Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
International Paper Company (IP)
$34.145
+0.03 (+0.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 23,306 | 22,376 | 20,580 | 19,363 | 21,161 | 20,703.68 | 20,256.24 | 19,818.47 | 19,390.17 | 18,971.12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 3,796 | 3,695 | 3,006 | 2,876 | 2,976 | 3,160.37 | 3,092.07 | 3,025.25 | 2,959.87 | 2,895.90 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 2,468 | 2,389 | 1,719 | 1,666 | 1,936 | 1,961.54 | 1,919.15 | 1,877.68 | 1,837.10 | 1,797.39 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,328 | 1,306 | 1,287 | 1,210 | 1,040 | 1,198.83 | 1,172.92 | 1,147.57 | 1,122.77 | 1,098.51 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 589 | 511 | 5,445 | 1,540 | 804 | 1,781.40 | 1,742.90 | 1,705.24 | 1,668.39 | 1,632.33 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 3,916 | 3,673 | 3,419 | 3,610 | 3,765 | 3,572.07 | 3,494.88 | 3,419.35 | 3,345.45 | 3,273.15 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 2,241 | 2,208 | 2,050 | 1,814 | 1,942 | 1,987.14 | 1,944.20 | 1,902.18 | 1,861.07 | 1,820.85 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 2,413 | 2,423 | 2,320 | 2,606 | 2,708 | 2,431.07 | 2,378.53 | 2,327.12 | 2,276.83 | 2,227.63 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,572 | -1,276 | -751 | -549 | -931 | -966.10 | -945.22 | -924.80 | -904.81 | -885.26 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 34.145 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.032 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 392.40 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.46 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.51% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.157 |
Total Debt | 5,862 |
Total Equity | 13,398.50 |
Total Capital | 19,260.50 |
Debt Weighting | 30.44 |
Equity Weighting | 69.56 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 23,306 | 22,376 | 20,580 | 19,363 | 21,161 | 20,703.68 | 20,256.24 | 19,818.47 | 19,390.17 | 18,971.12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 3,796 | 3,695 | 3,006 | 2,876 | 2,976 | 3,160.37 | 3,092.07 | 3,025.25 | 2,959.87 | 2,895.90 |
EBIT | 2,468 | 2,389 | 1,719 | 1,666 | 1,936 | 1,961.54 | 1,919.15 | 1,877.68 | 1,837.10 | 1,797.39 |
Tax Rate | -12.97% | 39.53% | 25.85% | 18.82% | 0.46% | 14.34% | 14.34% | 14.34% | 14.34% | 14.34% |
EBIAT | 2,788.11 | 1,444.72 | 1,274.70 | 1,352.48 | 1,927.03 | 1,680.32 | 1,644.01 | 1,608.48 | 1,573.72 | 1,539.71 |
Depreciation | 1,328 | 1,306 | 1,287 | 1,210 | 1,040 | 1,198.83 | 1,172.92 | 1,147.57 | 1,122.77 | 1,098.51 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 243 | 254 | -191 | -155 | 192.93 | 77.20 | 75.53 | 73.90 | 72.30 |
Inventories | - | 33 | 158 | 236 | -128 | -45.14 | 42.95 | 42.02 | 41.11 | 40.22 |
Accounts Payable | - | 10 | -103 | 286 | 102 | -276.93 | -52.54 | -51.40 | -50.29 | -49.21 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,572 | -1,276 | -751 | -549 | -931 | -966.10 | -945.22 | -924.80 | -904.81 | -885.26 |
UFCF | 2,544.11 | 1,760.72 | 2,119.70 | 2,344.48 | 1,855.03 | 1,783.90 | 1,939.31 | 1,897.40 | 1,856.39 | 1,816.27 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 1,651 | 1,661.11 | 1,504.12 | 1,361.98 | 1,233.27 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 7,411.47 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.05 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,852.60 |
Terminal Value | 30,621.44 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 20,792.26 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 28,203.73 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 5,058 |
Equity Value | 23,145.73 |
Shares Outstanding | 392.40 |
Equity Value Per Share | 58.99 |