Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)

$4.45

-0.07 (-1.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -518.07 | 4.45 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,6588,0942,9576,0379,15811,403.6414,199.9217,681.8922,017.6727,416.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 736847-1,997-869-149-1,447.82-1,802.85-2,244.92-2,795.40-3,480.86
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 245322-2,532-1,409-734-2,504.33-3,118.42-3,883.09-4,835.26-6,020.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4915255355405851,056.511,315.571,638.172,039.862,540.05
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 4749291,9182,0181,0422,904.183,616.314,503.075,607.266,982.22
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 21123198207317360.67449.11559.23696.36867.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7881717487150.44187.33233.26290.46361.69
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 437401365499532845.671,053.041,311.261,632.792,033.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,114-1,156-791-995-923-1,873.38-2,332.75-2,904.76-3,617.04-4,503.98
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.45
Beta 1.676
Diluted Shares Outstanding 323.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.16
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.14%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.453
Total Debt 4,383
Total Equity 1,440.02
Total Capital 5,823.02
Debt Weighting 75.27
Equity Weighting 24.73
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,6588,0942,9576,0379,15811,403.6414,199.9217,681.8922,017.6727,416.63
EBITDA 736847-1,997-869-149-1,447.82-1,802.85-2,244.92-2,795.40-3,480.86
EBIT 245322-2,532-1,409-734-2,504.33-3,118.42-3,883.09-4,835.26-6,020.92
Tax Rate 14.16%25.91%28.05%30.80%17.16%23.22%23.22%23.22%23.22%23.22%
EBIAT 210.32238.57-1,821.76-975.05-608.03-1,922.93-2,394.46-2,981.60-3,712.72-4,623.12
Depreciation 4915255355405851,056.511,315.571,638.172,039.862,540.05
Accounts Receivable --20133-109-110-43.67-88.44-110.13-137.13-170.76
Inventories --310-3-13-63.44-36.89-45.94-57.20-71.22
Accounts Payable --36-3613433313.67207.37258.22321.53400.38
Capital Expenditure -1,114-1,156-791-995-923-1,873.38-2,332.75-2,904.76-3,617.04-4,503.98
UFCF -412.68-451.43-1,970.76-1,408.05-1,036.03-2,533.24-3,329.59-4,146.04-5,162.70-6,428.64
WACC
PV UFCF -2,402.54-2,994.89-3,536.86-4,176.91-4,932.79
SUM PV UFCF -18,043.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.44
Free cash flow (t + 1) -6,557.21
Terminal Value -190,616.71
Present Value of Terminal Value -146,262.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -164,306.81
Net Debt 3,341
Equity Value -167,647.81
Shares Outstanding 323.60
Equity Value Per Share -518.07