Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MarineMax, Inc. (HZO)

$32.54

-0.60 (-1.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1.36 | 32.54 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,237.151,509.712,063.262,308.102,394.712,839.623,367.193,992.784,734.595,614.23
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 60.53106.71209.46265.20200.80238.46282.77335.30397.60471.47
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 48.9493.94193.85245.79159.77209.53248.46294.62349.36414.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 11.6012.7715.6119.4241.0328.9334.3140.6848.2457.20
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 38.51155.49222.19228.27201.46241.28286.10339.26402.29477.03
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 42.4040.2047.6550.2985.7880.4295.36113.07134.08158.99
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 477.47298230.98454.36812.83699.43829.38983.471,166.191,382.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 33.6737.3425.7434.3471.7162.0573.5787.24103.45122.67
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -17.06-12.81-26.13-58.46-65.41-49.74-58.98-69.93-82.93-98.33
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 32.54
Beta 1.677
Diluted Shares Outstanding 22.43
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.88
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.62%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.188
Total Debt 1,093.92
Total Equity 729.85
Total Capital 1,823.77
Debt Weighting 59.98
Equity Weighting 40.02
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,237.151,509.712,063.262,308.102,394.712,839.623,367.193,992.784,734.595,614.23
EBITDA 60.53106.71209.46265.20200.80238.46282.77335.30397.60471.47
EBIT 48.9493.94193.85245.79159.77209.53248.46294.62349.36414.26
Tax Rate 26.49%23.41%24.69%24.41%25.88%24.97%24.97%24.97%24.97%24.97%
EBIAT 35.9771.96145.99185.79118.42157.20186.41221.04262.11310.80
Depreciation 11.6012.7715.6119.4241.0328.9334.3140.6848.2457.20
Accounts Receivable -2.20-7.46-2.64-35.495.36-14.94-17.72-21.01-24.91
Inventories -179.4767.02-223.37-358.47113.40-129.95-154.09-182.72-216.67
Accounts Payable -3.67-11.608.6037.36-9.6611.5313.6716.2119.22
Capital Expenditure -17.06-12.81-26.13-58.46-65.41-49.74-58.98-69.93-82.93-98.33
UFCF 30.51257.26183.43-70.65-262.55245.5028.3833.6539.9047.32
WACC
PV UFCF 229.3324.7627.4330.3833.66
SUM PV UFCF 345.56

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.05
Free cash flow (t + 1) 47.55
Terminal Value 725.98
Present Value of Terminal Value 516.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 861.97
Net Debt 892.46
Equity Value -30.49
Shares Outstanding 22.43
Equity Value Per Share -1.36