Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

$155.52

+0.18 (+0.12%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 152.62 | 155.52 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	81,581	82,059	82,584	93,775	94,943	98,746.01	102,701.35	106,815.13	111,093.69	115,543.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	22,552	22,126	20,342	25,699	24,024	26,058.61	27,102.41	28,188.02	29,317.11	30,491.42
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	15,623	15,117	13,111	18,309	17,054	17,958.96	18,678.32	19,426.49	20,204.63	21,013.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	6,929	7,009	7,231	7,390	6,970	8,099.65	8,424.09	8,761.52	9,112.47	9,477.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	19,687	19,287	25,185	31,608	23,519	26,979.35	28,060.02	29,183.99	30,352.97	31,568.78
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	14,098	14,481	13,576	15,283	16,160	16,724.68	17,394.59	18,091.35	18,816.01	19,569.70
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	8,599	9,020	9,344	10,387	12,483	11,271.16	11,722.64	12,192.19	12,680.56	13,188.49
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	7,537	8,544	9,505	11,055	11,703	10,916.45	11,353.71	11,808.49	12,281.49	12,773.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-3,670	-3,498	-3,347	-3,652	-4,009	-4,133.74	-4,299.32	-4,471.54	-4,650.65	-4,836.93
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 155.52
Beta	0.544
Diluted Shares Outstanding	2,663.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	17.42
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.58%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.302
Total Debt	39,659
Total Equity	414,289.73
Total Capital	453,948.73
Debt Weighting	8.74
Equity Weighting	91.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	81,581	82,059	82,584	93,775	94,943	98,746.01	102,701.35	106,815.13	111,093.69	115,543.63
EBITDA	22,552	22,126	20,342	25,699	24,024	26,058.61	27,102.41	28,188.02	29,317.11	30,491.42
EBIT	15,623	15,117	13,111	18,309	17,054	17,958.96	18,678.32	19,426.49	20,204.63	21,013.94
Tax Rate	15.01%	12.75%	10.81%	8.33%	17.42%	12.86%	12.86%	12.86%	12.86%	12.86%
EBIAT	13,277.68	13,189.86	11,693.96	16,783.25	14,083.58	15,648.75	16,275.57	16,927.50	17,605.54	18,310.75
Depreciation	6,929	7,009	7,231	7,390	6,970	8,099.65	8,424.09	8,761.52	9,112.47	9,477.48
Accounts Receivable	-	-383	905	-1,707	-877	-564.67	-669.92	-696.75	-724.66	-753.69
Inventories	-	-421	-324	-1,043	-2,096	1,211.84	-451.47	-469.56	-488.37	-507.93
Accounts Payable	-	1,007	961	1,550	648	-786.55	437.27	454.78	473	491.94
Capital Expenditure	-3,670	-3,498	-3,347	-3,652	-4,009	-4,133.74	-4,299.32	-4,471.54	-4,650.65	-4,836.93
UFCF	16,536.68	16,903.86	17,119.96	19,321.25	14,719.58	19,475.27	19,716.21	20,505.96	21,327.34	22,181.62
WACC
PV UFCF						18,250.65	17,314.63	16,875.81	16,448.12	16,031.26
SUM PV UFCF										84,920.47

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.71
Free cash flow (t + 1)	22,625.25
Terminal Value	480,366.29
Present Value of Terminal Value	347,173.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	432,094.26
Net Debt	25,532
Equity Value	406,562.26
Shares Outstanding	2,663.90
Equity Value Per Share	152.62