Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)

$4.02

+0.07 (+1.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -3.48 | 4.02 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,3033,212.603,497.304,213.403,729.403,870.314,016.554,168.314,325.814,489.26
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,328.10959.701,773.502,714.101,384.301,720.951,785.971,853.461,923.491,996.17
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -----1,720.951,785.971,853.461,923.491,996.17
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,025.80349575.101,210.90531.50784.55814.20844.96876.89910.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 104.30150.60137.7095.20176.20145.27150.76156.45162.36168.50
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,094.301,0521,053.801,072.901,151.301,179.231,223.791,270.031,318.021,367.82
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 77.4089.1089.3089.1087.8093.9697.51101.20105.02108.99
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -897.60-1,043.40-1,105.20-916.10-938.60-1,069.49-1,109.90-1,151.83-1,195.35-1,240.52
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.02
Beta 0.932
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,269.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 52.88
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.166
Total Debt 1,684.70
Total Equity 5,101.78
Total Capital 6,786.48
Debt Weighting 24.82
Equity Weighting 75.18
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,3033,212.603,497.304,213.403,729.403,870.314,016.554,168.314,325.814,489.26
EBITDA 1,328.10959.701,773.502,714.101,384.301,720.951,785.971,853.461,923.491,996.17
EBIT -----1,720.951,785.971,853.461,923.491,996.17
Tax Rate -6.30%120.85%25.44%25.36%52.88%43.64%43.64%43.64%43.64%43.64%
EBIAT -----969.841,006.491,044.521,083.981,124.94
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable --46.3012.9042.50-8130.93-5.49-5.70-5.91-6.13
Inventories -42.30-1.80-19.10-78.40-27.93-44.56-46.24-47.99-49.80
Accounts Payable -11.700.20-0.20-1.306.163.553.683.823.97
Capital Expenditure -897.60-1,043.40-1,105.20-916.10-938.60-1,069.49-1,109.90-1,151.83-1,195.35-1,240.52
UFCF ------90.48-149.90-155.57-161.44-167.54
WACC
PV UFCF -84.85-131.84-128.31-124.88-121.54
SUM PV UFCF -591.44

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.63
Free cash flow (t + 1) -170.90
Terminal Value -3,691.04
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,677.64

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -3,269.07
Net Debt 1,153.20
Equity Value -4,422.27
Shares Outstanding 1,269.10
Equity Value Per Share -3.48