Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
International Paper Company (IP)
$38.11
+0.88 (+2.36%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 21,743 | 23,306 | 22,376 | 20,580 | 19,363 | 18,843.01 | 18,336.99 | 17,844.56 | 17,365.35 | 16,899.01 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 3,240 | 4,519 | 3,871 | 2,614 | 3,580 | 3,119.71 | 3,035.93 | 2,954.40 | 2,875.06 | 2,797.85 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,817 | 3,191 | 2,565 | 1,327 | 2,370 | 1,967.19 | 1,914.36 | 1,862.95 | 1,812.93 | 1,764.24 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,423 | 1,328 | 1,306 | 1,287 | 1,210 | 1,152.52 | 1,121.56 | 1,091.45 | 1,062.14 | 1,033.61 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,018 | 589 | 511 | 5,445 | 1,540 | 1,654.57 | 1,610.13 | 1,566.89 | 1,524.82 | 1,483.87 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 3,287 | 3,916 | 3,673 | 3,419 | 3,610 | 3,150.25 | 3,065.65 | 2,983.32 | 2,903.21 | 2,825.24 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 2,313 | 2,241 | 2,208 | 2,050 | 1,814 | 1,863.60 | 1,813.55 | 1,764.85 | 1,717.46 | 1,671.34 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 2,458 | 2,413 | 2,423 | 2,320 | 2,606 | 2,156.34 | 2,098.44 | 2,042.08 | 1,987.24 | 1,933.88 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,391 | -1,572 | -1,276 | -751 | -549 | -954.57 | -928.93 | -903.99 | -879.71 | -856.09 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 38.11 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.975 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 392.40 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -75.38 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.43% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.118 |
Total Debt | 7,914 |
Total Equity | 14,954.36 |
Total Capital | 22,868.36 |
Debt Weighting | 34.61 |
Equity Weighting | 65.39 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 21,743 | 23,306 | 22,376 | 20,580 | 19,363 | 18,843.01 | 18,336.99 | 17,844.56 | 17,365.35 | 16,899.01 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 3,240 | 4,519 | 3,871 | 2,614 | 3,580 | 3,119.71 | 3,035.93 | 2,954.40 | 2,875.06 | 2,797.85 |
EBIT | 1,817 | 3,191 | 2,565 | 1,327 | 2,370 | 1,967.19 | 1,914.36 | 1,862.95 | 1,812.93 | 1,764.24 |
Tax Rate | -152.83% | -12.97% | 23.63% | 25.85% | -75.38% | -38.34% | -38.34% | -38.34% | -38.34% | -38.34% |
EBIAT | 4,593.92 | 3,604.88 | 1,958.93 | 984.02 | 4,156.40 | 2,721.42 | 2,648.34 | 2,577.22 | 2,508.01 | 2,440.65 |
Depreciation | 1,423 | 1,328 | 1,306 | 1,287 | 1,210 | 1,152.52 | 1,121.56 | 1,091.45 | 1,062.14 | 1,033.61 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -629 | 243 | 254 | -191 | 459.75 | 84.60 | 82.33 | 80.12 | 77.96 |
Inventories | - | 72 | 33 | 158 | 236 | -49.60 | 50.05 | 48.70 | 47.39 | 46.12 |
Accounts Payable | - | -45 | 10 | -103 | 286 | -449.66 | -57.91 | -56.35 | -54.84 | -53.37 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,391 | -1,572 | -1,276 | -751 | -549 | -954.57 | -928.93 | -903.99 | -879.71 | -856.09 |
UFCF | 4,625.92 | 2,758.88 | 2,274.93 | 1,829.02 | 5,148.40 | 2,879.86 | 2,917.70 | 2,839.35 | 2,763.10 | 2,688.90 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 2,686.69 | 2,539.41 | 2,305.45 | 2,093.05 | 1,900.22 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 11,524.81 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.19 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,742.68 |
Terminal Value | 52,845.38 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 37,345.28 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 48,870.09 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 6,619 |
Equity Value | 42,251.09 |
Shares Outstanding | 392.40 |
Equity Value Per Share | 107.67 |