Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Jaguar Health, Inc. (JAGX)
$0.3082
+0.01 (+4.83%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 4.36 | 4.42 | 5.78 | 9.39 | 4.34 | 4.78 | 5.26 | 5.80 | 6.39 | 7.04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -33.36 | -28.20 | -30.87 | -29.29 | -61.02 | -34.94 | -38.50 | -42.42 | -46.74 | -51.50 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -33.94 | -29.52 | -32.80 | -31.02 | -62.05 | -36.08 | -39.75 | -43.80 | -48.26 | -53.17 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.58 | 1.32 | 1.93 | 1.73 | 1.03 | 1.14 | 1.25 | 1.38 | 1.52 | 1.67 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 0.52 | 2.57 | 3.50 | 8.09 | 17.05 | 5.83 | 6.42 | 7.08 | 7.80 | 8.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 0.47 | 1 | 1.69 | 2.10 | 1.71 | 1.19 | 1.31 | 1.44 | 1.59 | 1.75 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 2.07 | 3.34 | 2.13 | 2.78 | 4.90 | 2.89 | 3.19 | 3.51 | 3.87 | 4.26 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 7.35 | 5.41 | 5.35 | 4.76 | 4.93 | 5.24 | 5.77 | 6.36 | 7.01 | 7.72 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.3,082 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.814 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 13.41 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -193.90% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.453 |
| Total Debt | 4.34 |
| Total Equity | 4.13 |
| Total Capital | 8.47 |
| Debt Weighting | 51.25 |
| Equity Weighting | 48.75 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 4.36 | 4.42 | 5.78 | 9.39 | 4.34 | 4.78 | 5.26 | 5.80 | 6.39 | 7.04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -33.36 | -28.20 | -30.87 | -29.29 | -61.02 | -34.94 | -38.50 | -42.42 | -46.74 | -51.50 |
| EBIT | -33.94 | -29.52 | -32.80 | -31.02 | -62.05 | -36.08 | -39.75 | -43.80 | -48.26 | -53.17 |
| Tax Rate | 37.50% | 0.00% | -0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 7.49% | 7.49% | 7.49% | 7.49% | 7.49% |
| EBIAT | -21.21 | -29.52 | -32.81 | -31.02 | -62.05 | -33.37 | -36.77 | -40.51 | -44.64 | -49.19 |
| Depreciation | 0.58 | 1.32 | 1.93 | 1.73 | 1.03 | 1.14 | 1.25 | 1.38 | 1.52 | 1.67 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.53 | -0.69 | -0.40 | 0.39 | 0.52 | -0.12 | -0.13 | -0.15 | -0.16 |
| Inventories | - | -1.27 | 1.21 | -0.65 | -2.12 | 2.01 | -0.29 | -0.32 | -0.36 | -0.39 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -1.94 | -0.06 | -0.59 | 0.17 | 0.31 | 0.53 | 0.59 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| UFCF | -20.63 | -31.95 | -30.43 | -30.95 | -62.59 | -29.41 | -35.41 | -39.02 | -42.99 | -47.37 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -472.80 | -9,152.48 | -162,129.33 | -2,871,999.13 | -50,875,304.61 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -53,919,058.34 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | -93.78 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -48.31 |
| Terminal Value | 50.44 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 54,179,171.75 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 260,113.40 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -12.71 |
| Equity Value | 260,126.11 |
| Shares Outstanding | 13.41 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 19,403.55 |