Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Huntsman Corporation (HUN)
$24.61
+0.29 (+1.19%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 9,379 | 6,797 | 6,018 | 8,453 | 8,023 | 7,950.48 | 7,878.62 | 7,807.41 | 7,736.84 | 7,666.90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,462 | 502 | 560 | 1,010 | 1,141 | 929.40 | 921 | 912.67 | 904.42 | 896.25 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 1,119 | 232 | 277 | 714 | 860 | 621.93 | 616.31 | 610.74 | 605.22 | 599.75 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 343 | 270 | 283 | 296 | 281 | 307.46 | 304.68 | 301.93 | 299.20 | 296.50 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 340 | 525 | 1,593 | 1,041 | 654 | 926.81 | 918.43 | 910.13 | 901.90 | 893.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,272 | 953 | 910 | 1,519 | 834 | 1,130.07 | 1,119.86 | 1,109.74 | 1,099.71 | 1,089.77 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1,134 | 914 | 848 | 1,201 | 995 | 1,053.26 | 1,043.74 | 1,034.31 | 1,024.96 | 1,015.69 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 961 | 822 | 876 | 1,208 | 961 | 1,004.39 | 995.31 | 986.31 | 977.40 | 968.56 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -313 | -274 | -249 | -342 | -272 | -301.20 | -298.48 | -295.78 | -293.10 | -290.46 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 24.61 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.145 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 203 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 34.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.80% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.646 |
| Total Debt | 1,737 |
| Total Equity | 4,995.83 |
| Total Capital | 6,732.83 |
| Debt Weighting | 25.80 |
| Equity Weighting | 74.20 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 9,379 | 6,797 | 6,018 | 8,453 | 8,023 | 7,950.48 | 7,878.62 | 7,807.41 | 7,736.84 | 7,666.90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,462 | 502 | 560 | 1,010 | 1,141 | 929.40 | 921 | 912.67 | 904.42 | 896.25 |
| EBIT | 1,119 | 232 | 277 | 714 | 860 | 621.93 | 616.31 | 610.74 | 605.22 | 599.75 |
| Tax Rate | 64.23% | -9.72% | 13.65% | 20.41% | 34.00% | 24.51% | 24.51% | 24.51% | 24.51% | 24.51% |
| EBIAT | 400.32 | 254.55 | 239.19 | 568.26 | 567.58 | 469.47 | 465.23 | 461.02 | 456.86 | 452.73 |
| Depreciation | 343 | 270 | 283 | 296 | 281 | 307.46 | 304.68 | 301.93 | 299.20 | 296.50 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 319 | 43 | -609 | 685 | -296.07 | 10.21 | 10.12 | 10.03 | 9.94 |
| Inventories | - | 220 | 66 | -353 | 206 | -58.26 | 9.52 | 9.43 | 9.35 | 9.26 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -139 | 54 | 332 | -247 | 43.39 | -9.08 | -9 | -8.92 | -8.83 |
| Capital Expenditure | -313 | -274 | -249 | -342 | -272 | -301.20 | -298.48 | -295.78 | -293.10 | -290.46 |
| UFCF | 430.32 | 650.55 | 436.19 | -107.74 | 1,220.58 | 164.79 | 482.09 | 477.74 | 473.42 | 469.14 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 152.75 | 414.24 | 380.51 | 349.53 | 321.07 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,618.09 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.88 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 478.52 |
| Terminal Value | 8,138.11 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,569.53 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 7,187.62 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,083 |
| Equity Value | 6,104.62 |
| Shares Outstanding | 203 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 30.07 |