Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
JD.com, Inc. (JD)
$28.855
-0.17 (-0.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 73,923.16 | 92,302.16 | 119,328.30 | 152,254.75 | 167,397.76 | 205,765.90 | 252,928.15 | 310,900.15 | 382,159.53 | 469,751.81 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | -239.49 | 1,685.25 | 8,047.25 | -341.49 | 2,335.04 | 3,875.08 | 4,763.26 | 5,855.02 | 7,197.01 | 8,846.59 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -1,129.10 | 752.76 | 7,076.43 | -1,338.61 | 1,177.28 | 2,075.13 | 2,550.76 | 3,135.41 | 3,854.05 | 4,737.41 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 889.61 | 932.49 | 970.83 | 997.12 | 1,157.76 | 1,799.95 | 2,212.50 | 2,719.61 | 3,342.96 | 4,109.18 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 5,807.68 | 9,851.87 | 23,465.91 | 29,652.92 | 35,192.96 | 32,385.21 | 39,808.01 | 48,932.14 | 60,147.55 | 73,933.57 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2,279.40 | 1,667.95 | 2,204.67 | 2,783.94 | 4,274.88 | 4,576.36 | 5,625.27 | 6,914.60 | 8,499.45 | 10,447.56 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 7,044.81 | 9,269.15 | 9,429.20 | 12,096.21 | 12,471.84 | 17,642.01 | 21,685.62 | 26,656.04 | 32,765.69 | 40,275.70 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 12,797.60 | 14,468.54 | 17,090.95 | 22,477.46 | 25,697.12 | 31,862.37 | 39,165.34 | 48,142.17 | 59,176.52 | 72,739.98 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -3,419.12 | -562.36 | -1,227.20 | -2,970.54 | -3,516.80 | -4,244.87 | -5,217.81 | -6,413.76 | -7,883.81 | -9,690.81 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 28.855 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.539 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,553.72 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 25.09 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.43% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.095 |
Total Debt | 10,407.20 |
Total Equity | 44,832.55 |
Total Capital | 55,239.75 |
Debt Weighting | 18.84 |
Equity Weighting | 81.16 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 73,923.16 | 92,302.16 | 119,328.30 | 152,254.75 | 167,397.76 | 205,765.90 | 252,928.15 | 310,900.15 | 382,159.53 | 469,751.81 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | -239.49 | 1,685.25 | 8,047.25 | -341.49 | 2,335.04 | 3,875.08 | 4,763.26 | 5,855.02 | 7,197.01 | 8,846.59 |
EBIT | -1,129.10 | 752.76 | 7,076.43 | -1,338.61 | 1,177.28 | 2,075.13 | 2,550.76 | 3,135.41 | 3,854.05 | 4,737.41 |
Tax Rate | -4.86% | 10.99% | 2.78% | -73.10% | 25.09% | -7.82% | -7.82% | -7.82% | -7.82% | -7.82% |
EBIAT | -1,184.02 | 670.01 | 6,879.58 | -2,317.13 | 881.92 | 2,237.41 | 2,750.24 | 3,380.60 | 4,155.45 | 5,107.89 |
Depreciation | 889.61 | 932.49 | 970.83 | 997.12 | 1,157.76 | 1,799.95 | 2,212.50 | 2,719.61 | 3,342.96 | 4,109.18 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 611.46 | -536.73 | -579.27 | -1,490.94 | -301.47 | -1,048.92 | -1,289.33 | -1,584.85 | -1,948.10 |
Inventories | - | -2,224.33 | -160.06 | -2,667.01 | -375.63 | -5,170.17 | -4,043.61 | -4,970.42 | -6,109.66 | -7,510.01 |
Accounts Payable | - | 1,670.94 | 2,622.41 | 5,386.51 | 3,219.66 | 6,165.25 | 7,302.97 | 8,976.83 | 11,034.35 | 13,563.46 |
Capital Expenditure | -3,419.12 | -562.36 | -1,227.20 | -2,970.54 | -3,516.80 | -4,244.87 | -5,217.81 | -6,413.76 | -7,883.81 | -9,690.81 |
UFCF | -3,713.53 | 1,098.20 | 8,548.82 | -2,150.32 | -124.02 | 486.10 | 1,955.37 | 2,403.54 | 2,954.44 | 3,631.61 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 457.63 | 1,733.07 | 2,005.55 | 2,320.87 | 2,685.76 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 9,202.87 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.22 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,704.24 |
Terminal Value | 87,778.24 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 64,916.54 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 74,119.42 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -2,210.56 |
Equity Value | 76,329.98 |
Shares Outstanding | 1,553.72 |
Equity Value Per Share | 49.13 |