Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA)

$6.09

+0.47 (+8.36%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -19.83 | 6.09 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 149.36179.68171.73177.93221.88246.39273.61303.84337.41374.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -186.36-241.97-167.48-206.40-200.46-277.59-308.26-342.31-380.13-422.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -188.83-250.82-177.49-216.05-212.11-288.97-320.89-356.34-395.71-439.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.488.86109.6611.6511.3812.6314.0315.5817.30
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 115.12260.37376.23512.81227.83409.97455.26505.56561.41623.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 20.2425.8317.7623.2138.3033.7937.5241.6746.2751.38
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 10.7911.208.2410.9511.4414.5716.1817.9619.9522.15
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 11.0463.2275.9875.4362.7777.6186.1995.71106.28118.02
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.04-6.46-3.10-7.18-11.16-8.46-9.40-10.44-11.59-12.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.09
Beta 2.719
Diluted Shares Outstanding 99.88
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -2.97
After-tax Cost of Debt 136.23%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.096
Total Debt 13.85
Total Equity 608.25
Total Capital 622.10
Debt Weighting 2.23
Equity Weighting 97.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 149.36179.68171.73177.93221.88246.39273.61303.84337.41374.68
EBITDA -186.36-241.97-167.48-206.40-200.46-277.59-308.26-342.31-380.13-422.12
EBIT -188.83-250.82-177.49-216.05-212.11-288.97-320.89-356.34-395.71-439.42
Tax Rate -0.34%-0.25%-1.65%-0.20%-2.97%-1.08%-1.08%-1.08%-1.08%-1.08%
EBIAT -189.48-251.46-180.42-216.48-218.42-292.10-324.37-360.20-399.99-444.18
Depreciation 2.488.86109.6611.6511.3812.6314.0315.5817.30
Accounts Receivable --5.588.06-5.44-15.094.51-3.73-4.15-4.60-5.11
Inventories --0.412.95-2.70-0.49-3.13-1.61-1.79-1.98-2.20
Accounts Payable -52.1812.76-0.55-12.6614.858.579.5210.5711.74
Capital Expenditure -4.04-6.46-3.10-7.18-11.16-8.46-9.40-10.44-11.59-12.87
UFCF -191.04-202.88-149.74-222.70-246.18-272.96-317.90-353.02-392.01-435.32
WACC
PV UFCF -227.94-221.68-205.57-190.63-176.78
SUM PV UFCF -1,022.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 19.75
Free cash flow (t + 1) -444.03
Terminal Value -2,501.57
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,015.86

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,038.48
Net Debt -58.28
Equity Value -1,980.20
Shares Outstanding 99.88
Equity Value Per Share -19.83