Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hyster-Yale Materials Handling, Inc... (HY)

$68.26

-2.03 (-2.89%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -58.54 | 68.26 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,174.403,291.802,812.103,075.703,548.303,671.293,798.553,930.224,066.454,207.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 96.6067.7055.90-73.809.4036.3737.6338.9340.2841.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 52.6024.4013-120-34-14.68-15.19-15.71-16.26-16.82
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4443.3042.9046.2043.4051.0552.8254.6556.5458.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 83.7064.60151.4065.5059101.15104.65108.28112.03115.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 465.50468.30412.10457.40523.60537.28555.90575.17595.11615.74
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 533.60559.90509.40781799.50733.21758.63784.92812.13840.28
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 436.80417.10428.10541.40585.80556.32575.60595.56616.20637.56
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -38.80-49.70-51.70-44.30-28.80-50.10-51.83-53.63-55.49-57.41
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 68.26
Beta 1.509
Diluted Shares Outstanding 16.82
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -14.74
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.14%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.373
Total Debt 552.90
Total Equity 1,148
Total Capital 1,700.90
Debt Weighting 32.51
Equity Weighting 67.49
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,174.403,291.802,812.103,075.703,548.303,671.293,798.553,930.224,066.454,207.41
EBITDA 96.6067.7055.90-73.809.4036.3737.6338.9340.2841.68
EBIT 52.6024.4013-120-34-14.68-15.19-15.71-16.26-16.82
Tax Rate 5.19%25.26%12.09%-18.27%-14.74%1.90%1.90%1.90%1.90%1.90%
EBIAT 49.8718.2411.43-141.92-39.01-14.40-14.90-15.42-15.95-16.50
Depreciation 4443.3042.9046.2043.4051.0552.8254.6556.5458.50
Accounts Receivable --2.8056.20-45.30-66.20-13.68-18.62-19.27-19.94-20.63
Inventories --26.3050.50-271.60-18.5066.29-25.42-26.30-27.21-28.15
Accounts Payable --19.7011113.3044.40-29.4819.2819.9520.6421.36
Capital Expenditure -38.80-49.70-51.70-44.30-28.80-50.10-51.83-53.63-55.49-57.41
UFCF 55.07-36.96120.33-343.62-64.719.68-38.67-40.01-41.40-42.83
WACC
PV UFCF 8.86-32.34-30.60-28.95-27.39
SUM PV UFCF -110.43

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.35
Free cash flow (t + 1) -43.69
Terminal Value -594.39
Present Value of Terminal Value -380.17

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -490.60
Net Debt 493.90
Equity Value -984.50
Shares Outstanding 16.82
Equity Value Per Share -58.54