Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)
$8.62
+0.47 (+5.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 7,015 | 7,658 | 8,094 | 2,957 | 6,037 | 6,875.42 | 7,830.29 | 8,917.76 | 10,156.27 | 11,566.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,452 | 792 | 1,358 | -1,179 | 469 | 216.10 | 246.12 | 280.30 | 319.23 | 363.56 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 1,006 | 301 | 833 | -1,714 | -71 | -420.47 | -478.86 | -545.36 | -621.11 | -707.37 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 446 | 491 | 525 | 535 | 540 | 636.57 | 724.98 | 825.66 | 940.33 | 1,070.93 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 693 | 887 | 1,328 | 3,053 | 2,842 | 2,587.79 | 2,947.19 | 3,356.50 | 3,822.65 | 4,353.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 245 | 211 | 231 | 98 | 207 | 217.88 | 248.14 | 282.60 | 321.85 | 366.55 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 55 | 78 | 81 | 71 | 74 | 88.42 | 100.70 | 114.69 | 130.61 | 148.75 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 378 | 437 | 401 | 365 | 499 | 504.09 | 574.09 | 653.82 | 744.63 | 848.04 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,202 | -1,114 | -1,156 | -791 | -995 | -1,226.51 | -1,396.85 | -1,590.85 | -1,811.79 | -2,063.41 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.62 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.480 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 319.60 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 30.80 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.77% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.113 |
| Total Debt | 4,802 |
| Total Equity | 2,754.95 |
| Total Capital | 7,556.95 |
| Debt Weighting | 63.54 |
| Equity Weighting | 36.46 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 7,015 | 7,658 | 8,094 | 2,957 | 6,037 | 6,875.42 | 7,830.29 | 8,917.76 | 10,156.27 | 11,566.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,452 | 792 | 1,358 | -1,179 | 469 | 216.10 | 246.12 | 280.30 | 319.23 | 363.56 |
| EBIT | 1,006 | 301 | 833 | -1,714 | -71 | -420.47 | -478.86 | -545.36 | -621.11 | -707.37 |
| Tax Rate | -24.54% | 14.16% | 25.91% | 28.47% | 30.80% | 14.96% | 14.96% | 14.96% | 14.96% | 14.96% |
| EBIAT | 1,252.86 | 258.39 | 617.16 | -1,225.97 | -49.13 | -357.56 | -407.22 | -463.78 | -528.19 | -601.54 |
| Depreciation | 446 | 491 | 525 | 535 | 540 | 636.57 | 724.98 | 825.66 | 940.33 | 1,070.93 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 34 | -20 | 133 | -109 | -10.88 | -30.26 | -34.46 | -39.25 | -44.70 |
| Inventories | - | -23 | -3 | 10 | -3 | -14.42 | -12.28 | -13.99 | -15.93 | -18.14 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 59 | -36 | -36 | 134 | 5.09 | 70.01 | 79.73 | 90.80 | 103.41 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,202 | -1,114 | -1,156 | -791 | -995 | -1,226.51 | -1,396.85 | -1,590.85 | -1,811.79 | -2,063.41 |
| UFCF | 496.86 | -294.61 | -72.84 | -1,374.97 | -482.13 | -967.72 | -1,051.63 | -1,197.68 | -1,364.02 | -1,553.45 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -917.71 | -945.74 | -1,021.41 | -1,103.15 | -1,191.42 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -5,179.42 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.45 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,584.52 |
| Terminal Value | -45,928.13 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -35,224.59 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -40,404.01 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,784 |
| Equity Value | -43,188.01 |
| Shares Outstanding | 319.60 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -135.13 |