Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)

$4.45

-0.07 (-1.55%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -518.07 | 4.45 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	7,658	8,094	2,957	6,037	9,158	11,403.64	14,199.92	17,681.89	22,017.67	27,416.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	736	847	-1,997	-869	-149	-1,447.82	-1,802.85	-2,244.92	-2,795.40	-3,480.86
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	245	322	-2,532	-1,409	-734	-2,504.33	-3,118.42	-3,883.09	-4,835.26	-6,020.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	491	525	535	540	585	1,056.51	1,315.57	1,638.17	2,039.86	2,540.05
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	474	929	1,918	2,018	1,042	2,904.18	3,616.31	4,503.07	5,607.26	6,982.22
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	211	231	98	207	317	360.67	449.11	559.23	696.36	867.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	78	81	71	74	87	150.44	187.33	233.26	290.46	361.69
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	437	401	365	499	532	845.67	1,053.04	1,311.26	1,632.79	2,033.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,114	-1,156	-791	-995	-923	-1,873.38	-2,332.75	-2,904.76	-3,617.04	-4,503.98
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 4.45
Beta	1.676
Diluted Shares Outstanding	323.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	17.16
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.14%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	12.453
Total Debt	4,383
Total Equity	1,440.02
Total Capital	5,823.02
Debt Weighting	75.27
Equity Weighting	24.73
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	7,658	8,094	2,957	6,037	9,158	11,403.64	14,199.92	17,681.89	22,017.67	27,416.63
EBITDA	736	847	-1,997	-869	-149	-1,447.82	-1,802.85	-2,244.92	-2,795.40	-3,480.86
EBIT	245	322	-2,532	-1,409	-734	-2,504.33	-3,118.42	-3,883.09	-4,835.26	-6,020.92
Tax Rate	14.16%	25.91%	28.05%	30.80%	17.16%	23.22%	23.22%	23.22%	23.22%	23.22%
EBIAT	210.32	238.57	-1,821.76	-975.05	-608.03	-1,922.93	-2,394.46	-2,981.60	-3,712.72	-4,623.12
Depreciation	491	525	535	540	585	1,056.51	1,315.57	1,638.17	2,039.86	2,540.05
Accounts Receivable	-	-20	133	-109	-110	-43.67	-88.44	-110.13	-137.13	-170.76
Inventories	-	-3	10	-3	-13	-63.44	-36.89	-45.94	-57.20	-71.22
Accounts Payable	-	-36	-36	134	33	313.67	207.37	258.22	321.53	400.38
Capital Expenditure	-1,114	-1,156	-791	-995	-923	-1,873.38	-2,332.75	-2,904.76	-3,617.04	-4,503.98
UFCF	-412.68	-451.43	-1,970.76	-1,408.05	-1,036.03	-2,533.24	-3,329.59	-4,146.04	-5,162.70	-6,428.64
WACC
PV UFCF						-2,402.54	-2,994.89	-3,536.86	-4,176.91	-4,932.79
SUM PV UFCF										-18,043.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.44
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-6,557.21
Terminal Value	-190,616.71
Present Value of Terminal Value	-146,262.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-164,306.81
Net Debt	3,341
Equity Value	-167,647.81
Shares Outstanding	323.60
Equity Value Per Share	-518.07