Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Humana Inc. (HUM)
$476.57
-13.20 (-2.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 53,767 | 56,912 | 64,888 | 77,155 | 83,064 | 92,705.12 | 103,465.27 | 115,474.33 | 128,877.27 | 143,835.87 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 4,747 | 2,826 | 4,287 | 5,573 | 4,457 | 6,116.69 | 6,826.64 | 7,619 | 8,503.33 | 9,490.30 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 4,262 | 2,292 | 3,712 | 4,957 | 3,744 | 5,303.99 | 5,919.62 | 6,606.70 | 7,373.53 | 8,229.37 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 485 | 534 | 575 | 616 | 713 | 812.70 | 907.03 | 1,012.30 | 1,129.80 | 1,260.93 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 13,599 | 12,369 | 15,026 | 17,227 | 16,586 | 20,854.64 | 23,275.21 | 25,976.73 | 28,991.81 | 32,356.85 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 854 | 1,015 | 1,056 | 1,138 | 1,814 | 1,605.29 | 1,791.61 | 1,999.56 | 2,231.64 | 2,490.67 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 11,660 | 8,148 | 9,964 | 12,156 | 12,798 | 15,300.31 | 17,076.20 | 19,058.20 | 21,270.26 | 23,739.07 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -526 | -612 | -736 | -964 | -1,316 | -1,116.48 | -1,246.06 | -1,390.69 | -1,552.11 | -1,732.26 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 476.57 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.740 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 129.40 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 12.55 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.22% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.109 |
Total Debt | 12,820 |
Total Equity | 61,666.25 |
Total Capital | 74,486.25 |
Debt Weighting | 17.21 |
Equity Weighting | 82.79 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 53,767 | 56,912 | 64,888 | 77,155 | 83,064 | 92,705.12 | 103,465.27 | 115,474.33 | 128,877.27 | 143,835.87 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 4,747 | 2,826 | 4,287 | 5,573 | 4,457 | 6,116.69 | 6,826.64 | 7,619 | 8,503.33 | 9,490.30 |
EBIT | 4,262 | 2,292 | 3,712 | 4,957 | 3,744 | 5,303.99 | 5,919.62 | 6,606.70 | 7,373.53 | 8,229.37 |
Tax Rate | 39.10% | 18.42% | 21.67% | 26.80% | 12.55% | 23.71% | 23.71% | 23.71% | 23.71% | 23.71% |
EBIAT | 2,595.37 | 1,869.82 | 2,907.52 | 3,628.31 | 3,274.05 | 4,046.38 | 4,516.04 | 5,040.21 | 5,625.22 | 6,278.13 |
Depreciation | 485 | 534 | 575 | 616 | 713 | 812.70 | 907.03 | 1,012.30 | 1,129.80 | 1,260.93 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -161 | -41 | -82 | -676 | 208.71 | -186.32 | -207.95 | -232.09 | -259.02 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | -3,512 | 1,816 | 2,192 | 642 | 2,502.31 | 1,775.89 | 1,982.01 | 2,212.06 | 2,468.81 |
Capital Expenditure | -526 | -612 | -736 | -964 | -1,316 | -1,116.48 | -1,246.06 | -1,390.69 | -1,552.11 | -1,732.26 |
UFCF | 2,554.37 | -1,881.18 | 4,521.52 | 5,390.31 | 2,637.05 | 6,453.63 | 5,766.56 | 6,435.88 | 7,182.88 | 8,016.59 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 6,072.86 | 5,106.17 | 5,362.61 | 5,631.91 | 5,914.75 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 28,088.30 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.27 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 8,176.92 |
Terminal Value | 191,496.97 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 141,289.05 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 169,377.35 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 9,426 |
Equity Value | 159,951.35 |
Shares Outstanding | 129.40 |
Equity Value Per Share | 1,236.14 |