Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. (INE.TO)
$15.65
+0.04 (+0.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 400.26 | 576.62 | 557.04 | 613.21 | 747.21 | 882.83 | 1,043.06 | 1,232.37 | 1,456.05 | 1,720.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 306.47 | 393.74 | 499.28 | 432.97 | 272.42 | 603.06 | 712.51 | 841.83 | 994.62 | 1,175.15 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 177.04 | 221.95 | 304.71 | 204.45 | 16.78 | 305.47 | 360.91 | 426.42 | 503.82 | 595.26 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 129.43 | 171.80 | 194.58 | 228.53 | 255.64 | 297.58 | 351.60 | 415.41 | 490.81 | 579.89 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 61.91 | 79.59 | 156.22 | 161.47 | 166.27 | 186.98 | 220.92 | 261.01 | 308.39 | 364.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 87.50 | 103.89 | 92.26 | 199.10 | 119.11 | 185.13 | 218.73 | 258.43 | 305.33 | 360.75 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 63.49 | 106.33 | 90.81 | 84.80 | 71.89 | 130.75 | 154.48 | 182.52 | 215.65 | 254.79 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -135.66 | -185.79 | -847.73 | -518.60 | -250.62 | -593.98 | -701.79 | -829.17 | -979.66 | -1,157.47 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 15.65 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.372 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 180.86 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 9.37 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.19% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.274 |
| Total Debt | 5,081.54 |
| Total Equity | 2,830.41 |
| Total Capital | 7,911.95 |
| Debt Weighting | 64.23 |
| Equity Weighting | 35.77 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 400.26 | 576.62 | 557.04 | 613.21 | 747.21 | 882.83 | 1,043.06 | 1,232.37 | 1,456.05 | 1,720.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 306.47 | 393.74 | 499.28 | 432.97 | 272.42 | 603.06 | 712.51 | 841.83 | 994.62 | 1,175.15 |
| EBIT | 177.04 | 221.95 | 304.71 | 204.45 | 16.78 | 305.47 | 360.91 | 426.42 | 503.82 | 595.26 |
| Tax Rate | -11.29% | -15.06% | 142.60% | -219.44% | 9.37% | -18.77% | -18.77% | -18.77% | -18.77% | -18.77% |
| EBIAT | 197.02 | 255.38 | -129.80 | 653.09 | 15.21 | 362.80 | 428.64 | 506.44 | 598.36 | 706.96 |
| Depreciation | 129.43 | 171.80 | 194.58 | 228.53 | 255.64 | 297.58 | 351.60 | 415.41 | 490.81 | 579.89 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -16.39 | 11.62 | -106.83 | 79.99 | -66.02 | -33.60 | -39.70 | -46.90 | -55.42 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 42.84 | -15.52 | -6.01 | -12.91 | 58.86 | 23.73 | 28.04 | 33.13 | 39.14 |
| Capital Expenditure | -135.66 | -185.79 | -847.73 | -518.60 | -250.62 | -593.98 | -701.79 | -829.17 | -979.66 | -1,157.47 |
| UFCF | 190.80 | 267.84 | -786.86 | 250.16 | 87.31 | 59.24 | 68.58 | 81.02 | 95.73 | 113.11 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 56.65 | 62.70 | 70.84 | 80.03 | 90.42 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 360.63 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.58 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 115.37 |
| Terminal Value | 4,471.62 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,574.55 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 3,935.18 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 4,915.28 |
| Equity Value | -980.10 |
| Shares Outstanding | 180.86 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -5.42 |