Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Inspired Entertainment, Inc. (INSE)
$13.88
+0.05 (+0.36%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 141.38 | 153.40 | 199.80 | 208.90 | 285.40 | 342.43 | 410.85 | 492.94 | 591.43 | 709.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 45.02 | 36.60 | 59.90 | 57.90 | 93 | 99.98 | 119.95 | 143.92 | 172.68 | 207.18 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 3.19 | -6.40 | 4 | 7.60 | 53 | 15.27 | 18.32 | 21.98 | 26.37 | 31.64 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 41.83 | 43 | 55.90 | 50.30 | 40 | 84.71 | 101.64 | 121.94 | 146.31 | 175.54 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 22.45 | 29.10 | 47.10 | 47.80 | 25 | 61.68 | 74.01 | 88.79 | 106.53 | 127.82 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 25.07 | 39.50 | 35.70 | 49.40 | 58.70 | 72.30 | 86.74 | 104.08 | 124.87 | 149.82 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 5.21 | 18.80 | 17.60 | 16.90 | 31 | 29.93 | 35.91 | 43.08 | 51.69 | 62.02 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 14.40 | 22.20 | 17.90 | 20.80 | 25.70 | 36.01 | 43.20 | 51.84 | 62.19 | 74.62 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -42.93 | -27.50 | -29.90 | -25.40 | -39.80 | -61.20 | -73.43 | -88.10 | -105.70 | -126.82 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 13.88 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.627 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 29.04 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 12.55 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 8.33% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.488 |
| Total Debt | 288.50 |
| Total Equity | 403.02 |
| Total Capital | 691.52 |
| Debt Weighting | 41.72 |
| Equity Weighting | 58.28 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 141.38 | 153.40 | 199.80 | 208.90 | 285.40 | 342.43 | 410.85 | 492.94 | 591.43 | 709.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 45.02 | 36.60 | 59.90 | 57.90 | 93 | 99.98 | 119.95 | 143.92 | 172.68 | 207.18 |
| EBIT | 3.19 | -6.40 | 4 | 7.60 | 53 | 15.27 | 18.32 | 21.98 | 26.37 | 31.64 |
| Tax Rate | -0.89% | -0.27% | -1.39% | 4.18% | 12.55% | 2.84% | 2.84% | 2.84% | 2.84% | 2.84% |
| EBIAT | 3.22 | -6.42 | 4.06 | 7.28 | 46.35 | 14.83 | 17.80 | 21.36 | 25.62 | 30.74 |
| Depreciation | 41.83 | 43 | 55.90 | 50.30 | 40 | 84.71 | 101.64 | 121.94 | 146.31 | 175.54 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -14.43 | 3.80 | -13.70 | -9.30 | -13.60 | -14.45 | -17.33 | -20.80 | -24.95 |
| Inventories | - | -13.59 | 1.20 | 0.70 | -14.10 | 1.07 | -5.98 | -7.17 | -8.61 | -10.33 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 7.80 | -4.30 | 2.90 | 4.90 | 10.31 | 7.19 | 8.63 | 10.36 | 12.43 |
| Capital Expenditure | -42.93 | -27.50 | -29.90 | -25.40 | -39.80 | -61.20 | -73.43 | -88.10 | -105.70 | -126.82 |
| UFCF | 2.12 | -11.13 | 30.76 | 22.08 | 28.05 | 36.13 | 32.77 | 39.32 | 47.18 | 56.61 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 32.79 | 27 | 29.41 | 32.03 | 34.88 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 156.11 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.17 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 57.74 |
| Terminal Value | 706.74 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 435.45 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 591.56 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 263.50 |
| Equity Value | 328.06 |
| Shares Outstanding | 29.04 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 11.30 |