Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Keyera Corp. (KEY.TO)

$30.59

-0.05 (-0.16%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -47.41 | 30.59 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	3,413.36	4,465.21	3,616.92	3,012.51	4,984.91	5,739.88	6,609.19	7,610.17	8,762.74	10,089.87
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	633.09	807.31	851.19	494.60	852.81	1,075.50	1,238.39	1,425.95	1,641.91	1,890.58
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	467.11	600.59	572.90	204.18	595.17	708.21	815.47	938.97	1,081.18	1,244.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	165.98	206.72	278.29	290.42	257.64	367.29	422.92	486.97	560.73	645.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	326.38	426.96	345.85	288.05	476.65	548.84	631.96	727.67	837.88	964.78
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	435.62	422.75	488.59	447.72	750.42	753.69	867.84	999.28	1,150.62	1,324.88
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	147.83	235.56	93.68	162.82	280.74	266.71	307.10	353.61	407.17	468.84
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	505.81	476.59	463.36	347.89	650.39	722.06	831.41	957.33	1,102.32	1,269.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-760.11	-1,320.52	-1,091.80	-594.16	-516.63	-1,287.06	-1,481.98	-1,706.43	-1,964.88	-2,262.46
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 30.59
Beta	2.253
Diluted Shares Outstanding	221.02
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	23.94
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.48%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	14.174
Total Debt	3,697.78
Total Equity	6,761.09
Total Capital	10,458.87
Debt Weighting	35.36
Equity Weighting	64.64
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	3,413.36	4,465.21	3,616.92	3,012.51	4,984.91	5,739.88	6,609.19	7,610.17	8,762.74	10,089.87
EBITDA	633.09	807.31	851.19	494.60	852.81	1,075.50	1,238.39	1,425.95	1,641.91	1,890.58
EBIT	467.11	600.59	572.90	204.18	595.17	708.21	815.47	938.97	1,081.18	1,244.93
Tax Rate	26.55%	24.90%	3.65%	15.20%	23.94%	18.85%	18.85%	18.85%	18.85%	18.85%
EBIAT	343.09	451.07	552	173.14	452.67	574.73	661.77	762	877.40	1,010.29
Depreciation	165.98	206.72	278.29	290.42	257.64	367.29	422.92	486.97	560.73	645.65
Accounts Receivable	-	12.87	-65.84	40.86	-302.70	-3.27	-114.15	-131.44	-151.34	-174.26
Inventories	-	-87.72	141.87	-69.14	-117.91	14.03	-40.39	-46.51	-53.56	-61.67
Accounts Payable	-	-29.23	-13.23	-115.46	302.50	71.67	109.36	125.92	144.99	166.95
Capital Expenditure	-760.11	-1,320.52	-1,091.80	-594.16	-516.63	-1,287.06	-1,481.98	-1,706.43	-1,964.88	-2,262.46
UFCF	-251.04	-766.81	-198.71	-274.35	75.57	-262.62	-442.48	-509.49	-586.65	-675.50
WACC
PV UFCF						-237.90	-363.10	-378.75	-395.06	-412.08
SUM PV UFCF										-1,786.89

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.39
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-689.01
Terminal Value	-8,212.33
Present Value of Terminal Value	-5,009.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-6,796.66
Net Debt	3,681.84
Equity Value	-10,478.49
Shares Outstanding	221.02
Equity Value Per Share	-47.41