Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC)
$34.13
-0.16 (-0.47%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 63,796 | 70,861 | 62,883 | 63,644 | 67,013 | 68,071.70 | 69,147.13 | 70,239.55 | 71,349.23 | 72,476.44 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 39,645 | 46,774 | 27,326 | 32,115 | 43,215 | 39,012.53 | 39,628.87 | 40,254.94 | 40,890.91 | 41,536.92 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 37,712 | 36,255 | 22,085 | 27,829 | 39,342 | 33,740.67 | 34,273.72 | 34,815.19 | 35,365.22 | 35,923.93 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,933 | 10,519 | 5,241 | 4,286 | 3,873 | 5,271.86 | 5,355.15 | 5,439.75 | 5,525.69 | 5,612.99 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 182,383 | 173,885 | 328,726 | 422,437 | 350,051 | 304,980.90 | 309,799.13 | 314,693.49 | 319,665.17 | 324,715.39 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 18,338 | 19,255 | 10,278 | 15,330.21 | 16,141.71 | 16,396.73 | 16,655.77 | 16,918.91 | 17,186.20 | 17,457.72 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -3,044 | -3,632 | -3,510 | -3,565 | -4,410 | -3,765.87 | -3,825.37 | -3,885.80 | -3,947.19 | -4,009.55 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 34.13 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.617 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4,060.40 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 8.52 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 10.05% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.406 |
Total Debt | 204,239 |
Total Equity | 138,581.45 |
Total Capital | 342,820.45 |
Debt Weighting | 59.58 |
Equity Weighting | 40.42 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 63,796 | 70,861 | 62,883 | 63,644 | 67,013 | 68,071.70 | 69,147.13 | 70,239.55 | 71,349.23 | 72,476.44 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 39,645 | 46,774 | 27,326 | 32,115 | 43,215 | 39,012.53 | 39,628.87 | 40,254.94 | 40,890.91 | 41,536.92 |
EBIT | 37,712 | 36,255 | 22,085 | 27,829 | 39,342 | 33,740.67 | 34,273.72 | 34,815.19 | 35,365.22 | 35,923.93 |
Tax Rate | 30.99% | 44.68% | 40.42% | 26.39% | 8.52% | 30.20% | 30.20% | 30.20% | 30.20% | 30.20% |
EBIAT | 26,026.78 | 20,054.74 | 13,157.40 | 20,485.36 | 35,990.93 | 23,551 | 23,923.07 | 24,301.02 | 24,684.94 | 25,074.93 |
Depreciation | 1,933 | 10,519 | 5,241 | 4,286 | 3,873 | 5,271.86 | 5,355.15 | 5,439.75 | 5,525.69 | 5,612.99 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -917 | 8,977 | -5,052.21 | -811.51 | -255.01 | -259.04 | -263.14 | -267.29 | -271.52 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Capital Expenditure | -3,044 | -3,632 | -3,510 | -3,565 | -4,410 | -3,765.87 | -3,825.37 | -3,885.80 | -3,947.19 | -4,009.55 |
UFCF | 24,915.78 | 26,024.74 | 23,865.40 | 16,154.15 | 34,642.42 | 24,801.98 | 25,193.81 | 25,591.84 | 25,996.15 | 26,406.85 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 22,842.13 | 21,369.49 | 19,991.80 | 18,702.93 | 17,497.15 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 100,403.51 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.58 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 26,934.99 |
Terminal Value | 409,346.31 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 271,232.48 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 371,635.99 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -145,812 |
Equity Value | 517,447.99 |
Shares Outstanding | 4,060.40 |
Equity Value Per Share | 127.44 |