Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)
$4.02
+0.07 (+1.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,303 | 3,212.60 | 3,497.30 | 4,213.40 | 3,729.40 | 3,870.31 | 4,016.55 | 4,168.31 | 4,325.81 | 4,489.26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,328.10 | 959.70 | 1,773.50 | 2,714.10 | 1,384.30 | 1,720.95 | 1,785.97 | 1,853.46 | 1,923.49 | 1,996.17 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 1,720.95 | 1,785.97 | 1,853.46 | 1,923.49 | 1,996.17 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,025.80 | 349 | 575.10 | 1,210.90 | 531.50 | 784.55 | 814.20 | 844.96 | 876.89 | 910.02 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 104.30 | 150.60 | 137.70 | 95.20 | 176.20 | 145.27 | 150.76 | 156.45 | 162.36 | 168.50 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1,094.30 | 1,052 | 1,053.80 | 1,072.90 | 1,151.30 | 1,179.23 | 1,223.79 | 1,270.03 | 1,318.02 | 1,367.82 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 77.40 | 89.10 | 89.30 | 89.10 | 87.80 | 93.96 | 97.51 | 101.20 | 105.02 | 108.99 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -897.60 | -1,043.40 | -1,105.20 | -916.10 | -938.60 | -1,069.49 | -1,109.90 | -1,151.83 | -1,195.35 | -1,240.52 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 4.02 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.932 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,269.10 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 52.88 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.166 |
| Total Debt | 1,684.70 |
| Total Equity | 5,101.78 |
| Total Capital | 6,786.48 |
| Debt Weighting | 24.82 |
| Equity Weighting | 75.18 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,303 | 3,212.60 | 3,497.30 | 4,213.40 | 3,729.40 | 3,870.31 | 4,016.55 | 4,168.31 | 4,325.81 | 4,489.26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,328.10 | 959.70 | 1,773.50 | 2,714.10 | 1,384.30 | 1,720.95 | 1,785.97 | 1,853.46 | 1,923.49 | 1,996.17 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 1,720.95 | 1,785.97 | 1,853.46 | 1,923.49 | 1,996.17 |
| Tax Rate | -6.30% | 120.85% | 25.44% | 25.36% | 52.88% | 43.64% | 43.64% | 43.64% | 43.64% | 43.64% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | 969.84 | 1,006.49 | 1,044.52 | 1,083.98 | 1,124.94 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -46.30 | 12.90 | 42.50 | -81 | 30.93 | -5.49 | -5.70 | -5.91 | -6.13 |
| Inventories | - | 42.30 | -1.80 | -19.10 | -78.40 | -27.93 | -44.56 | -46.24 | -47.99 | -49.80 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 11.70 | 0.20 | -0.20 | -1.30 | 6.16 | 3.55 | 3.68 | 3.82 | 3.97 |
| Capital Expenditure | -897.60 | -1,043.40 | -1,105.20 | -916.10 | -938.60 | -1,069.49 | -1,109.90 | -1,151.83 | -1,195.35 | -1,240.52 |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -90.48 | -149.90 | -155.57 | -161.44 | -167.54 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -84.85 | -131.84 | -128.31 | -124.88 | -121.54 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -591.44 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.63 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -170.90 |
| Terminal Value | -3,691.04 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -2,677.64 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -3,269.07 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,153.20 |
| Equity Value | -4,422.27 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,269.10 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -3.48 |