Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Keyera Corp. (KEY.TO)

$30.59

-0.05 (-0.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -47.41 | 30.59 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,413.364,465.213,616.923,012.514,984.915,739.886,609.197,610.178,762.7410,089.87
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 633.09807.31851.19494.60852.811,075.501,238.391,425.951,641.911,890.58
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 467.11600.59572.90204.18595.17708.21815.47938.971,081.181,244.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 165.98206.72278.29290.42257.64367.29422.92486.97560.73645.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 326.38426.96345.85288.05476.65548.84631.96727.67837.88964.78
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 435.62422.75488.59447.72750.42753.69867.84999.281,150.621,324.88
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 147.83235.5693.68162.82280.74266.71307.10353.61407.17468.84
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 505.81476.59463.36347.89650.39722.06831.41957.331,102.321,269.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -760.11-1,320.52-1,091.80-594.16-516.63-1,287.06-1,481.98-1,706.43-1,964.88-2,262.46
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 30.59
Beta 2.253
Diluted Shares Outstanding 221.02
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.94
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.48%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.174
Total Debt 3,697.78
Total Equity 6,761.09
Total Capital 10,458.87
Debt Weighting 35.36
Equity Weighting 64.64
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,413.364,465.213,616.923,012.514,984.915,739.886,609.197,610.178,762.7410,089.87
EBITDA 633.09807.31851.19494.60852.811,075.501,238.391,425.951,641.911,890.58
EBIT 467.11600.59572.90204.18595.17708.21815.47938.971,081.181,244.93
Tax Rate 26.55%24.90%3.65%15.20%23.94%18.85%18.85%18.85%18.85%18.85%
EBIAT 343.09451.07552173.14452.67574.73661.77762877.401,010.29
Depreciation 165.98206.72278.29290.42257.64367.29422.92486.97560.73645.65
Accounts Receivable -12.87-65.8440.86-302.70-3.27-114.15-131.44-151.34-174.26
Inventories --87.72141.87-69.14-117.9114.03-40.39-46.51-53.56-61.67
Accounts Payable --29.23-13.23-115.46302.5071.67109.36125.92144.99166.95
Capital Expenditure -760.11-1,320.52-1,091.80-594.16-516.63-1,287.06-1,481.98-1,706.43-1,964.88-2,262.46
UFCF -251.04-766.81-198.71-274.3575.57-262.62-442.48-509.49-586.65-675.50
WACC
PV UFCF -237.90-363.10-378.75-395.06-412.08
SUM PV UFCF -1,786.89

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.39
Free cash flow (t + 1) -689.01
Terminal Value -8,212.33
Present Value of Terminal Value -5,009.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -6,796.66
Net Debt 3,681.84
Equity Value -10,478.49
Shares Outstanding 221.02
Equity Value Per Share -47.41