Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
$155.52
+0.18 (+0.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 81,581 | 82,059 | 82,584 | 93,775 | 94,943 | 98,746.01 | 102,701.35 | 106,815.13 | 111,093.69 | 115,543.63 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 22,552 | 22,126 | 20,342 | 25,699 | 24,024 | 26,058.61 | 27,102.41 | 28,188.02 | 29,317.11 | 30,491.42 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 15,623 | 15,117 | 13,111 | 18,309 | 17,054 | 17,958.96 | 18,678.32 | 19,426.49 | 20,204.63 | 21,013.94 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 6,929 | 7,009 | 7,231 | 7,390 | 6,970 | 8,099.65 | 8,424.09 | 8,761.52 | 9,112.47 | 9,477.48 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 19,687 | 19,287 | 25,185 | 31,608 | 23,519 | 26,979.35 | 28,060.02 | 29,183.99 | 30,352.97 | 31,568.78 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 14,098 | 14,481 | 13,576 | 15,283 | 16,160 | 16,724.68 | 17,394.59 | 18,091.35 | 18,816.01 | 19,569.70 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 8,599 | 9,020 | 9,344 | 10,387 | 12,483 | 11,271.16 | 11,722.64 | 12,192.19 | 12,680.56 | 13,188.49 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 7,537 | 8,544 | 9,505 | 11,055 | 11,703 | 10,916.45 | 11,353.71 | 11,808.49 | 12,281.49 | 12,773.44 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -3,670 | -3,498 | -3,347 | -3,652 | -4,009 | -4,133.74 | -4,299.32 | -4,471.54 | -4,650.65 | -4,836.93 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 155.52 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.544 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,663.90 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 17.42 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.58% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.302 |
Total Debt | 39,659 |
Total Equity | 414,289.73 |
Total Capital | 453,948.73 |
Debt Weighting | 8.74 |
Equity Weighting | 91.26 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 81,581 | 82,059 | 82,584 | 93,775 | 94,943 | 98,746.01 | 102,701.35 | 106,815.13 | 111,093.69 | 115,543.63 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 22,552 | 22,126 | 20,342 | 25,699 | 24,024 | 26,058.61 | 27,102.41 | 28,188.02 | 29,317.11 | 30,491.42 |
EBIT | 15,623 | 15,117 | 13,111 | 18,309 | 17,054 | 17,958.96 | 18,678.32 | 19,426.49 | 20,204.63 | 21,013.94 |
Tax Rate | 15.01% | 12.75% | 10.81% | 8.33% | 17.42% | 12.86% | 12.86% | 12.86% | 12.86% | 12.86% |
EBIAT | 13,277.68 | 13,189.86 | 11,693.96 | 16,783.25 | 14,083.58 | 15,648.75 | 16,275.57 | 16,927.50 | 17,605.54 | 18,310.75 |
Depreciation | 6,929 | 7,009 | 7,231 | 7,390 | 6,970 | 8,099.65 | 8,424.09 | 8,761.52 | 9,112.47 | 9,477.48 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -383 | 905 | -1,707 | -877 | -564.67 | -669.92 | -696.75 | -724.66 | -753.69 |
Inventories | - | -421 | -324 | -1,043 | -2,096 | 1,211.84 | -451.47 | -469.56 | -488.37 | -507.93 |
Accounts Payable | - | 1,007 | 961 | 1,550 | 648 | -786.55 | 437.27 | 454.78 | 473 | 491.94 |
Capital Expenditure | -3,670 | -3,498 | -3,347 | -3,652 | -4,009 | -4,133.74 | -4,299.32 | -4,471.54 | -4,650.65 | -4,836.93 |
UFCF | 16,536.68 | 16,903.86 | 17,119.96 | 19,321.25 | 14,719.58 | 19,475.27 | 19,716.21 | 20,505.96 | 21,327.34 | 22,181.62 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 18,250.65 | 17,314.63 | 16,875.81 | 16,448.12 | 16,031.26 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 84,920.47 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.71 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 22,625.25 |
Terminal Value | 480,366.29 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 347,173.79 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 432,094.26 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 25,532 |
Equity Value | 406,562.26 |
Shares Outstanding | 2,663.90 |
Equity Value Per Share | 152.62 |