Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Huntsman Corporation (HUN)
$24.67
-0.23 (-0.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 9,379 | 6,797 | 6,018 | 8,453 | 8,023 | 7,950.48 | 7,878.62 | 7,807.41 | 7,736.84 | 7,666.90 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,462 | 502 | 560 | 1,010 | 1,141 | 929.40 | 921 | 912.67 | 904.42 | 896.25 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,119 | 232 | 277 | 714 | 860 | 621.93 | 616.31 | 610.74 | 605.22 | 599.75 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 343 | 270 | 283 | 296 | 281 | 307.46 | 304.68 | 301.93 | 299.20 | 296.50 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 340 | 525 | 1,593 | 1,041 | 654 | 926.81 | 918.43 | 910.13 | 901.90 | 893.75 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,272 | 953 | 910 | 1,519 | 834 | 1,130.07 | 1,119.86 | 1,109.74 | 1,099.71 | 1,089.77 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,134 | 914 | 848 | 1,201 | 995 | 1,053.26 | 1,043.74 | 1,034.31 | 1,024.96 | 1,015.69 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 961 | 822 | 876 | 1,208 | 961 | 1,004.39 | 995.31 | 986.31 | 977.40 | 968.56 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -313 | -274 | -249 | -342 | -272 | -301.20 | -298.48 | -295.78 | -293.10 | -290.46 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 24.67 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.175 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 203 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 34.00 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.36% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.021 |
Total Debt | 1,737 |
Total Equity | 5,008.01 |
Total Capital | 6,745.01 |
Debt Weighting | 25.75 |
Equity Weighting | 74.25 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 9,379 | 6,797 | 6,018 | 8,453 | 8,023 | 7,950.48 | 7,878.62 | 7,807.41 | 7,736.84 | 7,666.90 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,462 | 502 | 560 | 1,010 | 1,141 | 929.40 | 921 | 912.67 | 904.42 | 896.25 |
EBIT | 1,119 | 232 | 277 | 714 | 860 | 621.93 | 616.31 | 610.74 | 605.22 | 599.75 |
Tax Rate | 64.23% | -9.72% | 13.65% | 20.41% | 34.00% | 24.51% | 24.51% | 24.51% | 24.51% | 24.51% |
EBIAT | 400.32 | 254.55 | 239.19 | 568.26 | 567.58 | 469.47 | 465.23 | 461.02 | 456.86 | 452.73 |
Depreciation | 343 | 270 | 283 | 296 | 281 | 307.46 | 304.68 | 301.93 | 299.20 | 296.50 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 319 | 43 | -609 | 685 | -296.07 | 10.21 | 10.12 | 10.03 | 9.94 |
Inventories | - | 220 | 66 | -353 | 206 | -58.26 | 9.52 | 9.43 | 9.35 | 9.26 |
Accounts Payable | - | -139 | 54 | 332 | -247 | 43.39 | -9.08 | -9 | -8.92 | -8.83 |
Capital Expenditure | -313 | -274 | -249 | -342 | -272 | -301.20 | -298.48 | -295.78 | -293.10 | -290.46 |
UFCF | 430.32 | 650.55 | 436.19 | -107.74 | 1,220.58 | 164.79 | 482.09 | 477.74 | 473.42 | 469.14 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 152.51 | 412.93 | 378.72 | 347.33 | 318.55 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,610.04 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.05 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 478.52 |
Terminal Value | 7,909.43 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,370.58 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 6,980.63 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,083 |
Equity Value | 5,897.63 |
Shares Outstanding | 203 |
Equity Value Per Share | 29.05 |