Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC)

$34.13

-0.16 (-0.47%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 127.44 | 34.13 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 63,79670,86162,88363,64467,01368,071.7069,147.1370,239.5571,349.2372,476.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 39,64546,77427,32632,11543,21539,012.5339,628.8740,254.9440,890.9141,536.92
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 37,71236,25522,08527,82939,34233,740.6734,273.7234,815.1935,365.2235,923.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,93310,5195,2414,2863,8735,271.865,355.155,439.755,525.695,612.99
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 182,383173,885328,726422,437350,051304,980.90309,799.13314,693.49319,665.17324,715.39
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 18,33819,25510,27815,330.2116,141.7116,396.7316,655.7716,918.9117,186.2017,457.72
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,044-3,632-3,510-3,565-4,410-3,765.87-3,825.37-3,885.80-3,947.19-4,009.55
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 34.13
Beta 0.617
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,060.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.52
After-tax Cost of Debt 10.05%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.406
Total Debt 204,239
Total Equity 138,581.45
Total Capital 342,820.45
Debt Weighting 59.58
Equity Weighting 40.42
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 63,79670,86162,88363,64467,01368,071.7069,147.1370,239.5571,349.2372,476.44
EBITDA 39,64546,77427,32632,11543,21539,012.5339,628.8740,254.9440,890.9141,536.92
EBIT 37,71236,25522,08527,82939,34233,740.6734,273.7234,815.1935,365.2235,923.93
Tax Rate 30.99%44.68%40.42%26.39%8.52%30.20%30.20%30.20%30.20%30.20%
EBIAT 26,026.7820,054.7413,157.4020,485.3635,990.9323,55123,923.0724,301.0224,684.9425,074.93
Depreciation 1,93310,5195,2414,2863,8735,271.865,355.155,439.755,525.695,612.99
Accounts Receivable --9178,977-5,052.21-811.51-255.01-259.04-263.14-267.29-271.52
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -3,044-3,632-3,510-3,565-4,410-3,765.87-3,825.37-3,885.80-3,947.19-4,009.55
UFCF 24,915.7826,024.7423,865.4016,154.1534,642.4224,801.9825,193.8125,591.8425,996.1526,406.85
WACC
PV UFCF 22,842.1321,369.4919,991.8018,702.9317,497.15
SUM PV UFCF 100,403.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.58
Free cash flow (t + 1) 26,934.99
Terminal Value 409,346.31
Present Value of Terminal Value 271,232.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 371,635.99
Net Debt -145,812
Equity Value 517,447.99
Shares Outstanding 4,060.40
Equity Value Per Share 127.44