Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

$176.94

-5.18 (-2.84%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 181.43 | 176.94 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 76,45081,58182,05985,053.1388,156.5091,373.1194,707.0898,162.71101,744.42105,456.81109,304.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 24,24925,93324,65526,523.0427,490.8028,493.8729,533.5430,611.1431,728.0732,885.7534,085.66
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 18,60719,00417,64619,601.1920,316.3921,057.6821,826.0222,622.4023,447.8424,303.3925,190.16
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5,6426,9297,0096,921.857,174.417,436.197,707.527,988.748,280.238,582.368,895.51
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 18,29619,68719,28720,290.1721,030.5121,797.8622,593.2123,417.5824,272.0325,157.6526,075.59
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13,49014,09814,48114,905.1515,44916,012.7016,596.9617,202.5417,830.2218,480.8019,155.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 8,7658,5999,0209,355.159,696.4910,050.2910,41710,797.0911,191.0511,599.3912,022.62
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7,3107,5378,5448,282.058,584.248,897.469,222.109,558.599,907.3610,268.8610,643.54
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,279-3,670-3,498-3,699.94-3,834.94-3,974.87-4,119.90-4,270.23-4,426.04-4,587.53-4,754.92
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 176.94
Beta 0.658
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,674
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.33
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.50%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.313
Total Debt 33,751
Total Equity 473,137.56
Total Capital 506,888.56
Debt Weighting 6.66
Equity Weighting 93.34
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 76,45081,58182,05985,053.1388,156.5091,373.1194,707.0898,162.71101,744.42105,456.81109,304.67
EBITDA 24,24925,93324,65526,523.0427,490.8028,493.8729,533.5430,611.1431,728.0732,885.7534,085.66
EBIT 18,60719,00417,64619,601.1920,316.3921,057.6821,826.0222,622.4023,447.8424,303.3925,190.16
Tax Rate 92.64%15.01%12.75%27.91%10.81%8.33%27.91%27.91%27.91%27.91%27.91%
EBIAT 1,368.7016,151.1315,396.4614,130.6718,120.5919,302.8815,734.5716,308.6916,903.7517,520.5318,159.81
Depreciation 5,6426,9297,0096,921.857,174.417,436.197,707.527,988.748,280.238,582.368,895.51
Accounts Receivable --608-383-424.15-543.85-563.70-584.26-605.58-627.68-650.58-674.32
Inventories -166-421-335.15-341.35-353.80-366.71-380.09-393.96-408.33-423.23
Accounts Payable -2271,007-261.95302.19313.22324.65336.49348.77361.49374.68
Capital Expenditure -3,279-3,670-3,498-3,699.94-3,347-3,652-4,119.90-4,270.23-4,426.04-4,587.53-4,754.92
UFCF 3,731.7019,195.1319,110.4616,331.3320,877.0522,159.9118,695.8619,378.0220,085.0820,817.9321,577.52
WACC
PV UFCF 17,299.7720,877.0520,919.3916,661.2416,302.4415,951.3615,607.8415,271.71
SUM PV UFCF 84,526.41

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) 22,009.08
Terminal Value 560,027.37
Present Value of Terminal Value 419,869.56

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 504,395.97
Net Debt 19,264
Equity Value 485,131.97
Shares Outstanding 2,674
Equity Value Per Share 181.43