Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Horizon Technology Finance Corporat... (HRZN)

$11.55

+0.17 (+1.49%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 127.61 | 11.55 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 14.9021.3010.3333.2726.6439.5358.6687.04129.14191.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 19.0819.746.5928.1841.0741.3861.3991.09135.17200.56
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 18.5219.015.5727.0939.4639.3058.3186.52128.38190.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.550.731.021.091.602.083.084.576.7910.07
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 12.596.4719.5038.0520.6139.1758.1186.23127.95189.85
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3.975.534.956.1513.5713.4319.9329.5743.8865.11
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3.464.675.796.379.1612.2318.1426.9239.9559.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure ----------
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.55
Beta 1.159
Diluted Shares Outstanding 24.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 3.27
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.28%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.092
Total Debt 434.08
Total Equity 285.59
Total Capital 719.66
Debt Weighting 60.32
Equity Weighting 39.68
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 14.9021.3010.3333.2726.6439.5358.6687.04129.14191.63
EBITDA 19.0819.746.5928.1841.0741.3861.3991.09135.17200.56
EBIT 18.5219.015.5727.0939.4639.3058.3186.52128.38190.49
Tax Rate 0.26%1.21%3.37%1.42%3.27%1.91%1.91%1.91%1.91%1.91%
EBIAT 18.4818.785.3826.7138.1738.5557.2084.87125.93186.86
Depreciation 0.550.731.021.091.602.083.084.576.7910.07
Accounts Receivable --1.560.58-1.21-7.420.14-6.50-9.64-14.31-21.23
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -1.211.120.582.793.075.928.7813.0319.33
Capital Expenditure ----------
UFCF -----43.8459.7088.58131.44195.03
WACC
PV UFCF 41.1352.5573.17101.86141.81
SUM PV UFCF 410.52

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.58
Free cash flow (t + 1) 198.93
Terminal Value 4,343.36
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,158.25

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,568.78
Net Debt 413.47
Equity Value 3,155.31
Shares Outstanding 24.73
Equity Value Per Share 127.61