Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

InterGlobe Aviation Limited (INDIGO.NS)

3233 ₹

+29.90 (+0.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 2,752.87 | 3233 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 281,652.20353,688.59142,098.96256,539.68544,464.53760,239.401,061,527.271,482,217.512,069,630.042,889,838.02
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 7,034.1449,305.216,528.219,632.3079,303.1559,833.7783,546.28116,656.22162,887.85227,441.38
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -561.669,565.92-40,466.25-41,053.7028,273.46-55,926.68-78,090.80-109,038.69-152,251.44-212,589.69
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 7,595.8039,739.2946,994.4650,68651,029.69115,760.45161,637.08225,694.92315,139.30440,031.07
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 84,677.25109,072.6291,278.7579,457.91244,374.81305,609.53426,724.59595,838.35831,9731,161,689.37
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 15,232.0212,950.05105,514.08109,418.955,199.04192,994.70269,479.77376,276.37525,397.17733,615.52
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,114.412,861.283,164.184,080.635,910.679,826.3713,720.6219,158.1926,750.7137,352.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 14,552.4215,675.8215,513.2931,518.2032,089.8958,836.2782,153.47114,711.44160,172.33223,649.68
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -17,115.62-10,883.06-4,368.87-3,468.81-5,698.04-22,240.20-31,054.13-43,361.09-60,545.37-84,539.90
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3,233
Beta 0.570
Diluted Shares Outstanding 385.61
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.46
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.98%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.046
Total Debt 448,542.13
Total Equity 1,246,678.23
Total Capital 1,695,220.36
Debt Weighting 26.46
Equity Weighting 73.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 281,652.20353,688.59142,098.96256,539.68544,464.53760,239.401,061,527.271,482,217.512,069,630.042,889,838.02
EBITDA 7,034.1449,305.216,528.219,632.3079,303.1559,833.7783,546.28116,656.22162,887.85227,441.38
EBIT -561.669,565.92-40,466.25-41,053.7028,273.46-55,926.68-78,090.80-109,038.69-152,251.44-212,589.69
Tax Rate 206.70%8.60%0.20%-0.13%-0.46%42.98%42.98%42.98%42.98%42.98%
EBIAT 599.278,743.12-40,385.27-41,108.1428,403.87-31,888.95-44,526.75-62,172.99-86,812.56-121,216.95
Depreciation 7,595.8039,739.2946,994.4650,68651,029.69115,760.45161,637.08225,694.92315,139.30440,031.07
Accounts Receivable -2,281.97-92,564.03-3,904.87104,219.91-187,795.66-76,485.07-106,796.60-149,120.80-208,218.35
Inventories --746.87-302.90-916.45-1,830.04-3,915.70-3,894.25-5,437.57-7,592.52-10,601.48
Accounts Payable -1,123.40-162.5316,004.91571.6926,746.3823,317.2032,557.9645,460.9063,477.35
Capital Expenditure -17,115.62-10,883.06-4,368.87-3,468.81-5,698.04-22,240.20-31,054.13-43,361.09-60,545.37-84,539.90
UFCF -8,920.5540,257.85-90,789.1417,292.64176,697.09-103,333.6728,994.0840,484.6256,528.9478,931.73
WACC
PV UFCF -96,546.4625,310.3633,019.7343,077.3356,198.41
SUM PV UFCF 61,059.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.03
Free cash flow (t + 1) 81,299.69
Terminal Value 2,017,361.94
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,436,336.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,497,395.86
Net Debt 435,862.44
Equity Value 1,061,533.42
Shares Outstanding 385.61
Equity Value Per Share 2,752.87