Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Innospec Inc. (IOSP)
$107.07
+2.00 (+1.90%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,476.90 | 1,513.30 | 1,193.10 | 1,483.40 | 1,963.70 | 2,150.33 | 2,354.69 | 2,578.48 | 2,823.53 | 3,091.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 195.20 | 202.80 | 128.60 | 176.80 | 225.80 | 261.54 | 286.40 | 313.61 | 343.42 | 376.06 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 145.60 | 155.20 | 82.60 | 134.10 | 185.70 | 195.83 | 214.44 | 234.82 | 257.13 | 281.57 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 49.60 | 47.60 | 46 | 42.70 | 40.10 | 65.71 | 71.96 | 78.80 | 86.29 | 94.49 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 123.10 | 75.70 | 105.30 | 141.80 | 147.10 | 168.64 | 184.67 | 202.22 | 221.44 | 242.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 279.70 | 292 | 221.40 | 284.50 | 334.60 | 400 | 438.01 | 479.64 | 525.23 | 575.14 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 248 | 244.60 | 220 | 277.60 | 373.10 | 383.22 | 419.64 | 459.53 | 503.20 | 551.02 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 126.80 | 122 | 98.70 | 148.70 | 165.30 | 186.49 | 204.21 | 223.62 | 244.87 | 268.14 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -30.10 | -31 | -29.70 | -39.10 | -42.30 | -48.88 | -53.53 | -58.61 | -64.18 | -70.28 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 107.07 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.156 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 24.98 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 27.95 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.99% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.612 |
| Total Debt | 45.30 |
| Total Equity | 2,674.82 |
| Total Capital | 2,720.12 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.67 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.33 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,476.90 | 1,513.30 | 1,193.10 | 1,483.40 | 1,963.70 | 2,150.33 | 2,354.69 | 2,578.48 | 2,823.53 | 3,091.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 195.20 | 202.80 | 128.60 | 176.80 | 225.80 | 261.54 | 286.40 | 313.61 | 343.42 | 376.06 |
| EBIT | 145.60 | 155.20 | 82.60 | 134.10 | 185.70 | 195.83 | 214.44 | 234.82 | 257.13 | 281.57 |
| Tax Rate | 35.41% | 25.40% | 27.71% | 30.73% | 27.95% | 29.44% | 29.44% | 29.44% | 29.44% | 29.44% |
| EBIAT | 94.04 | 115.78 | 59.71 | 92.89 | 133.79 | 138.18 | 151.31 | 165.69 | 181.43 | 198.68 |
| Depreciation | 49.60 | 47.60 | 46 | 42.70 | 40.10 | 65.71 | 71.96 | 78.80 | 86.29 | 94.49 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -12.30 | 70.60 | -63.10 | -50.10 | -65.40 | -38.02 | -41.63 | -45.58 | -49.92 |
| Inventories | - | 3.40 | 24.60 | -57.60 | -95.50 | -10.12 | -36.42 | -39.88 | -43.67 | -47.82 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -4.80 | -23.30 | 50 | 16.60 | 21.19 | 17.72 | 19.41 | 21.25 | 23.27 |
| Capital Expenditure | -30.10 | -31 | -29.70 | -39.10 | -42.30 | -48.88 | -53.53 | -58.61 | -64.18 | -70.28 |
| UFCF | 113.54 | 118.68 | 147.91 | 25.79 | 2.59 | 100.67 | 113.03 | 123.77 | 135.53 | 148.41 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 91.94 | 94.27 | 94.27 | 94.27 | 94.28 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 469.02 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.50 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 151.38 |
| Terminal Value | 2,018.42 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,282.16 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,751.18 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -101.80 |
| Equity Value | 1,852.98 |
| Shares Outstanding | 24.98 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 74.17 |