Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. (INE.TO)

$15.65

+0.04 (+0.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -5.42 | 15.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 400.26576.62557.04613.21747.21882.831,043.061,232.371,456.051,720.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 306.47393.74499.28432.97272.42603.06712.51841.83994.621,175.15
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 177.04221.95304.71204.4516.78305.47360.91426.42503.82595.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 129.43171.80194.58228.53255.64297.58351.60415.41490.81579.89
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 61.9179.59156.22161.47166.27186.98220.92261.01308.39364.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 87.50103.8992.26199.10119.11185.13218.73258.43305.33360.75
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 63.49106.3390.8184.8071.89130.75154.48182.52215.65254.79
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -135.66-185.79-847.73-518.60-250.62-593.98-701.79-829.17-979.66-1,157.47
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 15.65
Beta 0.372
Diluted Shares Outstanding 180.86
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 9.37
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.19%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.274
Total Debt 5,081.54
Total Equity 2,830.41
Total Capital 7,911.95
Debt Weighting 64.23
Equity Weighting 35.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 400.26576.62557.04613.21747.21882.831,043.061,232.371,456.051,720.32
EBITDA 306.47393.74499.28432.97272.42603.06712.51841.83994.621,175.15
EBIT 177.04221.95304.71204.4516.78305.47360.91426.42503.82595.26
Tax Rate -11.29%-15.06%142.60%-219.44%9.37%-18.77%-18.77%-18.77%-18.77%-18.77%
EBIAT 197.02255.38-129.80653.0915.21362.80428.64506.44598.36706.96
Depreciation 129.43171.80194.58228.53255.64297.58351.60415.41490.81579.89
Accounts Receivable --16.3911.62-106.8379.99-66.02-33.60-39.70-46.90-55.42
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -42.84-15.52-6.01-12.9158.8623.7328.0433.1339.14
Capital Expenditure -135.66-185.79-847.73-518.60-250.62-593.98-701.79-829.17-979.66-1,157.47
UFCF 190.80267.84-786.86250.1687.3159.2468.5881.0295.73113.11
WACC
PV UFCF 56.6562.7070.8480.0390.42
SUM PV UFCF 360.63

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.58
Free cash flow (t + 1) 115.37
Terminal Value 4,471.62
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,574.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,935.18
Net Debt 4,915.28
Equity Value -980.10
Shares Outstanding 180.86
Equity Value Per Share -5.42