Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Independent Bank Group, Inc. (IBTX)
$34.57
+1.20 (+3.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 368.35 | 580.65 | 601.14 | 587.14 | 610.17 | 705.90 | 816.65 | 944.77 | 1,092.99 | 1,264.47 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 255.17 | 419.10 | 372.84 | 370.44 | 370.53 | 462.07 | 534.56 | 618.43 | 715.45 | 827.70 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 241.04 | 394.44 | 347.44 | 345.47 | 343.10 | 432.34 | 500.17 | 578.64 | 669.42 | 774.45 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 14.13 | 24.66 | 25.40 | 24.96 | 27.43 | 29.73 | 34.39 | 39.78 | 46.03 | 53.25 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 817.35 | 1,656.83 | 2,972.16 | 4,618.42 | 2,346.60 | 3,067.59 | 3,548.86 | 4,105.65 | 4,749.78 | 5,494.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -38.11 | -31.68 | -21.14 | -71.36 | -62.96 | -59 | -68.25 | -78.96 | -91.35 | -105.68 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 34.57 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.365 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 43.10 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.30 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 12.42% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.052 |
| Total Debt | 621.49 |
| Total Equity | 1,490.11 |
| Total Capital | 2,111.59 |
| Debt Weighting | 29.43 |
| Equity Weighting | 70.57 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 368.35 | 580.65 | 601.14 | 587.14 | 610.17 | 705.90 | 816.65 | 944.77 | 1,092.99 | 1,264.47 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 255.17 | 419.10 | 372.84 | 370.44 | 370.53 | 462.07 | 534.56 | 618.43 | 715.45 | 827.70 |
| EBIT | 241.04 | 394.44 | 347.44 | 345.47 | 343.10 | 432.34 | 500.17 | 578.64 | 669.42 | 774.45 |
| Tax Rate | 19.84% | 21.74% | 20.28% | 20.37% | 20.30% | 20.50% | 20.50% | 20.50% | 20.50% | 20.50% |
| EBIAT | 193.22 | 308.70 | 276.99 | 275.11 | 273.45 | 343.69 | 397.62 | 460 | 532.17 | 615.66 |
| Depreciation | 14.13 | 24.66 | 25.40 | 24.96 | 27.43 | 29.73 | 34.39 | 39.78 | 46.03 | 53.25 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -38.11 | -31.68 | -21.14 | -71.36 | -62.96 | -59 | -68.25 | -78.96 | -91.35 | -105.68 |
| UFCF | 169.24 | 301.69 | 281.26 | 228.72 | 237.91 | 314.42 | 363.75 | 420.82 | 486.84 | 563.22 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 283.90 | 296.56 | 309.79 | 323.60 | 338.04 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,551.89 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.75 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 574.49 |
| Terminal Value | 6,565.58 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,940.53 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 5,492.43 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -33.33 |
| Equity Value | 5,525.76 |
| Shares Outstanding | 43.10 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 128.20 |