Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK)

$21.6

+0.11 (+0.51%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 162.71 | 21.6 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 48.2450.7053.7564.1175.0883.9993.96105.12117.60131.56
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 21.0627.3737.2329.4636.4143.9049.1154.9461.4768.76
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 19.3225.5735.1727.2034.1240.9545.8151.2557.3464.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.731.802.062.262.282.953.303.694.134.62
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 253.33254.14208.53226.64331.80371.20415.27464.58519.74581.45
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.636.166.486.648.689.7110.8612.1513.5915.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.551.041.140.841.241.391.551.741.942.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.27-2.33-2.17-1.83-0.59-2.50-2.80-3.13-3.50-3.92
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 21.6
Beta 0.466
Diluted Shares Outstanding 6.76
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.99%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.708
Total Debt -
Total Equity 145.94
Total Capital 145.94
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 48.2450.7053.7564.1175.0883.9993.96105.12117.60131.56
EBITDA 21.0627.3737.2329.4636.4143.9049.1154.9461.4768.76
EBIT 19.3225.5735.1727.2034.1240.9545.8151.2557.3464.15
Tax Rate 69.83%13.47%19.18%18.21%20.19%28.18%28.18%28.18%28.18%28.18%
EBIAT 5.8322.1228.4322.2427.2329.4132.9036.8141.1846.07
Depreciation 1.731.802.062.262.282.953.303.694.134.62
Accounts Receivable --0.54-0.32-0.16-2.04-1.03-1.15-1.29-1.44-1.61
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.480.10-0.300.400.150.160.180.210.23
Capital Expenditure -1.27-2.33-2.17-1.83-0.59-2.50-2.80-3.13-3.50-3.92
UFCF 6.3021.5428.1022.2227.2928.9832.4236.2740.5745.39
WACC
PV UFCF 27.4129.0130.7032.4934.39
SUM PV UFCF 154

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.71
Free cash flow (t + 1) 46.30
Terminal Value 1,247.94
Present Value of Terminal Value 945.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,099.40
Net Debt -
Equity Value 1,099.40
Shares Outstanding 6.76
Equity Value Per Share 162.71