Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT)
$175.46
+5.71 (+3.36%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 8,614.87 | 9,165.26 | 9,636.57 | 12,168.30 | 14,814 | 17,019.28 | 19,552.84 | 22,463.57 | 25,807.59 | 29,649.43 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,117.14 | 1,234.72 | 1,240.98 | 1,603.12 | 1,977.14 | 2,241.03 | 2,574.64 | 2,957.92 | 3,398.25 | 3,904.13 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 681.25 | 735.58 | 713.60 | 1,046.02 | 1,332.62 | 1,393.22 | 1,600.62 | 1,838.90 | 2,112.64 | 2,427.14 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 435.89 | 499.14 | 527.38 | 557.09 | 644.52 | 847.81 | 974.02 | 1,119.02 | 1,285.60 | 1,476.98 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 7.60 | 35 | 313.30 | 355.55 | 51.93 | 238.06 | 273.49 | 314.21 | 360.98 | 414.72 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,326.21 | 1,242.16 | 1,310.25 | 1,723.23 | 1,858.84 | 2,357.29 | 2,708.21 | 3,111.36 | 3,574.53 | 4,106.65 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 21.98 | 21.11 | 23.80 | 25.03 | 40.60 | 41.26 | 47.40 | 54.46 | 62.57 | 71.88 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 709.74 | 602.60 | 587.51 | 772.74 | 798.78 | 1,111.44 | 1,276.90 | 1,466.98 | 1,685.36 | 1,936.25 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -995.65 | -854.11 | -738.55 | -947.56 | -1,540.80 | -1,590.57 | -1,827.35 | -2,099.38 | -2,411.90 | -2,770.94 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 175.46 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.141 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 105.28 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.35 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.07% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.878 |
Total Debt | 1,261.74 |
Total Equity | 18,471.73 |
Total Capital | 19,733.46 |
Debt Weighting | 6.39 |
Equity Weighting | 93.61 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 8,614.87 | 9,165.26 | 9,636.57 | 12,168.30 | 14,814 | 17,019.28 | 19,552.84 | 22,463.57 | 25,807.59 | 29,649.43 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,117.14 | 1,234.72 | 1,240.98 | 1,603.12 | 1,977.14 | 2,241.03 | 2,574.64 | 2,957.92 | 3,398.25 | 3,904.13 |
EBIT | 681.25 | 735.58 | 713.60 | 1,046.02 | 1,332.62 | 1,393.22 | 1,600.62 | 1,838.90 | 2,112.64 | 2,427.14 |
Tax Rate | 23.60% | 24.17% | 24.02% | 23.90% | 24.35% | 24.01% | 24.01% | 24.01% | 24.01% | 24.01% |
EBIAT | 520.47 | 557.79 | 542.19 | 796 | 1,008.12 | 1,058.72 | 1,216.33 | 1,397.40 | 1,605.42 | 1,844.41 |
Depreciation | 435.89 | 499.14 | 527.38 | 557.09 | 644.52 | 847.81 | 974.02 | 1,119.02 | 1,285.60 | 1,476.98 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 84.05 | -68.09 | -412.98 | -135.60 | -498.45 | -350.92 | -403.16 | -463.17 | -532.12 |
Inventories | - | 0.87 | -2.70 | -1.23 | -15.57 | -0.66 | -6.14 | -7.06 | -8.11 | -9.31 |
Accounts Payable | - | -107.14 | -15.09 | 185.23 | 26.04 | 312.67 | 165.45 | 190.08 | 218.38 | 250.89 |
Capital Expenditure | -995.65 | -854.12 | -738.54 | -947.56 | -1,540.80 | -1,590.57 | -1,827.35 | -2,099.38 | -2,411.90 | -2,770.94 |
UFCF | -39.29 | 180.60 | 245.13 | 176.55 | -13.29 | 129.52 | 171.40 | 196.91 | 226.23 | 259.91 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 119.37 | 145.57 | 154.12 | 163.18 | 172.77 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 755.01 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.51 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 265.10 |
Terminal Value | 4,072.26 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,706.99 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 3,462 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,209.81 |
Equity Value | 2,252.19 |
Shares Outstanding | 105.28 |
Equity Value Per Share | 21.39 |