Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Huize Holding Limited (HUIZ)
$1.24
+0.12 (+10.71%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 42.13 | 81.41 | 158.93 | 195.24 | 359.20 | 624.36 | 1,085.24 | 1,886.35 | 3,278.81 | 5,699.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -14.91 | 5.38 | 3.03 | -0.30 | -16.71 | -39.57 | -68.77 | -119.54 | -207.78 | -361.16 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -15.48 | 4.89 | 2.42 | -2.46 | -23.17 | -46.12 | -80.16 | -139.33 | -242.17 | -420.94 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.57 | 0.49 | 0.60 | 2.16 | 6.46 | 6.55 | 11.38 | 19.79 | 34.39 | 59.78 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1.96 | 1.06 | 14.10 | 64.74 | 60.99 | 81.13 | 141.02 | 245.12 | 426.06 | 740.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 13.32 | 20.74 | 30.49 | 37.74 | 124.58 | 162.70 | 282.80 | 491.56 | 854.41 | 1,485.12 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 2.47 | 11.75 | 19.91 | 36.41 | 108.86 | 102.12 | 177.51 | 308.54 | 536.30 | 932.19 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.42 | -0.18 | -0.97 | -1.31 | -6.09 | -5.25 | -9.12 | -15.85 | -27.55 | -47.89 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.24 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.951 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 2.46 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.614 |
| Total Debt | 80.12 |
| Total Equity | 133.28 |
| Total Capital | 213.41 |
| Debt Weighting | 37.55 |
| Equity Weighting | 62.45 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 42.13 | 81.41 | 158.93 | 195.24 | 359.20 | 624.36 | 1,085.24 | 1,886.35 | 3,278.81 | 5,699.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -14.91 | 5.38 | 3.03 | -0.30 | -16.71 | -39.57 | -68.77 | -119.54 | -207.78 | -361.16 |
| EBIT | -15.48 | 4.89 | 2.42 | -2.46 | -23.17 | -46.12 | -80.16 | -139.33 | -242.17 | -420.94 |
| Tax Rate | 0.47% | -66.24% | 1.99% | -9.12% | 2.46% | -14.09% | -14.09% | -14.09% | -14.09% | -14.09% |
| EBIAT | -15.41 | 8.12 | 2.38 | -2.68 | -22.60 | -52.61 | -91.45 | -158.96 | -276.30 | -480.25 |
| Depreciation | 0.57 | 0.49 | 0.60 | 2.16 | 6.46 | 6.55 | 11.38 | 19.79 | 34.39 | 59.78 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -7.41 | -9.75 | -7.26 | -86.83 | -38.12 | -120.10 | -208.76 | -362.86 | -630.71 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 9.28 | 8.16 | 16.49 | 72.45 | -6.73 | 75.39 | 131.03 | 227.76 | 395.89 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.42 | -0.18 | -0.97 | -1.31 | -6.09 | -5.25 | -9.12 | -15.85 | -27.55 | -47.89 |
| UFCF | -15.26 | 10.30 | 0.42 | 7.41 | -36.61 | -96.17 | -133.90 | -232.75 | -404.56 | -703.19 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -91.60 | -121.48 | -201.11 | -332.96 | -551.23 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,298.37 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.99 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -717.25 |
| Terminal Value | -23,988.38 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -18,804.48 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -20,102.85 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 19.14 |
| Equity Value | -20,121.99 |
| Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -187.21 |