Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Kaman Corporation (KAMN)
$24.28
+0.39 (+1.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,805.91 | 1,875.42 | 761.61 | 784.46 | 708.99 | 598.81 | 505.76 | 427.16 | 360.78 | 304.72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 157.43 | 137.36 | 237.03 | -14.30 | 113.45 | 73.47 | 62.05 | 52.41 | 44.26 | 37.38 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 114.96 | 95.33 | 211.17 | -58.20 | 76.80 | 51.01 | 43.08 | 36.38 | 30.73 | 25.95 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 42.47 | 42.03 | 25.85 | 43.90 | 36.65 | 22.46 | 18.97 | 16.02 | 13.53 | 11.43 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 36.90 | 27.71 | 471.54 | 104.38 | 140.80 | 118.09 | 99.74 | 84.24 | 71.15 | 60.09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 316.34 | 411.71 | 278.11 | 262.45 | 185.88 | 162.47 | 137.22 | 115.90 | 97.89 | 82.67 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 367.44 | 294.91 | 156.35 | 185.07 | 193.10 | 128.66 | 108.67 | 91.78 | 77.52 | 65.47 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 127.59 | 158.63 | 70.88 | 60.20 | 42.13 | 46.05 | 38.89 | 32.85 | 27.74 | 23.43 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -27.63 | -29.87 | -22.45 | -17.78 | -17.53 | -12.95 | -10.93 | -9.23 | -7.80 | -6.59 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 24.28 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.981 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 27.89 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 27.82 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.77% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.149 |
| Total Debt | 203.69 |
| Total Equity | 677.19 |
| Total Capital | 880.89 |
| Debt Weighting | 23.12 |
| Equity Weighting | 76.88 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,805.91 | 1,875.42 | 761.61 | 784.46 | 708.99 | 598.81 | 505.76 | 427.16 | 360.78 | 304.72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 157.43 | 137.36 | 237.03 | -14.30 | 113.45 | 73.47 | 62.05 | 52.41 | 44.26 | 37.38 |
| EBIT | 114.96 | 95.33 | 211.17 | -58.20 | 76.80 | 51.01 | 43.08 | 36.38 | 30.73 | 25.95 |
| Tax Rate | 47.21% | 28.00% | -416.99% | 10.77% | 27.82% | -60.64% | -60.64% | -60.64% | -60.64% | -60.64% |
| EBIAT | 60.69 | 68.64 | 1,091.73 | -51.93 | 55.43 | 81.93 | 69.20 | 58.45 | 49.36 | 41.69 |
| Depreciation | 42.47 | 42.03 | 25.85 | 43.90 | 36.65 | 22.46 | 18.97 | 16.02 | 13.53 | 11.43 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -95.37 | 133.60 | 15.66 | 76.57 | 23.41 | 25.25 | 21.32 | 18.01 | 15.21 |
| Inventories | - | 72.52 | 138.56 | -28.72 | -8.03 | 64.44 | 19.99 | 16.89 | 14.26 | 12.05 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 31.04 | -87.74 | -10.68 | -18.07 | 3.91 | -7.16 | -6.04 | -5.10 | -4.31 |
| Capital Expenditure | -27.63 | -29.87 | -22.45 | -17.78 | -17.53 | -12.95 | -10.93 | -9.23 | -7.80 | -6.59 |
| UFCF | 75.53 | 88.99 | 1,279.55 | -49.56 | 125.04 | 183.21 | 115.32 | 97.40 | 82.27 | 69.48 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 170.27 | 99.61 | 78.19 | 61.37 | 48.17 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 457.61 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.60 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 70.87 |
| Terminal Value | 1,265.55 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 877.44 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,335.05 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 62.89 |
| Equity Value | 1,272.15 |
| Shares Outstanding | 27.89 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 45.61 |