Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Horizon Global Corporation (HZN)

$0.63

+0.01 (+1.88%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -14.11 | 0.63 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 892.98849.95690.45661.23782.12763.48745.28727.52710.18693.25
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 53.95-157.20149.8916.45-39.2510.2710.029.789.559.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 28.61-182.58128.20-6.46-61.25-13.01-12.70-12.39-12.10-11.81
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 25.3425.3821.6922.912223.2822.7222.1821.6521.13
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 29.5727.6511.7744.9711.7825.3124.7124.1223.5422.98
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 91.77108.3471.6887.4280.7286.9584.8882.8680.8878.96
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 171.50173.69136.65115.32162.83149.17145.62142.14138.76135.45
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 138.73123.1378.4599.52102.19106.13103.60101.1398.7296.36
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -27.29-13.87-9.72-13.31-20.46-16.38-15.99-15.60-15.23-14.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.63
Beta 1.588
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.48
After-tax Cost of Debt -7.92%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.184
Total Debt 351.57
Total Equity 17.19
Total Capital 368.76
Debt Weighting 95.34
Equity Weighting 4.66
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 892.98849.95690.45661.23782.12763.48745.28727.52710.18693.25
EBITDA 53.95-157.20149.8916.45-39.2510.2710.029.789.559.32
EBIT 28.61-182.58128.20-6.46-61.25-13.01-12.70-12.39-12.10-11.81
Tax Rate 171.29%3.46%166.83%6.40%0.48%69.69%69.69%69.69%69.69%69.69%
EBIAT -20.39-176.27-85.68-6.05-60.96-3.94-3.85-3.76-3.67-3.58
Depreciation 25.3425.3821.6922.912223.2822.7222.1821.6521.13
Accounts Receivable --16.5736.66-15.746.70-6.232.072.021.971.93
Inventories --2.1937.0421.33-47.5113.663.563.473.393.31
Accounts Payable --15.60-44.6821.072.673.94-2.53-2.47-2.41-2.35
Capital Expenditure -27.29-13.87-9.72-13.31-20.46-16.38-15.99-15.60-15.23-14.87
UFCF -22.34-199.12-44.6930.21-97.5614.325.985.845.705.57
WACC
PV UFCF 15.406.927.277.638.02
SUM PV UFCF 45.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -7.03
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5.68
Terminal Value -62.88
Present Value of Terminal Value -90.54

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -45.29
Net Debt 339.79
Equity Value -385.08
Shares Outstanding 27.29
Equity Value Per Share -14.11