Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

KB Home (KBH)

$29.65

+1.19 (+4.18%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -19.77 | 29.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,368.534,5474,552.754,183.175,724.936,196.536,706.977,259.467,857.478,504.73
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 299.09370.49375.33392.44723.99560.99607.20657.22711.36769.96
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 296.30367.97348.18364.04695.35537.50581.78629.70681.58737.72
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.792.5327.1628.4028.6423.4925.4227.5229.7832.24
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 720.86575.12454.86682.53292.14750.51812.34879.26951.691,030.08
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 232.11281.60240.36263.75292.68349.52378.31409.48443.21479.72
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,263.393,582.843,704.603,897.484,802.835,105.105,525.635,980.816,473.497,006.74
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 214.43259.54264.83276374.51366.50396.69429.37464.74503.02
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -8.09-7.37-40.46-28.84-39.40-32.39-35.06-37.94-41.07-44.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.65
Beta 1.587
Diluted Shares Outstanding 93.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.78
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.06%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.380
Total Debt 1,714.31
Total Equity 2,774.85
Total Capital 4,489.16
Debt Weighting 38.19
Equity Weighting 61.81
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,368.534,5474,552.754,183.175,724.936,196.536,706.977,259.467,857.478,504.73
EBITDA 299.09370.49375.33392.44723.99560.99607.20657.22711.36769.96
EBIT 296.30367.97348.18364.04695.35537.50581.78629.70681.58737.72
Tax Rate 37.72%53.70%22.80%18.62%18.78%30.33%30.33%30.33%30.33%30.33%
EBIAT 184.52170.37268.78296.24564.75374.49405.34438.73474.87513.99
Depreciation 2.792.5327.1628.4028.6423.4925.4227.5229.7832.24
Accounts Receivable --49.4941.24-23.39-28.93-56.85-28.79-31.16-33.73-36.51
Inventories --319.45-121.76-192.88-905.35-302.27-420.54-455.18-492.67-533.26
Accounts Payable -45.115.2911.1798.51-8.0130.1932.6835.3738.28
Capital Expenditure -8.09-7.37-40.46-28.84-39.40-32.39-35.06-37.94-41.07-44.45
UFCF 179.23-158.31180.2490.70-281.77-1.54-23.43-25.36-27.45-29.71
WACC
PV UFCF -1.42-20.10-20.15-20.20-20.25
SUM PV UFCF -82.13

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.97
Free cash flow (t + 1) -30.31
Terminal Value -507.68
Present Value of Terminal Value -346

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -428.13
Net Debt 1,422.17
Equity Value -1,850.30
Shares Outstanding 93.59
Equity Value Per Share -19.77