Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
China Finance Online Co. Limited (JRJC)
$3.99
-2.48 (-%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
Revenue | 83.06 | 42.62 | 45.48 | 35.52 | 40.03 | 34.91 | 30.45 | 26.55 | 23.15 | 20.19 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 4.52 | -34.30 | -18.20 | -9.83 | -9.61 | -11.64 | -10.15 | -8.85 | -7.72 | -6.73 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 2.48 | -36.41 | -19.90 | -11.05 | -10.74 | -12.86 | -11.21 | -9.78 | -8.53 | -7.43 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 2.04 | 2.11 | 1.70 | 1.21 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 1.06 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
Total Cash | 82.60 | 39.23 | 12.49 | 10.75 | 6.15 | 18.47 | 16.11 | 14.05 | 12.25 | 10.68 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 21.97 | 16.99 | 24.85 | 26.16 | 24.90 | 17.93 | 15.64 | 13.64 | 11.89 | 10.37 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 8.75 | 9.46 | 2.95 | 6.67 | 4.02 | 4.75 | 4.14 | 3.61 | 3.15 | 2.75 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -4.60 | -2.47 | -0.34 | -1.55 | -0.06 | -1.16 | -1.01 | -0.88 | -0.77 | -0.67 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 3.99 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.377 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 11.47 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 8.45 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.58% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.137 |
Total Debt | 4.92 |
Total Equity | 45.76 |
Total Capital | 50.68 |
Debt Weighting | 9.71 |
Equity Weighting | 90.29 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
Revenue | 83.06 | 42.62 | 45.48 | 35.52 | 40.03 | 34.91 | 30.45 | 26.55 | 23.15 | 20.19 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 4.52 | -34.30 | -18.20 | -9.83 | -9.61 | -11.64 | -10.15 | -8.85 | -7.72 | -6.73 |
EBIT | 2.48 | -36.41 | -19.90 | -11.05 | -10.74 | -12.86 | -11.21 | -9.78 | -8.53 | -7.43 |
Tax Rate | 75.33% | 12.67% | 11.01% | 10.09% | 8.45% | 23.51% | 23.51% | 23.51% | 23.51% | 23.51% |
EBIAT | 0.61 | -31.80 | -17.71 | -9.93 | -9.83 | -9.83 | -8.57 | -7.48 | -6.52 | -5.69 |
Depreciation | 2.04 | 2.11 | 1.70 | 1.21 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 1.06 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 4.98 | -7.86 | -1.31 | 1.26 | 6.97 | 2.29 | 2 | 1.74 | 1.52 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | 0.72 | -6.51 | 3.72 | -2.64 | 0.73 | -0.61 | -0.53 | -0.46 | -0.40 |
Capital Expenditure | -4.60 | -2.47 | -0.34 | -1.55 | -0.06 | -1.16 | -1.01 | -0.88 | -0.77 | -0.67 |
UFCF | -1.95 | -26.47 | -30.73 | -7.86 | -10.15 | -2.08 | -6.84 | -5.97 | -5.20 | -4.54 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -1.90 | -5.70 | -4.53 | -3.61 | -2.87 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -18.61 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.60 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -4.63 |
Terminal Value | -60.90 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -38.51 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -57.12 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -1.23 |
Equity Value | -55.88 |
Shares Outstanding | 11.47 |
Equity Value Per Share | -4.87 |