.41-22.38
WACC
PV UFCF -32.18-14.17-14.21-14.25-14.28
SUM PV UFCF -89.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) -22.83
Terminal Value -308.52
Present Value of Terminal Value -196.88

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -285.97
Net Debt 3,561.90
Equity Value -3,847.87
Shares Outstanding 30.20
Equity Value Per Share -127.41