Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Imperial Oil Limited (IMO)

$50.67

+0.75 (+1.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 167.49 | 50.67 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 33,29732,19420,54835,58059,67074,792.6293,747.89117,507.14147,287.87184,616.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,6903,7379295,31411,3819,606.7912,041.5115,093.2818,918.4823,713.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,1812,139-2,3442,298.706,324.143,268.324,096.645,134.886,436.258,067.44
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,5091,5983,2733,015.305,056.866,338.467,944.879,958.4012,482.2315,645.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 9881,7187712,1532,701.113,385.674,243.735,319.256,667.348,357.10
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,5292,6991,9193,8695,398.956,767.248,482.3110,632.0513,326.6216,704.08
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,8381,9121,8341,7913,791.764,752.735,957.257,467.049,359.4711,731.52
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,6884,2603,1535,1848,088.7010,138.6812,708.2115,928.9419,965.9425,026.06
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,491-1,636-868-1,108-1,526-2,910.23-3,647.79-4,572.28-5,731.07-7,183.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 50.67
Beta 1.940
Diluted Shares Outstanding 735.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.61
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.78%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.813
Total Debt 5,323
Total Equity 37,257.65
Total Capital 42,580.65
Debt Weighting 12.50
Equity Weighting 87.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 33,29732,19420,54835,58059,67074,792.6293,747.89117,507.14147,287.87184,616.16
EBITDA 4,6903,7379295,31411,3819,606.7912,041.5115,093.2818,918.4823,713.14
EBIT 3,1812,139-2,3442,298.706,324.143,268.324,096.645,134.886,436.258,067.44
Tax Rate 24.70%-7.53%22.88%24.49%22.61%17.43%17.43%17.43%17.43%17.43%
EBIAT 2,395.332,300-1,807.641,735.754,894.472,698.653,382.594,239.875,314.416,661.28
Depreciation 1,5091,5983,2733,015.305,056.866,338.467,944.879,958.4012,482.2315,645.70
Accounts Receivable --170780-1,950-1,529.95-1,368.30-1,715.07-2,149.74-2,694.56-3,377.47
Inventories --747843-2,000.76-960.97-1,204.52-1,509.79-1,892.43-2,372.04
Accounts Payable -572-1,1072,0312,904.702,049.982,569.523,220.744,036.995,060.12
Capital Expenditure -1,491-1,636-868-1,108-1,526-2,910.23-3,647.79-4,572.28-5,731.07-7,183.54
UFCF 2,413.332,590348.363,767.057,799.335,847.607,329.609,187.1911,515.5714,434.05
WACC
PV UFCF 5,253.435,915.786,661.637,501.518,447.29
SUM PV UFCF 33,779.63

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) 14,722.73
Terminal Value 158,138.90
Present Value of Terminal Value 92,548.16

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 126,327.80
Net Debt 3,170
Equity Value 123,157.80
Shares Outstanding 735.30
Equity Value Per Share 167.49