Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Histogen Inc. (HSTO)

$2.01

-0.11 (-5.19%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1.66 | 2.01 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 35.3833.5921.722.061.030.570.310.170.090.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -16.63-17.22-11.24-18.67-15.01-2.84-1.56-0.85-0.47-0.26
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -16.73-17.31-11.39-18.77-15.02-2.85-1.56-0.86-0.47-0.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.110.090.150.100.020.010000
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 74.8540.6920.706.7618.682.901.590.870.480.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3.373.680.120.140.170.050.030.010.010
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ---0.300.150.080.050.020.010.01
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable --1.060.541.390.310.170.090.050.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.03-0.07-0.15-0.05-0.01-0-0-0-0-0
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.01
Beta 0.572
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.548
Total Debt -
Total Equity 7.71
Total Capital 7.71
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 35.3833.5921.722.061.030.570.310.170.090.05
EBITDA -16.63-17.22-11.24-18.67-15.01-2.84-1.56-0.85-0.47-0.26
EBIT -16.73-17.31-11.39-18.77-15.02-2.85-1.56-0.86-0.47-0.26
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.26%0.00%0.05%0.05%0.05%0.05%0.05%
EBIAT -16.73-17.31-11.39-18.72-15.02-2.85-1.56-0.86-0.47-0.26
Depreciation 0.110.090.150.100.020.010000
Accounts Receivable --0.313.55-0.02-0.020.120.020.010.010
Inventories ----0.150.070.040.020.010.01
Accounts Payable ----0.530.85-1.08-0.14-0.08-0.04-0.02
Capital Expenditure -0.03-0.07-0.15-0.05-0.01-0-0-0-0-0
UFCF -16.65-17.60-7.84-19.22-14.04-3.74-1.64-0.90-0.49-0.27
WACC
PV UFCF -3.54-1.47-0.76-0.40-0.21
SUM PV UFCF -6.38

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.55
Free cash flow (t + 1) -0.28
Terminal Value -7.76
Present Value of Terminal Value -5.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -12.30
Net Debt -18.68
Equity Value 6.38
Shares Outstanding 3.84
Equity Value Per Share 1.66