Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

China Finance Online Co. Limited (JRJC)

$3.99

-2.48 (-38.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -4.94 | 3.99 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 83.0642.6245.4835.5240.0334.9130.4526.5523.1520.19
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4.52-34.30-18.20-9.83-9.61-11.64-10.15-8.85-7.72-6.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2.48-36.41-19.90-11.05-10.74-12.86-11.21-9.78-8.53-7.43
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.042.111.701.211.131.211.060.920.800.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 82.6039.2312.4910.756.1518.4716.1114.0512.2510.68
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 21.9716.9924.8526.1624.9017.9315.6413.6411.8910.37
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8.759.462.956.674.024.754.143.613.152.75
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.60-2.47-0.34-1.55-0.06-1.16-1.01-0.88-0.77-0.67
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.99
Beta 1.377
Diluted Shares Outstanding 11.47
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.45
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.58%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.026
Total Debt 4.92
Total Equity 45.76
Total Capital 50.68
Debt Weighting 9.71
Equity Weighting 90.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 83.0642.6245.4835.5240.0334.9130.4526.5523.1520.19
EBITDA 4.52-34.30-18.20-9.83-9.61-11.64-10.15-8.85-7.72-6.73
EBIT 2.48-36.41-19.90-11.05-10.74-12.86-11.21-9.78-8.53-7.43
Tax Rate 75.33%12.67%11.01%10.09%8.45%23.51%23.51%23.51%23.51%23.51%
EBIAT 0.61-31.80-17.71-9.93-9.83-9.83-8.57-7.48-6.52-5.69
Depreciation 2.042.111.701.211.131.211.060.920.800.70
Accounts Receivable -4.98-7.86-1.311.266.972.2921.741.52
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.72-6.513.72-2.640.73-0.61-0.53-0.46-0.40
Capital Expenditure -4.60-2.47-0.34-1.55-0.06-1.16-1.01-0.88-0.77-0.67
UFCF -1.95-26.47-30.73-7.86-10.15-2.08-6.84-5.97-5.20-4.54
WACC
PV UFCF -1.90-5.71-4.54-3.62-2.88
SUM PV UFCF -18.66

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.50
Free cash flow (t + 1) -4.63
Terminal Value -61.72
Present Value of Terminal Value -39.20

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -57.86
Net Debt -1.23
Equity Value -56.63
Shares Outstanding 11.47
Equity Value Per Share -4.94