Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
J. Alexander's Holdings, Inc. (JAX)
- (-%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 219.58 | 233.26 | 242.26 | 247.27 | 183.37 | 177.10 | 171.04 | 165.19 | 159.54 | 154.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 18.88 | 17.49 | 14.28 | 20.95 | -17.81 | 7.35 | 7.10 | 6.86 | 6.62 | 6.40 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 9.77 | 6.80 | 3.13 | 8.83 | -30.10 | -1.48 | -1.43 | -1.38 | -1.34 | -1.29 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 9.11 | 10.69 | 11.16 | 12.12 | 12.29 | 8.83 | 8.53 | 8.24 | 7.96 | 7.69 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 6.63 | 10.71 | 8.78 | 8.80 | 12.36 | 7.63 | 7.37 | 7.12 | 6.87 | 6.64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1.56 | 2.70 | 1.75 | 2.03 | 8.76 | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.70 | 2.61 | 2.52 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 2.54 | 2.80 | 3.13 | 3.09 | 2.54 | 2.23 | 2.15 | 2.08 | 2.01 | 1.94 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 6.93 | 6.59 | 6.13 | 6.35 | 5.15 | 4.92 | 4.75 | 4.59 | 4.43 | 4.28 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -20.78 | -13.31 | -18.11 | -11.94 | -7.38 | -11.16 | -10.77 | -10.41 | -10.05 | -9.71 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ - |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.540 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 14.72 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 26.85 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.04% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.427 |
| Total Debt | 19.84 |
| Total Equity | - |
| Total Capital | 19.84 |
| Debt Weighting | 100.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 0.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 219.58 | 233.26 | 242.26 | 247.27 | 183.37 | 177.10 | 171.04 | 165.19 | 159.54 | 154.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 18.88 | 17.49 | 14.28 | 20.95 | -17.81 | 7.35 | 7.10 | 6.86 | 6.62 | 6.40 |
| EBIT | 9.77 | 6.80 | 3.13 | 8.83 | -30.10 | -1.48 | -1.43 | -1.38 | -1.34 | -1.29 |
| Tax Rate | 26.17% | -14.13% | -39.73% | -3.91% | 26.85% | -0.95% | -0.95% | -0.95% | -0.95% | -0.95% |
| EBIAT | 7.21 | 7.76 | 4.37 | 9.17 | -22.02 | -1.50 | -1.45 | -1.40 | -1.35 | -1.30 |
| Depreciation | 9.11 | 10.69 | 11.16 | 12.12 | 12.29 | 8.83 | 8.53 | 8.24 | 7.96 | 7.69 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.14 | 0.95 | -0.29 | -6.72 | 5.86 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Inventories | - | -0.27 | -0.33 | 0.04 | 0.56 | 0.31 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.34 | -0.45 | 0.22 | -1.21 | -0.23 | -0.17 | -0.16 | -0.16 | -0.15 |
| Capital Expenditure | -20.78 | -13.31 | -18.11 | -11.94 | -7.38 | -11.16 | -10.77 | -10.41 | -10.05 | -9.71 |
| UFCF | -4.46 | 3.39 | -2.42 | 9.33 | -24.48 | 2.12 | -3.68 | -3.56 | -3.43 | -3.32 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 2.06 | -3.47 | -3.25 | -3.05 | -2.86 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -10.56 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.04 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -3.38 |
| Terminal Value | -325.24 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -280.01 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -290.57 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 7.48 |
| Equity Value | -298.05 |
| Shares Outstanding | 14.72 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -20.25 |