Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
ICF International, Inc. (ICFI)
$98.9
-2.25 (-2.22%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,229.16 | 1,337.97 | 1,478.53 | 1,506.88 | 1,553.05 | 1,647.55 | 1,747.80 | 1,854.14 | 1,966.96 | 2,086.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 111.12 | 118.74 | 129.07 | 122.31 | 142.31 | 144.74 | 153.54 | 162.89 | 172.80 | 183.31 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 82.54 | 91.54 | 100.89 | 88.56 | 110.34 | 109.93 | 116.62 | 123.72 | 131.25 | 139.23 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 28.58 | 27.21 | 28.18 | 33.75 | 31.97 | 34.81 | 36.92 | 39.17 | 41.55 | 44.08 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 11.81 | 11.69 | 6.48 | 13.84 | 8.25 | 12.27 | 13.01 | 13.81 | 14.65 | 15.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 297.11 | 364.16 | 410.83 | 368.20 | 386.38 | 423.38 | 449.14 | 476.47 | 505.47 | 536.22 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 75.07 | 102.60 | 134.58 | 91.36 | 105.65 | 117.78 | 124.95 | 132.55 | 140.62 | 149.17 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -14.51 | -21.81 | -26.90 | -17.68 | -19.93 | -23.35 | -24.77 | -26.28 | -27.88 | -29.58 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 98.9 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.553 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 19.12 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 28.93 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.12% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.127 |
| Total Debt | 648.31 |
| Total Equity | 1,891.36 |
| Total Capital | 2,539.67 |
| Debt Weighting | 25.53 |
| Equity Weighting | 74.47 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,229.16 | 1,337.97 | 1,478.53 | 1,506.88 | 1,553.05 | 1,647.55 | 1,747.80 | 1,854.14 | 1,966.96 | 2,086.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 111.12 | 118.74 | 129.07 | 122.31 | 142.31 | 144.74 | 153.54 | 162.89 | 172.80 | 183.31 |
| EBIT | 82.54 | 91.54 | 100.89 | 88.56 | 110.34 | 109.93 | 116.62 | 123.72 | 131.25 | 139.23 |
| Tax Rate | 15.02% | 25.87% | 23.55% | 26.40% | 28.93% | 23.95% | 23.95% | 23.95% | 23.95% | 23.95% |
| EBIAT | 70.14 | 67.86 | 77.13 | 65.18 | 78.42 | 83.60 | 88.69 | 94.08 | 99.81 | 105.88 |
| Depreciation | 28.58 | 27.21 | 28.18 | 33.75 | 31.97 | 34.81 | 36.92 | 39.17 | 41.55 | 44.08 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -67.05 | -46.67 | 42.64 | -18.18 | -37.01 | -25.76 | -27.33 | -28.99 | -30.76 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 27.52 | 31.98 | -43.21 | 14.29 | 12.13 | 7.17 | 7.60 | 8.07 | 8.56 |
| Capital Expenditure | -14.51 | -21.81 | -26.90 | -17.68 | -19.93 | -23.35 | -24.77 | -26.28 | -27.88 | -29.58 |
| UFCF | 84.21 | 33.73 | 63.72 | 80.67 | 86.56 | 70.17 | 82.24 | 87.24 | 92.55 | 98.18 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 66.93 | 74.81 | 75.69 | 76.58 | 77.48 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 371.49 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.85 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 100.15 |
| Terminal Value | 3,513.98 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,773.05 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 3,144.54 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 640.06 |
| Equity Value | 2,504.48 |
| Shares Outstanding | 19.12 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 130.96 |