Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

$155.52

+0.18 (+0.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 152.62 | 155.52 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 81,58182,05982,58493,77594,94398,746.01102,701.35106,815.13111,093.69115,543.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 22,55222,12620,34225,69924,02426,058.6127,102.4128,188.0229,317.1130,491.42
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 15,62315,11713,11118,30917,05417,958.9618,678.3219,426.4920,204.6321,013.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6,9297,0097,2317,3906,9708,099.658,424.098,761.529,112.479,477.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 19,68719,28725,18531,60823,51926,979.3528,060.0229,183.9930,352.9731,568.78
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 14,09814,48113,57615,28316,16016,724.6817,394.5918,091.3518,816.0119,569.70
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 8,5999,0209,34410,38712,48311,271.1611,722.6412,192.1912,680.5613,188.49
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7,5378,5449,50511,05511,70310,916.4511,353.7111,808.4912,281.4912,773.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,670-3,498-3,347-3,652-4,009-4,133.74-4,299.32-4,471.54-4,650.65-4,836.93
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 155.52
Beta 0.544
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,663.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.42
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.58%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.302
Total Debt 39,659
Total Equity 414,289.73
Total Capital 453,948.73
Debt Weighting 8.74
Equity Weighting 91.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 81,58182,05982,58493,77594,94398,746.01102,701.35106,815.13111,093.69115,543.63
EBITDA 22,55222,12620,34225,69924,02426,058.6127,102.4128,188.0229,317.1130,491.42
EBIT 15,62315,11713,11118,30917,05417,958.9618,678.3219,426.4920,204.6321,013.94
Tax Rate 15.01%12.75%10.81%8.33%17.42%12.86%12.86%12.86%12.86%12.86%
EBIAT 13,277.6813,189.8611,693.9616,783.2514,083.5815,648.7516,275.5716,927.5017,605.5418,310.75
Depreciation 6,9297,0097,2317,3906,9708,099.658,424.098,761.529,112.479,477.48
Accounts Receivable --383905-1,707-877-564.67-669.92-696.75-724.66-753.69
Inventories --421-324-1,043-2,0961,211.84-451.47-469.56-488.37-507.93
Accounts Payable -1,0079611,550648-786.55437.27454.78473491.94
Capital Expenditure -3,670-3,498-3,347-3,652-4,009-4,133.74-4,299.32-4,471.54-4,650.65-4,836.93
UFCF 16,536.6816,903.8617,119.9619,321.2514,719.5819,475.2719,716.2120,505.9621,327.3422,181.62
WACC
PV UFCF 18,250.6517,314.6316,875.8116,448.1216,031.26
SUM PV UFCF 84,920.47

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.71
Free cash flow (t + 1) 22,625.25
Terminal Value 480,366.29
Present Value of Terminal Value 347,173.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 432,094.26
Net Debt 25,532
Equity Value 406,562.26
Shares Outstanding 2,663.90
Equity Value Per Share 152.62