Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
China Finance Online Co. Limited (JRJC)
$3.99
-2.48 (-38.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 83.06 | 42.62 | 45.48 | 35.52 | 40.03 | 34.91 | 30.45 | 26.55 | 23.15 | 20.19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 4.52 | -34.30 | -18.20 | -9.83 | -9.61 | -11.64 | -10.15 | -8.85 | -7.72 | -6.73 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 2.48 | -36.41 | -19.90 | -11.05 | -10.74 | -12.86 | -11.21 | -9.78 | -8.53 | -7.43 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2.04 | 2.11 | 1.70 | 1.21 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 1.06 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 82.60 | 39.23 | 12.49 | 10.75 | 6.15 | 18.47 | 16.11 | 14.05 | 12.25 | 10.68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 21.97 | 16.99 | 24.85 | 26.16 | 24.90 | 17.93 | 15.64 | 13.64 | 11.89 | 10.37 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 8.75 | 9.46 | 2.95 | 6.67 | 4.02 | 4.75 | 4.14 | 3.61 | 3.15 | 2.75 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4.60 | -2.47 | -0.34 | -1.55 | -0.06 | -1.16 | -1.01 | -0.88 | -0.77 | -0.67 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.99 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.377 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 11.47 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 8.45 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.58% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.026 |
| Total Debt | 4.92 |
| Total Equity | 45.76 |
| Total Capital | 50.68 |
| Debt Weighting | 9.71 |
| Equity Weighting | 90.29 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 83.06 | 42.62 | 45.48 | 35.52 | 40.03 | 34.91 | 30.45 | 26.55 | 23.15 | 20.19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 4.52 | -34.30 | -18.20 | -9.83 | -9.61 | -11.64 | -10.15 | -8.85 | -7.72 | -6.73 |
| EBIT | 2.48 | -36.41 | -19.90 | -11.05 | -10.74 | -12.86 | -11.21 | -9.78 | -8.53 | -7.43 |
| Tax Rate | 75.33% | 12.67% | 11.01% | 10.09% | 8.45% | 23.51% | 23.51% | 23.51% | 23.51% | 23.51% |
| EBIAT | 0.61 | -31.80 | -17.71 | -9.93 | -9.83 | -9.83 | -8.57 | -7.48 | -6.52 | -5.69 |
| Depreciation | 2.04 | 2.11 | 1.70 | 1.21 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 1.06 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 4.98 | -7.86 | -1.31 | 1.26 | 6.97 | 2.29 | 2 | 1.74 | 1.52 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.72 | -6.51 | 3.72 | -2.64 | 0.73 | -0.61 | -0.53 | -0.46 | -0.40 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4.60 | -2.47 | -0.34 | -1.55 | -0.06 | -1.16 | -1.01 | -0.88 | -0.77 | -0.67 |
| UFCF | -1.95 | -26.47 | -30.73 | -7.86 | -10.15 | -2.08 | -6.84 | -5.97 | -5.20 | -4.54 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -1.90 | -5.71 | -4.54 | -3.62 | -2.88 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -18.66 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.50 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -4.63 |
| Terminal Value | -61.72 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -39.20 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -57.86 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -1.23 |
| Equity Value | -56.63 |
| Shares Outstanding | 11.47 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -4.94 |