Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Héroux-Devtek Inc. (HRX.TO)

$13.93

-0.06 (-0.43%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 7.51 | 13.93 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 386.56483.88613570.68536.09588.21645.41708.16777.02852.57
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 52.1770.3015.2280.0384.7070.9777.8885.4593.76102.87
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 25.5937.65-28.4336.9448.7229.7932.6935.8739.3643.18
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 26.5832.6543.6443.0935.9841.1845.1849.5854.4059.69
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 93.2135.1345.8495.4786.6984.4192.62101.62111.50122.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 77.08138.30127.44111.69117.84130.42143.10157.02172.29189.04
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 134.33184.04241.12216.44200.34220.48241.92265.44291.25319.57
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 41.6476.7581.7757.5171.6474.6081.8689.8198.55108.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -9.93-12.86-22.24-21.90-20.15-19.35-21.24-23.30-25.57-28.05
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.93
Beta 1.778
Diluted Shares Outstanding 36.02
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.67
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.202
Total Debt 236.53
Total Equity 501.80
Total Capital 738.33
Debt Weighting 32.04
Equity Weighting 67.96
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 386.56483.88613570.68536.09588.21645.41708.16777.02852.57
EBITDA 52.1770.3015.2280.0384.7070.9777.8885.4593.76102.87
EBIT 25.5937.65-28.4336.9448.7229.7932.6935.8739.3643.18
Tax Rate 34.39%13.09%-32.17%23.41%19.67%11.68%11.68%11.68%11.68%11.68%
EBIAT 16.7932.73-37.5728.2939.1426.3228.8731.6834.7638.14
Depreciation 26.5832.6543.6443.0935.9841.1845.1849.5854.4059.69
Accounts Receivable --61.2210.8615.76-6.15-12.59-12.68-13.91-15.27-16.75
Inventories --49.71-57.0824.6816.10-20.14-21.44-23.52-25.81-28.32
Accounts Payable -35.105.02-24.2614.132.967.257.968.739.58
Capital Expenditure -9.93-12.86-22.24-21.90-20.15-19.35-21.24-23.30-25.57-28.05
UFCF 33.44-23.31-57.3865.6579.0518.3825.9628.4831.2534.29
WACC
PV UFCF 16.8421.7921.9022.0222.13
SUM PV UFCF 104.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.15
Free cash flow (t + 1) 34.97
Terminal Value 489.16
Present Value of Terminal Value 315.74

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 420.42
Net Debt 149.83
Equity Value 270.59
Shares Outstanding 36.02
Equity Value Per Share 7.51