Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Horizon Technology Finance Corporat... (HRZN)
$11.55
+0.17 (+1.49%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 14.90 | 21.30 | 10.33 | 33.27 | 26.64 | 39.53 | 58.66 | 87.04 | 129.14 | 191.63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 19.08 | 19.74 | 6.59 | 28.18 | 41.07 | 41.38 | 61.39 | 91.09 | 135.17 | 200.56 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 18.52 | 19.01 | 5.57 | 27.09 | 39.46 | 39.30 | 58.31 | 86.52 | 128.38 | 190.49 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.55 | 0.73 | 1.02 | 1.09 | 1.60 | 2.08 | 3.08 | 4.57 | 6.79 | 10.07 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 12.59 | 6.47 | 19.50 | 38.05 | 20.61 | 39.17 | 58.11 | 86.23 | 127.95 | 189.85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 3.97 | 5.53 | 4.95 | 6.15 | 13.57 | 13.43 | 19.93 | 29.57 | 43.88 | 65.11 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3.46 | 4.67 | 5.79 | 6.37 | 9.16 | 12.23 | 18.14 | 26.92 | 39.95 | 59.27 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 11.55 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.159 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 24.73 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 3.27 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.28% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.092 |
| Total Debt | 434.08 |
| Total Equity | 285.59 |
| Total Capital | 719.66 |
| Debt Weighting | 60.32 |
| Equity Weighting | 39.68 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 14.90 | 21.30 | 10.33 | 33.27 | 26.64 | 39.53 | 58.66 | 87.04 | 129.14 | 191.63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 19.08 | 19.74 | 6.59 | 28.18 | 41.07 | 41.38 | 61.39 | 91.09 | 135.17 | 200.56 |
| EBIT | 18.52 | 19.01 | 5.57 | 27.09 | 39.46 | 39.30 | 58.31 | 86.52 | 128.38 | 190.49 |
| Tax Rate | 0.26% | 1.21% | 3.37% | 1.42% | 3.27% | 1.91% | 1.91% | 1.91% | 1.91% | 1.91% |
| EBIAT | 18.48 | 18.78 | 5.38 | 26.71 | 38.17 | 38.55 | 57.20 | 84.87 | 125.93 | 186.86 |
| Depreciation | 0.55 | 0.73 | 1.02 | 1.09 | 1.60 | 2.08 | 3.08 | 4.57 | 6.79 | 10.07 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.56 | 0.58 | -1.21 | -7.42 | 0.14 | -6.50 | -9.64 | -14.31 | -21.23 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.21 | 1.12 | 0.58 | 2.79 | 3.07 | 5.92 | 8.78 | 13.03 | 19.33 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | 43.84 | 59.70 | 88.58 | 131.44 | 195.03 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 41.13 | 52.55 | 73.17 | 101.86 | 141.81 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 410.52 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.58 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 198.93 |
| Terminal Value | 4,343.36 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,158.25 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 3,568.78 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 413.47 |
| Equity Value | 3,155.31 |
| Shares Outstanding | 24.73 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 127.61 |