Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Huize Holding Limited (HUIZ)

$1.24

+0.12 (+10.71%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -187.21 | 1.24 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 42.1381.41158.93195.24359.20624.361,085.241,886.353,278.815,699.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -14.915.383.03-0.30-16.71-39.57-68.77-119.54-207.78-361.16
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -15.484.892.42-2.46-23.17-46.12-80.16-139.33-242.17-420.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.570.490.602.166.466.5511.3819.7934.3959.78
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1.961.0614.1064.7460.9981.13141.02245.12426.06740.57
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13.3220.7430.4937.74124.58162.70282.80491.56854.411,485.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.4711.7519.9136.41108.86102.12177.51308.54536.30932.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.42-0.18-0.97-1.31-6.09-5.25-9.12-15.85-27.55-47.89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.24
Beta 0.951
Diluted Shares Outstanding 107.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.46
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.62%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.614
Total Debt 80.12
Total Equity 133.28
Total Capital 213.41
Debt Weighting 37.55
Equity Weighting 62.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 42.1381.41158.93195.24359.20624.361,085.241,886.353,278.815,699.15
EBITDA -14.915.383.03-0.30-16.71-39.57-68.77-119.54-207.78-361.16
EBIT -15.484.892.42-2.46-23.17-46.12-80.16-139.33-242.17-420.94
Tax Rate 0.47%-66.24%1.99%-9.12%2.46%-14.09%-14.09%-14.09%-14.09%-14.09%
EBIAT -15.418.122.38-2.68-22.60-52.61-91.45-158.96-276.30-480.25
Depreciation 0.570.490.602.166.466.5511.3819.7934.3959.78
Accounts Receivable --7.41-9.75-7.26-86.83-38.12-120.10-208.76-362.86-630.71
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -9.288.1616.4972.45-6.7375.39131.03227.76395.89
Capital Expenditure -0.42-0.18-0.97-1.31-6.09-5.25-9.12-15.85-27.55-47.89
UFCF -15.2610.300.427.41-36.61-96.17-133.90-232.75-404.56-703.19
WACC
PV UFCF -91.60-121.48-201.11-332.96-551.23
SUM PV UFCF -1,298.37

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.99
Free cash flow (t + 1) -717.25
Terminal Value -23,988.38
Present Value of Terminal Value -18,804.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -20,102.85
Net Debt 19.14
Equity Value -20,121.99
Shares Outstanding 107.49
Equity Value Per Share -187.21