Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF)

$156.7

-1.24 (-0.79%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 118.81 | 156.7 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,084.221,138.261,186.491,022.041,144.581,165.611,187.031,208.841,231.061,253.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 165.84165.74177.9574.60123.42146.72149.42152.16154.96157.81
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 123.40119.26129.3421.5574.0396.3698.1499.94101.78103.65
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 42.4446.4848.6153.0549.3950.3651.2852.2253.1854.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 150.08132.53243.49246.96291.17222.89226.98231.15235.40239.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 124.55132.34140.94126.59162.94143.64146.28148.96151.70154.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 103.27112.88116.17108.92123.16118.08120.25122.46124.71127
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 72.7369.5972.0373.1396.7980.4481.9283.4284.9586.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -72.18-60.02-57.13-57.82-53.58-63.14-64.30-65.48-66.68-67.91
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 156.7
Beta 0.439
Diluted Shares Outstanding 19.13
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.88
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.953
Total Debt 60.53
Total Equity 2,998.14
Total Capital 3,058.67
Debt Weighting 1.98
Equity Weighting 98.02
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,084.221,138.261,186.491,022.041,144.581,165.611,187.031,208.841,231.061,253.68
EBITDA 165.84165.74177.9574.60123.42146.72149.42152.16154.96157.81
EBIT 123.40119.26129.3421.5574.0396.3698.1499.94101.78103.65
Tax Rate 35.21%12.32%25.09%14.73%24.88%22.45%22.45%22.45%22.45%22.45%
EBIAT 79.95104.5796.8918.3855.6174.7476.1177.5178.9380.38
Depreciation 42.4446.4848.6153.0549.3950.3651.2852.2253.1854.16
Accounts Receivable --7.79-8.6014.35-36.3519.30-2.64-2.69-2.74-2.79
Inventories --9.62-3.287.24-14.245.08-2.17-2.21-2.25-2.29
Accounts Payable --3.142.441.1123.65-16.351.481.511.531.56
Capital Expenditure -72.18-60.02-57.13-57.82-53.58-63.14-64.30-65.48-66.68-67.91
UFCF 50.2170.4878.9336.3124.4969.9959.7660.8661.9863.12
WACC
PV UFCF 66.7454.3552.7851.2649.78
SUM PV UFCF 274.92

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.86
Free cash flow (t + 1) 64.38
Terminal Value 2,251
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,775.52

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,050.45
Net Debt -222.67
Equity Value 2,273.11
Shares Outstanding 19.13
Equity Value Per Share 118.81