Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
$176.94
-5.18 (-2.84%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 76,450 | 81,581 | 82,059 | 85,053.13 | 88,156.50 | 91,373.11 | 94,707.08 | 98,162.71 | 101,744.42 | 105,456.81 | 109,304.67 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
EBITDA | 24,249 | 25,933 | 24,655 | 26,523.04 | 27,490.80 | 28,493.87 | 29,533.54 | 30,611.14 | 31,728.07 | 32,885.75 | 34,085.66 |
EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
EBIT | 18,607 | 19,004 | 17,646 | 19,601.19 | 20,316.39 | 21,057.68 | 21,826.02 | 22,622.40 | 23,447.84 | 24,303.39 | 25,190.16 |
EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
Depreciation | 5,642 | 6,929 | 7,009 | 6,921.85 | 7,174.41 | 7,436.19 | 7,707.52 | 7,988.74 | 8,280.23 | 8,582.36 | 8,895.51 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 18,296 | 19,687 | 19,287 | 20,290.17 | 21,030.51 | 21,797.86 | 22,593.21 | 23,417.58 | 24,272.03 | 25,157.65 | 26,075.59 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
Account Receivables | 13,490 | 14,098 | 14,481 | 14,905.15 | 15,449 | 16,012.70 | 16,596.96 | 17,202.54 | 17,830.22 | 18,480.80 | 19,155.12 |
Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
Inventories | 8,765 | 8,599 | 9,020 | 9,355.15 | 9,696.49 | 10,050.29 | 10,417 | 10,797.09 | 11,191.05 | 11,599.39 | 12,022.62 |
Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 7,310 | 7,537 | 8,544 | 8,282.05 | 8,584.24 | 8,897.46 | 9,222.10 | 9,558.59 | 9,907.36 | 10,268.86 | 10,643.54 |
Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -3,279 | -3,670 | -3,498 | -3,699.94 | -3,834.94 | -3,974.87 | -4,119.90 | -4,270.23 | -4,426.04 | -4,587.53 | -4,754.92 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 176.94 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.658 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,674 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 8.33 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.50% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.313 |
Total Debt | 33,751 |
Total Equity | 473,137.56 |
Total Capital | 506,888.56 |
Debt Weighting | 6.66 |
Equity Weighting | 93.34 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 76,450 | 81,581 | 82,059 | 85,053.13 | 88,156.50 | 91,373.11 | 94,707.08 | 98,162.71 | 101,744.42 | 105,456.81 | 109,304.67 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 24,249 | 25,933 | 24,655 | 26,523.04 | 27,490.80 | 28,493.87 | 29,533.54 | 30,611.14 | 31,728.07 | 32,885.75 | 34,085.66 |
EBIT | 18,607 | 19,004 | 17,646 | 19,601.19 | 20,316.39 | 21,057.68 | 21,826.02 | 22,622.40 | 23,447.84 | 24,303.39 | 25,190.16 |
Tax Rate | 92.64% | 15.01% | 12.75% | 27.91% | 10.81% | 8.33% | 27.91% | 27.91% | 27.91% | 27.91% | 27.91% |
EBIAT | 1,368.70 | 16,151.13 | 15,396.46 | 14,130.67 | 18,120.59 | 19,302.88 | 15,734.57 | 16,308.69 | 16,903.75 | 17,520.53 | 18,159.81 |
Depreciation | 5,642 | 6,929 | 7,009 | 6,921.85 | 7,174.41 | 7,436.19 | 7,707.52 | 7,988.74 | 8,280.23 | 8,582.36 | 8,895.51 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -608 | -383 | -424.15 | -543.85 | -563.70 | -584.26 | -605.58 | -627.68 | -650.58 | -674.32 |
Inventories | - | 166 | -421 | -335.15 | -341.35 | -353.80 | -366.71 | -380.09 | -393.96 | -408.33 | -423.23 |
Accounts Payable | - | 227 | 1,007 | -261.95 | 302.19 | 313.22 | 324.65 | 336.49 | 348.77 | 361.49 | 374.68 |
Capital Expenditure | -3,279 | -3,670 | -3,498 | -3,699.94 | -3,347 | -3,652 | -4,119.90 | -4,270.23 | -4,426.04 | -4,587.53 | -4,754.92 |
UFCF | 3,731.70 | 19,195.13 | 19,110.46 | 16,331.33 | 20,877.05 | 22,159.91 | 18,695.86 | 19,378.02 | 20,085.08 | 20,817.93 | 21,577.52 |
WACC | |||||||||||
PV UFCF | 17,299.77 | 20,877.05 | 20,919.39 | 16,661.24 | 16,302.44 | 15,951.36 | 15,607.84 | 15,271.71 | |||
SUM PV UFCF | 84,526.41 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.93 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 22,009.08 |
Terminal Value | 560,027.37 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 419,869.56 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 504,395.97 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 19,264 |
Equity Value | 485,131.97 |
Shares Outstanding | 2,674 |
Equity Value Per Share | 181.43 |