Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Heartland Financial USA, Inc. (HTLF)
$31.27
+1.78 (+6.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 520.91 | 569.36 | 606.92 | 688.91 | 727.55 | 791.24 | 860.50 | 935.83 | 1,017.76 | 1,106.85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 227.87 | 295.52 | 246.16 | 312.85 | 352.01 | 363.97 | 395.84 | 430.49 | 468.17 | 509.16 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 197.08 | 264.72 | 218.87 | 276.53 | 313.65 | 322.26 | 350.47 | 381.15 | 414.52 | 450.80 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 30.79 | 30.80 | 27.29 | 36.32 | 38.36 | 41.72 | 45.37 | 49.34 | 53.66 | 58.35 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2,729.01 | 382.30 | 341.03 | 438.49 | 2,112.02 | 1,584.34 | 1,723.03 | 1,873.87 | 2,037.90 | 2,216.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -12.74 | -17.93 | -18.54 | -19.86 | -20.98 | -22.81 | -24.81 | -26.98 | -29.35 | -31.91 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 31.27 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.042 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 42.48 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.76 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 8.10% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.618 |
| Total Debt | 747.87 |
| Total Equity | 1,328.33 |
| Total Capital | 2,076.20 |
| Debt Weighting | 36.02 |
| Equity Weighting | 63.98 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 520.91 | 569.36 | 606.92 | 688.91 | 727.55 | 791.24 | 860.50 | 935.83 | 1,017.76 | 1,106.85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 227.87 | 295.52 | 246.16 | 312.85 | 352.01 | 363.97 | 395.84 | 430.49 | 468.17 | 509.16 |
| EBIT | 197.08 | 264.72 | 218.87 | 276.53 | 313.65 | 322.26 | 350.47 | 381.15 | 414.52 | 450.80 |
| Tax Rate | 19.43% | 19.00% | 20.72% | 20.10% | 20.76% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% |
| EBIAT | 158.79 | 214.41 | 173.52 | 220.94 | 248.55 | 257.80 | 280.37 | 304.91 | 331.60 | 360.63 |
| Depreciation | 30.79 | 30.80 | 27.29 | 36.32 | 38.36 | 41.72 | 45.37 | 49.34 | 53.66 | 58.35 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -12.74 | -17.93 | -18.54 | -19.86 | -14.80 | -22.81 | -24.81 | -26.98 | -29.35 | -31.91 |
| UFCF | 176.84 | 227.28 | 182.27 | 237.40 | 265.93 | 276.70 | 300.92 | 327.27 | 355.91 | 387.07 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 255.19 | 255.95 | 256.72 | 257.48 | 258.25 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,283.59 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.43 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 394.81 |
| Terminal Value | 6,140.17 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,096.69 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 5,380.28 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 383.04 |
| Equity Value | 4,997.23 |
| Shares Outstanding | 42.48 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 117.64 |