Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)
$4.45
-0.07 (-1.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 7,658 | 8,094 | 2,957 | 6,037 | 9,158 | 11,403.64 | 14,199.92 | 17,681.89 | 22,017.67 | 27,416.63 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 736 | 847 | -1,997 | -869 | -149 | -1,447.82 | -1,802.85 | -2,244.92 | -2,795.40 | -3,480.86 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 245 | 322 | -2,532 | -1,409 | -734 | -2,504.33 | -3,118.42 | -3,883.09 | -4,835.26 | -6,020.92 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 491 | 525 | 535 | 540 | 585 | 1,056.51 | 1,315.57 | 1,638.17 | 2,039.86 | 2,540.05 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 474 | 929 | 1,918 | 2,018 | 1,042 | 2,904.18 | 3,616.31 | 4,503.07 | 5,607.26 | 6,982.22 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 211 | 231 | 98 | 207 | 317 | 360.67 | 449.11 | 559.23 | 696.36 | 867.12 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 78 | 81 | 71 | 74 | 87 | 150.44 | 187.33 | 233.26 | 290.46 | 361.69 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 437 | 401 | 365 | 499 | 532 | 845.67 | 1,053.04 | 1,311.26 | 1,632.79 | 2,033.17 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,114 | -1,156 | -791 | -995 | -923 | -1,873.38 | -2,332.75 | -2,904.76 | -3,617.04 | -4,503.98 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 4.45 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.676 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 323.60 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 17.16 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.14% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 12.453 |
Total Debt | 4,383 |
Total Equity | 1,440.02 |
Total Capital | 5,823.02 |
Debt Weighting | 75.27 |
Equity Weighting | 24.73 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 7,658 | 8,094 | 2,957 | 6,037 | 9,158 | 11,403.64 | 14,199.92 | 17,681.89 | 22,017.67 | 27,416.63 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 736 | 847 | -1,997 | -869 | -149 | -1,447.82 | -1,802.85 | -2,244.92 | -2,795.40 | -3,480.86 |
EBIT | 245 | 322 | -2,532 | -1,409 | -734 | -2,504.33 | -3,118.42 | -3,883.09 | -4,835.26 | -6,020.92 |
Tax Rate | 14.16% | 25.91% | 28.05% | 30.80% | 17.16% | 23.22% | 23.22% | 23.22% | 23.22% | 23.22% |
EBIAT | 210.32 | 238.57 | -1,821.76 | -975.05 | -608.03 | -1,922.93 | -2,394.46 | -2,981.60 | -3,712.72 | -4,623.12 |
Depreciation | 491 | 525 | 535 | 540 | 585 | 1,056.51 | 1,315.57 | 1,638.17 | 2,039.86 | 2,540.05 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -20 | 133 | -109 | -110 | -43.67 | -88.44 | -110.13 | -137.13 | -170.76 |
Inventories | - | -3 | 10 | -3 | -13 | -63.44 | -36.89 | -45.94 | -57.20 | -71.22 |
Accounts Payable | - | -36 | -36 | 134 | 33 | 313.67 | 207.37 | 258.22 | 321.53 | 400.38 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,114 | -1,156 | -791 | -995 | -923 | -1,873.38 | -2,332.75 | -2,904.76 | -3,617.04 | -4,503.98 |
UFCF | -412.68 | -451.43 | -1,970.76 | -1,408.05 | -1,036.03 | -2,533.24 | -3,329.59 | -4,146.04 | -5,162.70 | -6,428.64 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -2,402.54 | -2,994.89 | -3,536.86 | -4,176.91 | -4,932.79 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -18,043.98 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.44 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -6,557.21 |
Terminal Value | -190,616.71 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -146,262.83 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -164,306.81 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 3,341 |
Equity Value | -167,647.81 |
Shares Outstanding | 323.60 |
Equity Value Per Share | -518.07 |