Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

JD.com, Inc. (JD)

$28.855

-0.17 (-0.60%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 49.13 | 28.855 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	73,923.16	92,302.16	119,328.30	152,254.75	167,397.76	205,765.90	252,928.15	310,900.15	382,159.53	469,751.81
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-239.49	1,685.25	8,047.25	-341.49	2,335.04	3,875.08	4,763.26	5,855.02	7,197.01	8,846.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-1,129.10	752.76	7,076.43	-1,338.61	1,177.28	2,075.13	2,550.76	3,135.41	3,854.05	4,737.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	889.61	932.49	970.83	997.12	1,157.76	1,799.95	2,212.50	2,719.61	3,342.96	4,109.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	5,807.68	9,851.87	23,465.91	29,652.92	35,192.96	32,385.21	39,808.01	48,932.14	60,147.55	73,933.57
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	2,279.40	1,667.95	2,204.67	2,783.94	4,274.88	4,576.36	5,625.27	6,914.60	8,499.45	10,447.56
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	7,044.81	9,269.15	9,429.20	12,096.21	12,471.84	17,642.01	21,685.62	26,656.04	32,765.69	40,275.70
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	12,797.60	14,468.54	17,090.95	22,477.46	25,697.12	31,862.37	39,165.34	48,142.17	59,176.52	72,739.98
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-3,419.12	-562.36	-1,227.20	-2,970.54	-3,516.80	-4,244.87	-5,217.81	-6,413.76	-7,883.81	-9,690.81
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 28.855
Beta	0.539
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,553.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.09
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.43%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.095
Total Debt	10,407.20
Total Equity	44,832.55
Total Capital	55,239.75
Debt Weighting	18.84
Equity Weighting	81.16
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	73,923.16	92,302.16	119,328.30	152,254.75	167,397.76	205,765.90	252,928.15	310,900.15	382,159.53	469,751.81
EBITDA	-239.49	1,685.25	8,047.25	-341.49	2,335.04	3,875.08	4,763.26	5,855.02	7,197.01	8,846.59
EBIT	-1,129.10	752.76	7,076.43	-1,338.61	1,177.28	2,075.13	2,550.76	3,135.41	3,854.05	4,737.41
Tax Rate	-4.86%	10.99%	2.78%	-73.10%	25.09%	-7.82%	-7.82%	-7.82%	-7.82%	-7.82%
EBIAT	-1,184.02	670.01	6,879.58	-2,317.13	881.92	2,237.41	2,750.24	3,380.60	4,155.45	5,107.89
Depreciation	889.61	932.49	970.83	997.12	1,157.76	1,799.95	2,212.50	2,719.61	3,342.96	4,109.18
Accounts Receivable	-	611.46	-536.73	-579.27	-1,490.94	-301.47	-1,048.92	-1,289.33	-1,584.85	-1,948.10
Inventories	-	-2,224.33	-160.06	-2,667.01	-375.63	-5,170.17	-4,043.61	-4,970.42	-6,109.66	-7,510.01
Accounts Payable	-	1,670.94	2,622.41	5,386.51	3,219.66	6,165.25	7,302.97	8,976.83	11,034.35	13,563.46
Capital Expenditure	-3,419.12	-562.36	-1,227.20	-2,970.54	-3,516.80	-4,244.87	-5,217.81	-6,413.76	-7,883.81	-9,690.81
UFCF	-3,713.53	1,098.20	8,548.82	-2,150.32	-124.02	486.10	1,955.37	2,403.54	2,954.44	3,631.61
WACC
PV UFCF						457.63	1,733.07	2,005.55	2,320.87	2,685.76
SUM PV UFCF										9,202.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.22
Free cash flow (t + 1)	3,704.24
Terminal Value	87,778.24
Present Value of Terminal Value	64,916.54

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	74,119.42
Net Debt	-2,210.56
Equity Value	76,329.98
Shares Outstanding	1,553.72
Equity Value Per Share	49.13