Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT)

$175.46

+5.71 (+3.36%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 21.39 | 175.46 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	8,614.87	9,165.26	9,636.57	12,168.30	14,814	17,019.28	19,552.84	22,463.57	25,807.59	29,649.43
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,117.14	1,234.72	1,240.98	1,603.12	1,977.14	2,241.03	2,574.64	2,957.92	3,398.25	3,904.13
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	681.25	735.58	713.60	1,046.02	1,332.62	1,393.22	1,600.62	1,838.90	2,112.64	2,427.14
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	435.89	499.14	527.38	557.09	644.52	847.81	974.02	1,119.02	1,285.60	1,476.98
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	7.60	35	313.30	355.55	51.93	238.06	273.49	314.21	360.98	414.72
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,326.21	1,242.16	1,310.25	1,723.23	1,858.84	2,357.29	2,708.21	3,111.36	3,574.53	4,106.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	21.98	21.11	23.80	25.03	40.60	41.26	47.40	54.46	62.57	71.88
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	709.74	602.60	587.51	772.74	798.78	1,111.44	1,276.90	1,466.98	1,685.36	1,936.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-995.65	-854.11	-738.55	-947.56	-1,540.80	-1,590.57	-1,827.35	-2,099.38	-2,411.90	-2,770.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 175.46
Beta	1.141
Diluted Shares Outstanding	105.28
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.35
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.07%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.878
Total Debt	1,261.74
Total Equity	18,471.73
Total Capital	19,733.46
Debt Weighting	6.39
Equity Weighting	93.61
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	8,614.87	9,165.26	9,636.57	12,168.30	14,814	17,019.28	19,552.84	22,463.57	25,807.59	29,649.43
EBITDA	1,117.14	1,234.72	1,240.98	1,603.12	1,977.14	2,241.03	2,574.64	2,957.92	3,398.25	3,904.13
EBIT	681.25	735.58	713.60	1,046.02	1,332.62	1,393.22	1,600.62	1,838.90	2,112.64	2,427.14
Tax Rate	23.60%	24.17%	24.02%	23.90%	24.35%	24.01%	24.01%	24.01%	24.01%	24.01%
EBIAT	520.47	557.79	542.19	796	1,008.12	1,058.72	1,216.33	1,397.40	1,605.42	1,844.41
Depreciation	435.89	499.14	527.38	557.09	644.52	847.81	974.02	1,119.02	1,285.60	1,476.98
Accounts Receivable	-	84.05	-68.09	-412.98	-135.60	-498.45	-350.92	-403.16	-463.17	-532.12
Inventories	-	0.87	-2.70	-1.23	-15.57	-0.66	-6.14	-7.06	-8.11	-9.31
Accounts Payable	-	-107.14	-15.09	185.23	26.04	312.67	165.45	190.08	218.38	250.89
Capital Expenditure	-995.65	-854.12	-738.54	-947.56	-1,540.80	-1,590.57	-1,827.35	-2,099.38	-2,411.90	-2,770.94
UFCF	-39.29	180.60	245.13	176.55	-13.29	129.52	171.40	196.91	226.23	259.91
WACC
PV UFCF						119.37	145.57	154.12	163.18	172.77
SUM PV UFCF										755.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.51
Free cash flow (t + 1)	265.10
Terminal Value	4,072.26
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,706.99

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	3,462
Net Debt	1,209.81
Equity Value	2,252.19
Shares Outstanding	105.28
Equity Value Per Share	21.39