Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

KION GROUP AG (KGX.DE)

42.1 €

-0.58 (-1.36%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 255.10 | 42.1 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,995.708,806.508,341.6010,294.3011,135.6012,150.1413,257.1114,464.9315,782.8017,220.73
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,590.401,667.501,397.801,803.901,298.102,059.772,247.432,452.182,675.602,919.36
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 692.50769.50460863264.60818.26892.81974.151,062.901,159.74
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 897.90898937.80940.901,033.501,241.511,354.621,478.041,612.701,759.62
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 211.40249359.80517.60355.90437.62477.49520.99568.46620.25
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1.161.271.211.491.611.761.922.092.282.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 967.101,058.401,061.401,566.801,742.601,645.291,795.191,958.752,137.212,331.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 904.20975.90910.501,443.701,124.301,395.471,522.611,661.331,812.691,977.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -258.50-287.40-283.80-333.80-365.84-399.17-435.54-475.22-518.52-565.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 42.1
Beta 1.970
Diluted Shares Outstanding 118.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 28.99
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.08%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.630
Total Debt 5,979.20
Total Equity 5,005.69
Total Capital 10,984.89
Debt Weighting 54.43
Equity Weighting 45.57
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,995.708,806.508,341.6010,294.3011,135.6012,150.1413,257.1114,464.9315,782.8017,220.73
EBITDA 1,590.401,667.501,397.801,803.901,298.102,059.772,247.432,452.182,675.602,919.36
EBIT 692.50769.50460863264.60818.26892.81974.151,062.901,159.74
Tax Rate 26.66%26.83%28.61%25.19%28.99%27.26%27.26%27.26%27.26%27.26%
EBIAT 507.85563.01328.38645.57187.90595.21649.44708.61773.17843.61
Depreciation 897.90898937.80940.901,033.501,241.511,354.621,478.041,612.701,759.62
Accounts Receivable --0.120.07-0.28-0.12-0.15-0.16-0.17-0.19-0.21
Inventories --91.30-3-505.40-175.8097.31-149.90-163.56-178.46-194.72
Accounts Payable -71.70-65.40533.20-319.40271.17127.14138.72151.36165.15
Capital Expenditure -258.50-287.40-283.80-333.80-365.84-399.17-435.54-475.22-518.52-565.76
UFCF 1,147.251,153.90914.041,280.19360.241,805.881,545.601,686.421,840.062,007.71
WACC
PV UFCF 1,673.811,327.811,342.831,358.031,373.39
SUM PV UFCF 7,075.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.89
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,067.94
Terminal Value 42,289.13
Present Value of Terminal Value 28,928.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 36,004.16
Net Debt 5,673
Equity Value 30,331.16
Shares Outstanding 118.90
Equity Value Per Share 255.10