Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Horizon Global Corporation (HZN)
$0.63
+0.01 (+1.88%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 892.98 | 849.95 | 690.45 | 661.23 | 782.12 | 763.48 | 745.28 | 727.52 | 710.18 | 693.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 53.95 | -157.20 | 149.89 | 16.45 | -39.25 | 10.27 | 10.02 | 9.78 | 9.55 | 9.32 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 28.61 | -182.58 | 128.20 | -6.46 | -61.25 | -13.01 | -12.70 | -12.39 | -12.10 | -11.81 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 25.34 | 25.38 | 21.69 | 22.91 | 22 | 23.28 | 22.72 | 22.18 | 21.65 | 21.13 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 29.57 | 27.65 | 11.77 | 44.97 | 11.78 | 25.31 | 24.71 | 24.12 | 23.54 | 22.98 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 91.77 | 108.34 | 71.68 | 87.42 | 80.72 | 86.95 | 84.88 | 82.86 | 80.88 | 78.96 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 171.50 | 173.69 | 136.65 | 115.32 | 162.83 | 149.17 | 145.62 | 142.14 | 138.76 | 135.45 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 138.73 | 123.13 | 78.45 | 99.52 | 102.19 | 106.13 | 103.60 | 101.13 | 98.72 | 96.36 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -27.29 | -13.87 | -9.72 | -13.31 | -20.46 | -16.38 | -15.99 | -15.60 | -15.23 | -14.87 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.63 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.588 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 27.29 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.48 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -7.92% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.184 |
| Total Debt | 351.57 |
| Total Equity | 17.19 |
| Total Capital | 368.76 |
| Debt Weighting | 95.34 |
| Equity Weighting | 4.66 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 892.98 | 849.95 | 690.45 | 661.23 | 782.12 | 763.48 | 745.28 | 727.52 | 710.18 | 693.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 53.95 | -157.20 | 149.89 | 16.45 | -39.25 | 10.27 | 10.02 | 9.78 | 9.55 | 9.32 |
| EBIT | 28.61 | -182.58 | 128.20 | -6.46 | -61.25 | -13.01 | -12.70 | -12.39 | -12.10 | -11.81 |
| Tax Rate | 171.29% | 3.46% | 166.83% | 6.40% | 0.48% | 69.69% | 69.69% | 69.69% | 69.69% | 69.69% |
| EBIAT | -20.39 | -176.27 | -85.68 | -6.05 | -60.96 | -3.94 | -3.85 | -3.76 | -3.67 | -3.58 |
| Depreciation | 25.34 | 25.38 | 21.69 | 22.91 | 22 | 23.28 | 22.72 | 22.18 | 21.65 | 21.13 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -16.57 | 36.66 | -15.74 | 6.70 | -6.23 | 2.07 | 2.02 | 1.97 | 1.93 |
| Inventories | - | -2.19 | 37.04 | 21.33 | -47.51 | 13.66 | 3.56 | 3.47 | 3.39 | 3.31 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -15.60 | -44.68 | 21.07 | 2.67 | 3.94 | -2.53 | -2.47 | -2.41 | -2.35 |
| Capital Expenditure | -27.29 | -13.87 | -9.72 | -13.31 | -20.46 | -16.38 | -15.99 | -15.60 | -15.23 | -14.87 |
| UFCF | -22.34 | -199.12 | -44.69 | 30.21 | -97.56 | 14.32 | 5.98 | 5.84 | 5.70 | 5.57 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 15.40 | 6.92 | 7.27 | 7.63 | 8.02 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 45.24 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | -7.03 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 5.68 |
| Terminal Value | -62.88 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -90.54 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -45.29 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 339.79 |
| Equity Value | -385.08 |
| Shares Outstanding | 27.29 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -14.11 |