Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

JD.com, Inc. (JD)

$28.0801

-0.26 (-0.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 49.01 | 28.0801 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 73,923.1692,302.16119,328.30152,254.75167,397.76205,765.90252,928.15310,900.15382,159.53469,751.81
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -239.491,685.258,047.25-341.492,335.043,875.084,763.265,855.027,197.018,846.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -1,129.10752.767,076.43-1,338.611,177.282,075.132,550.763,135.413,854.054,737.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 889.61932.49970.83997.121,157.761,799.952,212.502,719.613,342.964,109.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 5,807.689,851.8723,465.9129,652.9235,192.9632,385.2139,808.0148,932.1460,147.5573,933.57
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,279.401,667.952,204.672,783.944,274.884,576.365,625.276,914.608,499.4510,447.56
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7,044.819,269.159,429.2012,096.2112,471.8417,642.0121,685.6226,656.0432,765.6940,275.70
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 12,797.6014,468.5417,090.9522,477.4625,697.1231,862.3739,165.3448,142.1759,176.5272,739.98
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,419.12-562.36-1,227.20-2,970.54-3,516.80-4,244.87-5,217.81-6,413.76-7,883.81-9,690.81
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 28.0,801
Beta 0.559
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,553.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.09
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.23%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.945
Total Debt 10,407.20
Total Equity 43,628.57
Total Capital 54,035.77
Debt Weighting 19.26
Equity Weighting 80.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 73,923.1692,302.16119,328.30152,254.75167,397.76205,765.90252,928.15310,900.15382,159.53469,751.81
EBITDA -239.491,685.258,047.25-341.492,335.043,875.084,763.265,855.027,197.018,846.59
EBIT -1,129.10752.767,076.43-1,338.611,177.282,075.132,550.763,135.413,854.054,737.41
Tax Rate -4.86%10.99%2.78%-73.10%25.09%-7.82%-7.82%-7.82%-7.82%-7.82%
EBIAT -1,184.02670.016,879.58-2,317.13881.922,237.412,750.243,380.604,155.455,107.89
Depreciation 889.61932.49970.83997.121,157.761,799.952,212.502,719.613,342.964,109.18
Accounts Receivable -611.46-536.73-579.27-1,490.94-301.47-1,048.92-1,289.33-1,584.85-1,948.10
Inventories --2,224.33-160.06-2,667.01-375.63-5,170.17-4,043.61-4,970.42-6,109.66-7,510.01
Accounts Payable -1,670.942,622.415,386.513,219.666,165.257,302.978,976.8311,034.3513,563.46
Capital Expenditure -3,419.12-562.36-1,227.20-2,970.54-3,516.80-4,244.87-5,217.81-6,413.76-7,883.81-9,690.81
UFCF -3,713.531,098.208,548.82-2,150.32-124.02486.101,955.372,403.542,954.443,631.61
WACC
PV UFCF 457.591,732.742,004.982,319.992,684.50
SUM PV UFCF 9,199.80

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.23
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,704.24
Terminal Value 87,570.73
Present Value of Terminal Value 64,732.60

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 73,932.40
Net Debt -2,210.56
Equity Value 76,142.96
Shares Outstanding 1,553.72
Equity Value Per Share 49.01